天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-俄乌冲突升温冲击黑海出口小麦连涨全球食品价格恐攀升逾9%

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俄乌冲突升温冲击黑海出口小麦连涨全球食品价格恐攀升逾9%

2026-10-05 14:17:46 网络阅读（1）
受俄罗斯威胁升级乌克兰战事影响，全球重要谷物运输走廊黑海的供应中断疑虑再度加剧。芝加哥小麦期货价格连续3个交易日走扬，周一一度上扬 1%，创下一个月以来最长连涨纪录。
俄乌冲突升温冲击黑海出口小麦连涨全球食品价格恐攀升逾9%
俄罗斯国防部周日宣布，将加强打击乌克兰基础设施，使自今年 7 月以来即陷入限制的黑海小麦供应前景更趋严峻。
根据乌克兰港口当局统计，俄军在 7 月与 8 月初对港口发动超过 70 次打击，并袭击船只 62 次，致使乌克兰 8 月前两周出口量较去年同期大幅暴跌 75%。
基辅当局警告，这些攻击直接威胁到高达 400 亿美元的关键出口收入(约占其国内生产毛额 GDP 的 1.5%)，并将使全球数以亿计依赖乌克兰谷物的民众面临无粮可用的困境。
针对黑海航运受阻与全球价格走势，CRM AgriCommodities 在报告中分析指出，土耳其的斡旋最终可能恢复航运，但达成协议恐需数月时间；若取得进展将能消除风险溢价，而持续的中断则会为价格提供支撑。
牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)助理产业经济学家Pablo Meijer 指出，预计世界银行食品价格指数在 2026 年将上涨约 9.3%，2027 年则放缓至约 4.4%。Meijer 表示：「随着奥德萨港关闭，乌克兰出口大幅下降，全球小麦贸易量下降了约 7%。」
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