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"title": "上周升息还不够！Fed理事巴尔暗示至少再升两次",
"shortTitle": "上周升息还不够！Fed理事巴尔暗示至少再升两次",
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"description": "巴尔：美通膨风险升高、劳动市场风险减退，Fed上周升息后仍可能再调整政策。 Fed上周升1码至3.75%至4.00%，18官员中16人预估年底前至少还要再升息一次。 巴尔称关税、中东冲突、俄乌战争与AI投资推升物价，30年房贷利率升至7.12%。",
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"content": "<p>联准会(Fed)理事巴尔(Michael Barr)周三(23日)表示，美国通膨风险升高、劳动市场风险则已减退，Fed上周升息只是重新调整货币政策的重要一步，未来可能还需要进一步升息，才能让通膨及时回到2%目标。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614445/l/8744ec4bec753f6e216e608e8a8a63e9.jpg\" alt=\"上周升息还不够！Fed理事巴尔暗示至少再升两次\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>巴尔在芝加哥Fed住房负担能力会议的预备讲稿中指出，美国经济成长强劲、劳动市场依然稳健，但通膨仍高于Fed的2%目标，也未明确朝目标水准下降。他说，在其基本预测情境下，可能还需进一步调整政策，确保通膨及时降至目标。</p>\n\n<p>Fed上周全员一致决议升息1码，将政策利率调高至3.75%至4.00%；18名官员中有16人预估，今年底前至少还需升息一次。巴尔使用复数的「进一步政策调整」，暗示他可能认为至少还要升息两次，但并未说明时间表。</p>\n\n<p>巴尔表示，Fed先前的政策立场已不再符合经济情势，上周升息是朝正确方向修正。他认为，物价稳定是实现充分就业及支持经济持续、稳健成长的关键。这番明确表态，也与Fed主席华许(Kevin Warsh)拒绝提供未来利率路径指引形成对比。</p>\n\n<p>巴尔指出，过去一年半来，美国经济接连遭遇关税、中东冲突、俄乌战争造成的供应中断，以及AI基础建设投资激增等冲击，持续带来物价上涨压力。根据芝商所(CME)FedWatch工具，市场预估Fed在10月会议升息的机率约为55%，远高于一个月前的9%。</p>\n\n<p>巴尔演说大部分内容聚焦住房负担能力。他表示，房屋供应不足及房贷利率居高不下，使购屋压力进一步恶化。美国30年期固定房贷平均利率上周升至7.12%，创逾两年新高。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17193.html\" title=\"〈美股早盘〉油价与美债殖利率攀升 主要指数开低\">〈美股早盘〉油价与美债殖利率攀升 主要指数开低</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17176.html\" title=\"印尼央行维持基准利率5.75%不变 扩大避险诱因以稳定印尼盾\">印尼央行维持基准利率5.75%不变 扩大避险诱因以稳定印尼盾</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17144.html\" title=\"巨亨双周报》升息未歇，中东牵动全球通膨\">巨亨双周报》升息未歇，中东牵动全球通膨</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17159.html\" title=\"IMF总裁呼吁先进国家削减债务 应对高融资成本与AI新风险\">IMF总裁呼吁先进国家削减债务 应对高融资成本与AI新风险</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17143.html\" title=\"〈陆股盘后〉午后两市低档窄幅震荡 三大指数走低\">〈陆股盘后〉午后两市低档窄幅震荡 三大指数走低</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17184.html\" title=\"关税战打了八年！美国真的赢了吗？中国零组件换条路照样进美国\">关税战打了八年！美国真的赢了吗？中国零组件换条路照样进美国</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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