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AMRO警告:亚洲主要经济体高度暴露于AI泡沫风险

2026-10-05 16:17:46 网络 阅读(1)

最新经济研究指出,亚洲主要经济体若遭遇潜在的人工智慧(AI)产业泡沫破裂,受创程度将高于全球多数地区,不仅可能打击近期强劲的出口力道,更恐对金融市场造成连锁冲击。

AMRO警告:亚洲主要经济体高度暴露于AI泡沫风险

东协与中日韩总体经济研究办公室(AMRO)于报告中警告,东亚与东南亚区域处于全球供应链核心,且「日益融入AI相关金融市场」,一旦发生无序修正,风险将透过贸易、资本流动与融资成本等多重管道迅速传播。

随着全球建置AI的热潮,制造资料中心所需晶片与高科技产品的亚洲经济体出口额创下新高。然而,投资人对科技公司高估值以及企业间相互资助的循环交易模式,逐渐产生永续性的疑虑。AMRO数据显示,东协加三区域贡献了全球AI相关贸易成长的三分之二。

AMRO估算,若AI需求放缓,可能导致本区域2027年经济成长率削减高达1.5个百分点(原预估值为4.1%),使其成为当前最大的经济风险因子,冲击幅度远高于荷姆兹海峡航运中断(估约0.6个百分点)与圣婴现象等风险。

在金融资产方面,南韩等股票市场高度集中于AI相关产业,容易面临大幅重估价格的风险;日本与香港股市则与美国AI及科技股密切连动,即使缺乏本土触发因素也可能受到波及。AMRO指出:「AI相关金融资产若出现剧烈修正,可能透过强制去杠杆化与紧缩信贷条件,溢出至更广泛的金融体系。」

面对潜在波动,AMRO正监测企业估值、杠杆率、资金来源及底层需求等各项指标。AMRO首席经济学家Runchana Pongsaparn于简报中表示:「目前虽已出现部分警讯,但我们认为情况尚未达到严重的程度。」

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阿拉格齐称若德黑兰方案获接受,7天内可恢复正常航运;并警告美方若再大规模军事行动,伊朗将自卫。
UKMTO通报荷姆兹海峡油轮遭不明发射物击中,市场忧区域风险升高,油价与海运保费恐维持高档。",
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    {
      "id": 18518,
      "title": "AI时代的「新石油」?晶片与资料中心双轮驱动  这一晶片材料年涨逾300%",
      "shortTitle": "AI时代的「新石油」?晶片与资料中心双轮驱动  这一晶片材料",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620192/l/a3b1d3b816c8331907d996273b682fe8.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-04T23:50:02.000Z",
      "description": "钌价自今年初约560美元飙至9月近1950美元,涨幅逾300%,受AI资料中心与2奈米以下制程带动。
钌在17奈米以下金属互连具优势,免复杂阻挡层、热稳定性佳,正从HDD材料转向先进晶片互连。
2025年原生供应约30吨、年减14%,需求119.3万盎司高于供给97.7万盎司,市场出现缺口。",
      "pv": 3,
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      "path": "/hour"
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    {
      "id": 18552,
      "title": "韩金融业炸锅!多家主要银行系统遭骇 客户资料大规模外泄",
      "shortTitle": "韩金融业炸锅!多家主要银行系统遭骇 客户资料大规模外泄",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621542/l/e856824112cebe4c9fe4b88b870875e7.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-05T02:52:22.000Z",
      "description": "韩多家银行近日连遭外部攻击,耶加兰储蓄银行、新韩、KB国民、韩亚、友利、NH农协及BNK釜山银行受波及。
耶加兰储蓄银行约4万人资料外泄最多,新韩约2.5万人,国民119人、韩亚89人,BNK外包开发人员资讯被窃。
初判外部软体漏洞为突破口,AI驱动攻击与外包、次核心系统防护不足成南韩金融业隐忧。",
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      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 18553,
      "title": "美国担忧恐攻 部署在英国B-1轰炸机全部撤回",
      "shortTitle": "美国担忧恐攻 部署在英国B-1轰炸机全部撤回",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621389/l/a858cff3c4b2da2d14c8a892752c0cbb.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-05T02:18:36.000Z",
      "description": "美国国防部一名官员表示,美国已将部署在英国皇家空军费尔福德基地的B-1轰炸机全部撤回美国。 五角大厦一名发言人在邮件中写道,「出于行动安全考量,我们无法实时证实装备与部队调动情况,但如今可以确认,所有部署于费尔福德皇家空军基地的美军轰炸机,均已重新调回美基地」。 费尔福德基地是美国空军在欧洲展开行动的指挥前哨,也是美军前沿作战基地。 近几个月英国同意美方使用该基地实施其所称针对伊朗的防御性打击后,美军轰炸机从这座基地起飞前往中东执行任务。美国B-1和B-52轰炸机就曾从该基地起飞执行针对伊朗的作",
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    {
      "id": 18529,
      "title": "杜拜航空副驾驶 原计划驾机撞以色列机场航厦",
      "shortTitle": "杜拜航空副驾驶 原计划驾机撞以色列机场航厦",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621387/l/269b13abff45ee3f0ce9a4f5d4f09b82.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-05T00:45:00.000Z",
      "description": "杜拜航空公司客机驾驶舱冲突事件中阿曼籍副驾驶哈马姆·哈马米接受审讯时称,他原本计划驾机撞向以色列特拉维夫本-古里安机场航厦。 据以色列第12频道4日报导,哈马米选择在客机飞至约旦上空时袭击机长,原计划让飞机正常飞行至快要抵达本-古里安机场、以军机来不及实施拦截时,驾机撞向机场航厦。 受伤机长不惜一切代价打开驾驶舱门,挫败了哈马米的企图。 据《耶路撒冷邮报》报导,一名以色列消息人士透露,哈马米在审讯中表示,他在被杜拜航空录用前就已策划袭击。他曾研究哪些航空公司有飞往特拉维夫的航线,并",
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    {
      "id": 18567,
      "title": "G7释出紧急储备后 川普宣布不禁柴油出口",
      "shortTitle": "G7释出紧急储备后 川普宣布不禁柴油出口",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621412/l/13420a926f5d16fca8489e3eb1d29d0e.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-05T05:15:10.000Z",
      "description": "川普表示不会禁止美国柴油出口,放弃先前考虑的出口限制。
G7及伙伴同意释出最多1亿桶紧急石油与柴油储备,IEA协调、未来4个月陆续释出。
柴油均价升至每加仑6.37美元,供应与价格压力已冲击物流、农村供暖与11月期中选举。",
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      "id": 18568,
      "title": "美伊进入「关键一周」!是战是谈?美银分析油价103美元面临4大情境",
      "shortTitle": "美伊进入「关键一周」!是战是谈?美银分析油价103美元面临4",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621573/l/0495c0616d136ba947c29529d48f201f.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-05T04:31:17.000Z",
      "description": "美伊谈判陷僵局,川普强硬放话,伊朗称愿谈判但若遭军事攻击将「更具毁灭性」反击。
美军增兵中东,西奥多·罗斯福号与马金岛号预计10月底前抵达,届时美国在伊朗附近将形成3个航母打击群。
油价高档震荡,布兰特约103美元;美银指供应紧张缓解但风险溢价未消,油轮遭袭与荷姆兹海峡局势牵动后市。",
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    {
      "id": 18569,
      "title": "非农爆冷也救不了!美元、美债殖利率持续施压金价  4000美元大关保卫战本周开始?",
      "shortTitle": "非农爆冷也救不了!美元、美债殖利率持续施压金价  4000美",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621587/l/38561c1a92223c2a79ede2c5337609e4.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-05T04:30:06.000Z",
      "description": "现货黄金今早约4144.52美元震荡;上周五收4139.28美元,周跌约3.4%
美国9月非农仅增29000人、薪资增3%,但美元反弹与美债殖利率高企压抑金价
印尼拟征黄金出口税7.5%至15%,南韩、亚洲大国及新港扩大黄金供应链布局",
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    {
      "id": 18580,
      "title": "俄乌冲突升温冲击黑海出口 小麦连涨 全球食品价格恐攀升逾9%",
      "shortTitle": "俄乌冲突升温冲击黑海出口 小麦连涨 全球食品价格恐攀升逾9%",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621650/l/571cb1f0413e583619ed4ad19a5706a4.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-05T06:00:12.000Z",
      "description": "俄罗斯威胁升级乌克兰战事,黑海供应中断疑虑升高,芝加哥小麦期货连3日走扬、周一一度涨1%。
俄国称将加强打击乌克兰基础设施;7、8月初俄军对港口超过70次打击、袭船62次,乌克兰8月前两周出口年减75%。
CRM指土耳其斡旋若进展可消除风险溢价,但恐需数月,世银食品价格指数2026年估涨9.3%。",
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    {
      "id": 18581,
      "title": "机器人热潮拉警报!同业互杠、宇树腰斩 小摩喊再跌33%",
      "shortTitle": "机器人热潮拉警报!同业互杠、宇树腰斩 小摩喊再跌33%",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621436/l/8daa551c409ad1f06b0d1b554c979ffa.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-05T06:00:12.000Z",
      "description": "宇树科技上市后股价腰斩,摩根大通首评「减码」、目标价300元,估值对应2027年股价营收比46倍。
邵天兰指控部分具身智慧业者透过「资料采集中心」做关系人交易,制造虚假且不可持续营收。
欢创科技首日暴涨266%后次日重挫48%,港股机器人新股筹码与高估值风险受关注。",
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南韩股市AI权重高,日本与香港又与美国AI股连动;AMRO称目前有警讯,但尚未达严重程度。",
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