天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-高盛警告：多重市场事件罕见交会三星电子短期股价波动恐加剧

高盛警告：多重市场事件罕见交会三星电子短期股价波动恐加剧

2026-10-06 21:39:56 网络阅读（1）
高盛分析师 Heather Oh 在最新发布的客户报告发出称，周四(8日)将出现多个市场事件同时发生的罕见局面，并使得南韩科技巨头三星电子股价承受异常剧烈的波动压力。
高盛警告：多重市场事件罕见交会三星电子短期股价波动恐加剧
Oh 在报告中特别指出：「第三季初步财报 + 半导体 ETF 权重调整带来的潜在机械性卖压 + 选择权到期 + 库藏股回购计划结束的组合，可能会引发三星电子近期的波动加剧，特别是在 10 月 8 日当天。」
这波卖压主要源于资金面的结构性调整。高盛指出，合计资产管理规模约 19 兆韩元(约 140 亿美元)的 7 档半导体 ETF 定于 10 月 8 日进行权重调整。
受到持股上限限制，三星预计将面临资金净流出；相对地，SK 海力士、SK Square 以及 Isu Petasys、Wonik IPS、Hanmi Semi 等设备厂，则将接收相应的资金流入，形成相对应的机械性买盘。此外，三星规模 15 兆韩元的库藏股回购计划即将完结，意味着市场失去了每日稳定的买盘支撑。
外资在事件发生前已连续 5 个交易日净卖超三星，累计卖超金额达 26 亿美元，且避险基金也维持偏卖方的操作倾向。
在基本面与业绩预估方面，高盛将三星 2026 年第三季营业利润预估下修 5% 至 106 兆韩元(与市场共识的 105.5 兆韩元基本相符)，调降的主因在于韩元走强。
尽管下修获利目标，高盛对三星的营运基本面仍持正面看法。Oh 引述高盛全球投资研究部(GIR)的观点指出：「高盛研究部认为，100 兆韩元以上的营业利润受到坚实的 DRAM 与 NAND 基本面支撑，其中 HBM 的成长表现最为亮眼。」
受惠于 HBM4 量产升温，预估第三季 HBM 位元出货量将季增近 50%；相对地，传统 DRAM 由于新增产能优先分配给 HBM 且库存有限，位元成长表现则大致持平。
针对短期市场波动过后的情势，Oh 总结称：「外资是否重新流入，以及公司能否保持强劲的获利动能与展望指引，将是未来的关键观察点。」
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      "shortTitle": "来自美国贸易压力驱动 中国、越南深化铁路与空陆物流整合",
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      "description": "中越面对美国关税与贸易不确定性，正把边境贸易升级为制造、物流、观光供应链廊道&#10;两国推进三大铁路计划，越南8月追加33.6亿美元建老街－河内－海防标准轨，2030年前对接&#10;空运、水运同步扩张；今年中越航线机位创8,600万，中国航空与物流业看好越南市场",
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      "description": "Anthropic 联合创办人兼总裁 Daniela Amodei 身价估 155 亿美元，居全美白手起家女性富豪第 2。&#10;Anthropic 估值升至 9,650 亿美元，阿莫迪身价一年内成长近 13 倍。&#10;Anthropic 拟 11 月 IPO，市场传上市估值可能逾 2 兆美元。",
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      "description": "Strategy 第三季录得约209.1亿美元数位资产未实现收益，终结连4季亏损并重返获利&#10;截至9月底数位资产帐面价值达708.2亿美元；6月提列的41.2亿美元递延所得税资产备抵获准释放&#10;10月1日至4日再买334枚比特币、持币达848,000枚；近一周并买回约1.76亿美元STRC特别股",
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      "createdAt": "2026-10-06T06:42:51.000Z",
      "description": "奥特曼称愿与马斯克在AI安全合作，坦言共事需接受冲突、必要时反击霸凌者。&#10;两人长期公开决裂并牵涉多起法律纠纷，马斯克曾称奥特曼为「骗子奥特曼」。&#10;OpenAI、Anthropic、SpaceXAI、Google、辉达7月签白宫支持的AI安全自愿协议，业界扩大合作。",
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      "description": "中东地缘政治情势不稳、美国公债殖利率攀升，加上外资自部分新兴市场撤出，但新兴股市表现依然展现韧性。富兰克林坦伯顿新兴市场月收益基金经理人伽坦&middot;赛加尔（Gautam Sehgal）分析，过去新兴市场常在年初对企业获利给予乐观展望，随后却屡遭下修，但2026年企业每股盈余（EPS）预估修正周期为过去十多年来最强劲的一次，市场共识预期持续获得上调，有利支撑股价表现。 伽坦&middot;赛加尔指出，回顾2001至2010年新兴股市多头期间，主要驱动力来自EPS成长优于成熟市场；然而在20",
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      "shortTitle": "美中半导体设备攻防长期化！美智库称中国囤343台DUV、日媒",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622514/l/3222d89a42cc34b575d935673839a9c1.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-06T08:00:09.000Z",
      "description": "外媒称中国在美荷管制下仍透过个案审批、库存与国产研发推进光刻能力。&#10;CTS估中国取得343台浸没式DUV，2024年采购逾130亿美元、2025年再增购89台。&#10;报告指若2027年起切断新机进口，AI晶片与7奈米等产能将受抑，但国产整机试制与存量机台仍可维持基本盘。",
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    "title": "高盛警告：多重市场事件罕见交会 三星电子短期股价波动恐加剧",
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    "content": "<p>高盛分析师 Heather Oh 在最新发布的客户报告发出称，周四(8日)将出现多个市场事件同时发生的罕见局面，并使得南韩科技巨头三星电子股价承受异常剧烈的波动压力。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622892/l/cced7b2020cdff7799af6a608aaea3b8.jpg\" alt=\"高盛警告：多重市场事件罕见交会 三星电子短期股价波动恐加剧\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>Oh 在报告中特别指出：「第三季初步财报 + 半导体 ETF 权重调整带来的潜在机械性卖压 + 选择权到期 + 库藏股回购计划结束的组合，可能会引发三星电子近期的波动加剧，特别是在 10 月 8 日当天。」</p>\n\n<p>这波卖压主要源于资金面的结构性调整。高盛指出，合计资产管理规模约 19 兆韩元(约 140 亿美元)的 7 档半导体 ETF 定于 10 月 8 日进行权重调整。</p>\n\n<p>受到持股上限限制，三星预计将面临资金净流出；相对地，SK 海力士、SK Square 以及 Isu Petasys、Wonik IPS、Hanmi Semi 等设备厂，则将接收相应的资金流入，形成相对应的机械性买盘。此外，三星规模 15 兆韩元的库藏股回购计划即将完结，意味着市场失去了每日稳定的买盘支撑。</p>\n\n<p>外资在事件发生前已连续 5 个交易日净卖超三星，累计卖超金额达 26 亿美元，且避险基金也维持偏卖方的操作倾向。</p>\n\n<p>在基本面与业绩预估方面，高盛将三星 2026 年第三季营业利润预估下修 5% 至 106 兆韩元(与市场共识的 105.5 兆韩元基本相符)，调降的主因在于韩元走强。</p>\n\n<p>尽管下修获利目标，高盛对三星的营运基本面仍持正面看法。Oh 引述高盛全球投资研究部(GIR)的观点指出：「高盛研究部认为，100 兆韩元以上的营业利润受到坚实的 DRAM 与 NAND 基本面支撑，其中 HBM 的成长表现最为亮眼。」</p>\n\n<p>受惠于 HBM4 量产升温，预估第三季 HBM 位元出货量将季增近 50%；相对地，传统 DRAM 由于新增产能优先分配给 HBM 且库存有限，位元成长表现则大致持平。</p>\n\n<p>针对短期市场波动过后的情势，Oh 总结称：「外资是否重新流入，以及公司能否保持强劲的获利动能与展望指引，将是未来的关键观察点。」</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18864.html\" title=\"美国期中选举历史规律：历年选后美股强劲上涨\">美国期中选举历史规律：历年选后美股强劲上涨</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18928.html\" title=\"贝森特喊话让卖压暂缓 美债殖利率自高点拉回但市场疑虑未消\">贝森特喊话让卖压暂缓 美债殖利率自高点拉回但市场疑虑未消</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18822.html\" title=\"缅北电诈主犯随机取人命「祭天」 魏家暴行内幕曝光\">缅北电诈主犯随机取人命「祭天」 魏家暴行内幕曝光</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18842.html\" title=\"告别10年低迷！新兴市场获利可望刷十多年新高 法人看好股债迎双利多\">告别10年低迷！新兴市场获利可望刷十多年新高 法人看好股债迎双利多</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18833.html\" title=\"OpenAI奥特曼批马斯克是「霸凌者」：他只尊重敢反击的人\">OpenAI奥特曼批马斯克是「霸凌者」：他只尊重敢反击的人</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18832.html\" title=\"受惠比特币价格反弹 Strategy第三季大赚209亿美元 终结连四季亏损\">受惠比特币价格反弹 Strategy第三季大赚209亿美元 终结连四季亏损</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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