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油价飙也挡不住!欧元区9月企业活动创逾三年新高 ECB下月再升息有底气

2026-09-23 19:35:58 网络 阅读(1)

欧元区9月民间企业活动意外加速,扩张速度创逾三年新高。服务业回温,加上制造业持续成长,显示经济迄今仍能抵御美伊战争推升能源价格的冲击,但企业成本与物价压力同步上升,也让欧洲央行(ECB)再度升息的可能性提高。

油价飙也挡不住!欧元区9月企业活动创逾三年新高 ECB下月再升息有底气

综合外媒周三(23日)报导,标普全球(S&P Global)公布,欧元区9月综合采购经理人指数(PMI)初值由8月的52.0升至53.1,为2023年4月以来最高,优于市场预期的51.7。指数高于50代表企业活动扩张。

服务业PMI由51.6升至53.0,创近一年新高,原先市场预期会降至51.5;制造业PMI则持平于52.7,但纳入综合指数的制造业产出指标由53.3小升至53.4。整体新订单以逾四年来最快速度增加,出口订单也持续成长,带动企业增聘人手。

欧元区两大经济体表现也优于预期。德国企业活动扩张速度为2025年10月以来最快,法国则意外写下逾两年来最强劲的成长。标普全球首席商业经济学家威廉森(Chris Williamson)表示,AI与国防支出带动以德国为首的制造业,服务业也开始回温,反映经济改善范围扩大。

然而,能源涨价正推高企业投入成本,部分业者已将成本转嫁给客户。威廉森指出,9月通膨压力再起并不令人意外;经济在地缘政治风险与物价上涨下保持韧性,可能让ECB更有信心在年底前再度升息,10月升息也已成为可能选项。

ECB本月已升息,为美伊战争爆发后第二次,并将今年欧元区成长预测上修至0.9%。经济合作暨发展组织(OECD)周三也将欧元区2026年成长预测上调0.2个百分点至1%,但下修法国预测至仅成长0.4%。《彭博》经济研究则预期,ECB将于12月进行最后一次升息。

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OECD对2027年全球成长预测下修至3.0%,中东冲突推升能源与大宗商品价格,恐拖累动能。
全球通膨预测上调,G20明年为4.1%;OECD指Fed、ECB等可能再升息,BOE与BOC暂按兵不动。",
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      "shortTitle": "「川习会」要来了!央视:习近平启程访美",
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      "description": "中国国家主席习近平23日(周三)下午乘专机离开北京,应美国总统川普邀请,对美国进行国是访问。 据《央视》报导,陪同习近平出访的有:习近平主席夫人彭丽媛,中共中央政治局常委、中央办公厅主任蔡奇,中共中央政治局委员、外交部部长王毅等。   ",
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    {
      "id": 17159,
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      "shortTitle": "IMF总裁呼吁先进国家削减债务 应对高融资成本与AI新风险",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6613987/l/4ee62d24e484df1e804e9232559b65a5.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-23T09:10:02.000Z",
      "description": "国际货币基金(IMF)总裁乔治艾娃(Kristalina Georgieva)于纽约联合国大会期间接受英国广播公司(BBC)专访时警告,认为包含美国与英国在内的全球先进经济体,面临政府利息成本剧增,必须积极采取行动削减借贷并降低债务水准。 乔治艾娃形容,近年全球经济冲击正推升债务规模「宛如爬楼梯,但通往的不是天堂」,然而各国政府却未采取实质行动抑制利息偿付负担。她强调,政治人物需要展现「勇气」推进财政整顿,并确保央行履行物价稳定的职责。她指出,虽然许多外部经济因素超乎控制,但政府对国内政策仍具有",
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      "id": 17176,
      "title": "印尼央行维持基准利率5.75%不变 扩大避险诱因以稳定印尼盾",
      "shortTitle": "印尼央行维持基准利率5.75%不变 扩大避险诱因以稳定印尼盾",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614214/l/1a015d4eea7a40499da5aad8675d0713.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-23T11:00:03.000Z",
      "description": "印尼央行周三维持基准利率5.75%不变,连续第三次按兵不动,符合市场预期。
总裁Destry Damayanti称政策目标是稳定印尼盾、控制通膨并支撑成长,并调降外资避险成本吸引资金流入。
决议后印尼盾升值0.4%至17,800兑美元、股市涨1.5%;市场对后续利率路径看法分歧。",
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      "id": 17112,
      "title": "AI与机器人续主导!《财富》中国40岁以下商界菁英榜出炉:宇树王兴兴再入选 张雪、姚顺雨首入榜",
      "shortTitle": "AI与机器人续主导!《财富》中国40岁以下商界菁英榜出炉:宇",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-23T04:20:02.000Z",
      "description": "《财富》中文版周二(22日)发布2026年「中国40位40岁以下的商界精英」榜单,年度主题为「把技术叙事兑现为商业现实」,设置了主榜与「中国40岁以下最具潜力的商界精英」子榜,主榜共40位青年商业领袖入选,聚焦已完成商业化落地的新生代企业家群。 上述榜单已连16年发布,本届成员年龄横跨25岁至39岁,AI、人形机器人、新能源储能、先进制造、生物医药、消费与硬科技投资成为集中赛道。 人选集中来自于AI与机器人产业。36岁的宇树科技创办人王兴兴曾在2023年、2025年两度上榜,今年再度入选。 今年",
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      "title": "未成年子女也能网投!国泰人寿首创「全年龄多人投保」 一机搞定三代旅平险",
      "shortTitle": "未成年子女也能网投!国泰人寿首创「全年龄多人投保」 一机搞定",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6613861/l/661348b8f4671fdb32720a220102e482.jpg",
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      "shortTitle": "高市早苗与川普纽约会晤 川习会前夕巩固日美同盟",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-23T06:20:04.000Z",
      "description": "高市早苗在纽约与川普会谈约35分钟,会前强调盼在亚洲安全趋严下展现日美同盟坚韧。
双方谈及中国相关课题与经济安全,聚焦AI、半导体、关键矿物;日本称已同意紧密合作。
会谈亦讨论ICC与旧敌国条款,高市向川普重申支持ICC,并主张尽速删除联合国宪章条款。",
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      "id": 17132,
      "title": "川普支持禁止出口柴油对抗通膨 专家担忧恐反重伤全球能源市场",
      "shortTitle": "川普支持禁止出口柴油对抗通膨 专家担忧恐反重伤全球能源市场",
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      "description": "川普支持实施柴油出口禁令,盼压低国内能源价格。
美国柴油均价升至每加仑6.51美元,8月日出口量达160万桶,库存较5年同期低近13%。
API与分析师警告,禁令将冲击全球燃料市场、推升油价,并伤害欧洲等依赖美国柴油的盟友。",
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      "title": "巨亨买基金:AI撑盘台股获利年增逾5成 升息1码也压不住AI",
      "shortTitle": "巨亨买基金:AI撑盘台股获利年增逾5成 升息1码也压不住AI",
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      "description": "美国联准会(Fed)上周升息一码,终结为期两年的降息循环,这次升息虽未出乎市场意料,但会后偏鹰的政策讯号,仍让市场担心新一轮升息循环是否就此展开,进而压抑股市表现。「巨亨买基金」认为,目前通膨上行不全然源自需求过热,Fed是否持续升息仍有变数,相较于反复猜测利率方向,企业获利才是决定股市中长期走势的关键,在AI需求持续转化为订单与营收下,台股、美股及科技股基金仍具长线投资价值,台湾加权指数近一年每股盈余成长50.9%,未来一年预估仍达47.5%,显示AI需求已从市场题材转化为实际订单与获利,投资",
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      "title": "暴涨160%!川普喊千亿投资委内瑞拉  但面临运费、码头、债务、重油同时挡路",
      "shortTitle": "暴涨160%!川普喊千亿投资委内瑞拉  但面临运费、码头、债",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6613952/l/e12ef4e1e1cd881af63d80ed21bf2bfb.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:03.000Z",
      "description": "川普在纽约会见委国临时总统罗德里格斯,讨论能源开采、矿业与债务,并提出吸引1000亿美元资金进入委国石油业。
美委上月达成17个战略油田、25年框架协议,目标日产150万桶;但油轮运费飙升。
委国8月出口约日均117万桶,年底产能目标140万桶;外部总负债估1500亿至1700亿美元。",
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    "description": "欧元区9月综合PMI初值升至53.1,创2023年4月以来新高,企业活动扩张加速。
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