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日元逼近160大关!日本再干预预期升温、美元强势成阻力

2026-09-26 14:30:09 网络 阅读(1)

日元贬值压力持续升高。即使美元兑日元汇率已突破日本先前进行汇率检查时的水准,日元仍未止跌,9月24日一度升破159日元,随着具有心理意义的160日元关口再次逼近,市场开始出现日本当局可能再次干预汇市的预期。

日元逼近160大关!日本再干预预期升温、美元强势成阻力

根据《日经》报导,外汇市场近日出现美元全面走强的情况,周四(24日)美元兑日元一度突破159日元。截至周六(26日),涨势稍微回落,美元兑日元至157.30日元。

市场预期美国联准会(Fed)最快可能在10月再次升息,加上美国长期利率走高,进一步推升美元买盘。

美东时间24日上午11时30分左右,美元兑日元约3周来首次升至159日元区间,此前一次触及该水准是在9月2日。

日本央行在日本大型连假前曾向市场参与者询问汇率水准,也就是所谓的「汇率检查」,但即使汇率已突破当时约158日元前半的水准,日元贬值、美元升值的趋势仍未扭转。

Bannockburn Capital Markets策略师Mark Chandler表示,美国利率上升正推动美元走强。美国10年期国债殖利率24日一度升至约5.22%,创2007年6月以来最高水准。

在美国经济数据表现稳健,以及油价上涨引发通膨可能持续更长时间的疑虑下,市场对联准会10月再次升息的预期升温。

根据FedWatch依美国利率期货走势计算的市场政策利率预期,截至美东时间24日下午,市场预估10月升息机率已升至约70%。

美元兑其他主要货币同样走强。衡量美元相对主要货币强弱的美元指数升破101点,创7月底以来新高;欧元兑美元则一度跌至约1.1360美元,为7月下旬以来约2个月低点。

随着美元兑日元再次逼近160日元,英国金融经纪商Trade Nation分析师David Morrison表示,7月底美日联合干预对推升日元汇率所带来的效果,已有相当一部分逐渐消退。他认为,不论美国是否参与,日元都再次接近可能迫使当局出手干预的水准。

不过,也有观点认为,若由日本政府与日本央行单独干预汇市,效果可能有限。主要原因在于,目前并非只有日元遭到投机资金集中抛售,而是美元走强本身具有较强的基本面支撑,其中包括市场对联准会升息的预期。

三井住友日兴证券资深利率及外汇策略师丸山凛途指出,若没有美国参与联合干预,或市场对联准会升息的预期未明显降温,仅靠日本自身干预,恐难改变市场中期汇率判断,使汇率转向日元升值方向。

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      "title": "川习会「雷声大雨点小」?《彭博》:台湾、AI、关税问题仍悬而未决",
      "shortTitle": "川习会「雷声大雨点小」?《彭博》:台湾、AI、关税问题仍悬而",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6615840/l/d877138963333a9385a4f3b1111942bd.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-25T08:00:05.000Z",
      "description": "美中同意将贸易休兵再延长2个月,原先外界期待的降关税与AI新沟通管道未公布。
川普宴请习近平并称「从未如此融洽」,但也展示白宫工程、拿拜登开玩笑,峰会焦点偏向个人议题。
习近平提议AI维持在人类控制之下,并盼美国公平对待中企;双方在AI、贸易、台湾等议题仍有分歧。",
      "pv": 4,
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    },
    {
      "id": 17439,
      "title": "《CNN》中国卫星情报助伊朗提升精准打击能力!美情报:荷姆兹海峡船舶面临更大威胁",
      "shortTitle": "《CNN》中国卫星情报助伊朗提升精准打击能力!美情报:荷姆兹",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6615820/l/1d725068353fb94457d9cacef80258d3.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-25T09:20:02.000Z",
      "description": "中国卫星影像与地理空间情报,近月协助伊朗提升锁定能力,精准攻击中东美军基地与荷姆兹海峡船舶。
美方称7月伊朗袭击约旦美军基地致3死,若无相关情报支援,打击精准度不会超出原有能力。
美国已制裁3家中国卫星公司并限制中东影像供应,忧其增加美军风险,伊朗战术也持续调整。",
      "pv": 4,
      "pinyin": "hour",
      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 17440,
      "title": "白宫公布国宴菜单 特别致敬1972年「和平祝酒」",
      "shortTitle": "白宫公布国宴菜单 特别致敬1972年「和平祝酒」",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6615892/l/af38dafbf4c8d1c0c2692c2f2a3f811b.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-25T09:04:20.000Z",
      "description": "习近平和彭丽媛出席川普与梅兰妮亚举行的欢迎宴会。
国宴由梅兰妮亚筹备,于东厅举行,邀美中代表团、官员与商界领袖出席。
菜单以美国食材为主融入中国元素,餐前以Schramsberg气泡酒致意1972年尼克森访华「和平祝酒」。",
      "pv": 4,
      "pinyin": "hour",
      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 17444,
      "title": "OpenAI传将推500美元ChatGPT「Pro Max」方案!主打最快Work与Codex、或接Cerebras算力",
      "shortTitle": "OpenAI传将推500美元ChatGPT「Pro Max」",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6615814/l/e72508335856b2501e73b538540ff482.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-25T11:10:03.000Z",
      "description": "OpenAI传或推出月费500美元高阶ChatGPT订阅「Pro Max」。
Pro Max或采Cerebras基础设施,新增「Fastest Work and Codex」并提高使用额度。
OpenAI定价页尚未见Pro Max;相关资讯可能于9月29日DevDay 2026揭晓,但仅属推测。",
      "pv": 4,
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      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
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    {
      "id": 17445,
      "title": "荷兰首相游说美国 别再限制ASML对中国出口",
      "shortTitle": "荷兰首相游说美国 别再限制ASML对中国出口",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6615891/l/2770c18b6ec3c60e871eec9c6859d88f.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-25T10:58:15.000Z",
      "description": "荷兰首相耶滕直接向川普交涉,盼阻止美国进一步收紧对ASML的出口限制。
耶滕已多次与川普及美国国会议员讨论《MATCH法案》,强调需平衡保护半导体技术与荷兰产业利益。
今年Q2中国占ASML系统销售净额14%。",
      "pv": 4,
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      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 17448,
      "title": "法国拟召集G7商讨释出战略石油储备",
      "shortTitle": "法国拟召集G7商讨释出战略石油储备",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6615684/l/5fb38108f9052bc64c2e41d7ba8c883a.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-25T11:35:06.000Z",
      "description": "法国总统马克宏24日(周四)晚接受两家法国电视台联合采访时说,法国拟召集七国集团(G7)成员国开会商讨释出战略石油储备,以稳定国际油价。 近期美国和欧洲多国柴油价格均创下新高。马克宏说,G7成员国可研究如何通过相互协调方式向市场释放战略石油储备,从而降低油价。 马克宏说,伊朗局势是全球油价飙升的主要原因,法国将致力于推动中东恢复稳定。 此外,乌克兰战争对油价也有影响,法国就此呼吁双方停止攻打彼此能源目标。    ",
      "pv": 4,
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      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 17451,
      "title": "〈美股早盘〉油价回落促使债券抛售暂歇  主要指数小幅走高",
      "shortTitle": "〈美股早盘〉油价回落促使债券抛售暂歇  主要指数小幅走高",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6615875/l/e14bc1a414aa5a72c578c082a7b358c1.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-25T13:49:11.000Z",
      "description": "美股主要指数小涨,标普、那指、道琼、费半齐扬,台积电ADR涨0.37%。
美中同意贸易休战延长两个月;Akamai与Anthropic达多年合作,股价大涨。
油价回落、美10年债殖利率5.19%;市场关注联准会升息与房贷利率走高。",
      "pv": 3,
      "pinyin": "hour",
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      "path": "/hour"
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    {
      "id": 17452,
      "title": "美中贸易谈判新进展!格里尔:部分商品已达成协议、下周一公布更多细节",
      "shortTitle": "美中贸易谈判新进展!格里尔:部分商品已达成协议、下周一公布更",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6616048/l/eb5dab46f77689db9b00f6c1c4b8ab1c.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-25T14:40:03.000Z",
      "description": "美国与中国就部分可贸易商品达成协议,将享有更优惠条件。
格里尔称涵盖美国农产品、医疗器材及不具敏感性的中国消费品,细节下周一公布。
新美中「贸易委员会」聚焦纯贸易议题,国家安全出口管制不纳入谈判。",
      "pv": 3,
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      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 17455,
      "title": "大摩银行家大出包寄出「内部交易清单」!曝光约60宗亚洲IPO、并购案、大宗交易",
      "shortTitle": "大摩银行家大出包寄出「内部交易清单」!曝光约60宗亚洲IPO",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6615887/l/753b49ef6921290b6009207c1fd767b3.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-25T15:40:07.000Z",
      "description": "摩根士丹利资深银行家误将内部交易清单附在客户周报,导致约60笔亚洲IPO、M&A与大宗交易外泄。
清单含逾50笔「提案阶段」与近30笔「搁置状态」交易,竞争银行据称趁机锁定案源、争取客户。
摩根士丹利称已迅速处理并加强通报与合规训练;外泄恐压抑股价、增加交易执行难度。",
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      "id": 17460,
      "title": "〈能源盘后〉美伊探索停战路径 油价回落逾2%  Brent站回104美元",
      "shortTitle": "〈能源盘后〉美伊探索停战路径 油价回落逾2%  Brent站",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6616209/l/395aef4d81d514084c6d252c763bbe8b.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-25T21:20:04.000Z",
      "description": "美伊在纽约探索分阶段结束战事, 市场押注荷姆兹海峡恢复通航, 带动油价回落。
Brent跌2.1%至104.32美元, WTI跌2.3%至92.41美元; 美拟禁柴油出口也压抑原油需求。
胡塞持续攻击沙乌地, 6枚弹道飞弹遭拦截, 中东供应风险仍未消退。",
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    "title": "日元逼近160大关!日本再干预预期升温、美元强势成阻力",
    "shortTitle": "日元逼近160大关!日本再干预预期升温、美元强势成阻力",
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    "description": "美元兑日元24日一度突破159日元、逼近160关口,市场开始预期日本当局可能再次干预汇市。
Fed最快10月再升息预期升温,10年期美债殖利率升至约5.22%,带动美元全面走强。
若无美国参与联合干预,市场认为日本单独干预效果有限,恐难扭转日元贬值趋势。",
    "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6616371/l/68229e3d5077db5d030b33196117ec10.jpg",
    "content": "<p>日元贬值压力持续升高。即使美元兑日元汇率已突破日本先前进行汇率检查时的水准,日元仍未止跌,9月24日一度升破159日元,随着具有心理意义的160日元关口再次逼近,市场开始出现日本当局可能再次干预汇市的预期。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6616371/l/68229e3d5077db5d030b33196117ec10.jpg\" alt=\"日元逼近160大关!日本再干预预期升温、美元强势成阻力\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>根据《日经》报导,外汇市场近日出现美元全面走强的情况,周四(24日)美元兑日元一度突破159日元。截至周六(26日),涨势稍微回落,美元兑日元至157.30日元。</p>\n\n<p>市场预期美国联准会(Fed)最快可能在10月再次升息,加上美国长期利率走高,进一步推升美元买盘。</p>\n\n<p>美东时间24日上午11时30分左右,美元兑日元约3周来首次升至159日元区间,此前一次触及该水准是在9月2日。</p>\n\n<p>日本央行在日本大型连假前曾向市场参与者询问汇率水准,也就是所谓的「汇率检查」,但即使汇率已突破当时约158日元前半的水准,日元贬值、美元升值的趋势仍未扭转。</p>\n\n<p>Bannockburn Capital Markets策略师Mark Chandler表示,美国利率上升正推动美元走强。美国10年期国债殖利率24日一度升至约5.22%,创2007年6月以来最高水准。</p>\n\n<p>在美国经济数据表现稳健,以及油价上涨引发通膨可能持续更长时间的疑虑下,市场对联准会10月再次升息的预期升温。</p>\n\n<p>根据FedWatch依美国利率期货走势计算的市场政策利率预期,截至美东时间24日下午,市场预估10月升息机率已升至约70%。</p>\n\n<p>美元兑其他主要货币同样走强。衡量美元相对主要货币强弱的美元指数升破101点,创7月底以来新高;欧元兑美元则一度跌至约1.1360美元,为7月下旬以来约2个月低点。</p>\n\n<p>随着美元兑日元再次逼近160日元,英国金融经纪商Trade Nation分析师David Morrison表示,7月底美日联合干预对推升日元汇率所带来的效果,已有相当一部分逐渐消退。他认为,不论美国是否参与,日元都再次接近可能迫使当局出手干预的水准。</p>\n\n<p>不过,也有观点认为,若由日本政府与日本央行单独干预汇市,效果可能有限。主要原因在于,目前并非只有日元遭到投机资金集中抛售,而是美元走强本身具有较强的基本面支撑,其中包括市场对联准会升息的预期。</p>\n\n<p>三井住友日兴证券资深利率及外汇策略师丸山凛途指出,若没有美国参与联合干预,或市场对联准会升息的预期未明显降温,仅靠日本自身干预,恐难改变市场中期汇率判断,使汇率转向日元升值方向。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17475.html\" title=\"「AI会害死我们吗?」祖克柏给出答案 对未来「相当乐观」\">「AI会害死我们吗?」祖克柏给出答案 对未来「相当乐观」</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17448.html\" title=\"法国拟召集G7商讨释出战略石油储备\">法国拟召集G7商讨释出战略石油储备</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17457.html\" title=\"川普:与习近平会晤富有成效 将有重大事情发生\">川普:与习近平会晤富有成效 将有重大事情发生</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17468.html\" title=\"〈贵金属盘后〉Fed官员联手放鹰、美债殖利率挺升 金价周线收黑\">〈贵金属盘后〉Fed官员联手放鹰、美债殖利率挺升 金价周线收黑</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17445.html\" title=\"荷兰首相游说美国 别再限制ASML对中国出口\">荷兰首相游说美国 别再限制ASML对中国出口</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17478.html\" title=\"WSJ:川普拒绝伊朗7天停火提案 预计期中选举后恢复轰炸\">WSJ:川普拒绝伊朗7天停火提案 预计期中选举后恢复轰炸</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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