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防范长期剧烈贬值 土耳其央行拟微调汇率政策加快里拉贬值步调

2026-10-14 18:51:59 网络 阅读(1)

据知情人士透露,土耳其中央银行总裁卡拉汉(Fatih Karahan)于曼谷出席国际货币基金(IMF)与世界银行年会的闭门会议时向投资人透露,土耳其目前正允许里拉以更快的速度贬值,以防止未来长期出现更剧烈的汇率疲软。

防范长期剧烈贬值 土耳其央行拟微调汇率政策加快里拉贬值步调

对于上述闭门会议的讨论内容,土耳其央行拒绝发表评论。

据《彭博》报导,卡拉汉向投资人解释,由于当前经济活动有所放缓,汇率贬值对通膨的「传递效应」已有所减弱,这也是央行选择在此时调整汇率贬值节奏的主因。

他强调维持可持续汇率架构的重要性,并指出其总裁任期将于 2028 年 2 月届满,希望能借此建立稳定机制,防止继任者未来感到有必要进行大幅度贬值,从而抹去迄今所取得的所有政策进展。

此外,卡拉汉补充说,微调贬值步调时必须确保国内储户与家庭能继续认为持有里拉资产的报酬率具备吸引力。

土耳其央行长期以来将里拉的稳健放缓作为其「反通膨策略」的一环,采取实质货币升值的控管模式,即确保里拉每月的贬值幅度低于每月的通膨率。这种高度可预测的汇率走势配合高利率政策,成功带动了数十亿美元的外资透过「利差交易」流入土耳其。

目前土耳其基准一周附买回利率(repo rate)高达 37%。随着今年 9 月年通膨率近五年来首次降至 30% 以下,市场经济学家预期,由卡拉汉主持的货币政策委员会(MPC)于下周开会时,可能将启动降息措施。

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      "title": "比亚迪「大汉 EV」正式上市 :纯电续航1008公里 标配后轮转向",
      "shortTitle": "比亚迪「大汉 EV」正式上市 :纯电续航1008公里 标配后",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630128/l/ebd6d55b8f3c669e85e0817fc7d9aa71.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-14T05:40:06.000Z",
      "description": "比亚迪王朝网大汉EV正式上市,推3款D+级纯电行政旗舰,售23.59万至27.59万元
全系搭载102.3kWh刀片磷酸铁锂电池,CLTC最长续航1008公里,10%充至70%仅5分钟
配云辇-A空悬、后轮转向与天神之眼B雷射雷达版,支援高速/城市NOA及自动泊车",
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    {
      "id": 20207,
      "title": "艾司摩尔Q3营收117亿欧元写新猷 客户急卡位2030年设备订单",
      "shortTitle": "艾司摩尔Q3营收117亿欧元写新猷 客户急卡位2030年设备",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630166/l/c2dc1f2fb593609cd3cdd11fc12b0ca9.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-14T06:42:10.000Z",
      "description": "荷兰半导体微影设备商艾司摩尔(ASML-US)今(14)日发布2026年第三季财报,受惠于AI晶片投资热潮与设备升级需求强劲,单季营收冲上117亿欧元并创下历史新高,税后纯益达50亿欧元,单季毛利率更优于预期攀升至57.5%;执行长Christophe Fouquet指出,AI投资持续扩大,目前到2028年的产能已供不应求,甚至已有客户洽谈至2030年的相关机台订单。 展望全年度营运表现,艾司摩尔预估2026年全年营收将落在440亿至450亿欧元之间,全年毛利率预估约为56%。针对即将到来的第四",
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    {
      "id": 20242,
      "title": "〈陆股盘后〉中国9月出口额激增36.3% 市场不领情 三大指数走低",
      "shortTitle": "〈陆股盘后〉中国9月出口额激增36.3% 市场不领情 三大指",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6629598/l/7b1d1ad2202288b468183b385217dca1.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-14T08:30:06.000Z",
      "description": "中国9月出口额为4,471.8亿美元,年增36.3%。
海关总署副署长王军说,前三季外贸增速是近5年同期最快。
A股三大指数走低,上证跌0.88%、深证跌1.97%、创业板跌3.10%。",
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      "id": 20243,
      "title": "链结资产中心(AegisClear) 计划收购币护 Aegis Custody Taiwan",
      "shortTitle": "链结资产中心(AegisClear) 计划收购币护 Aegi",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630269/l/a11c85a26230403b171c24933b1bfecc.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-14T08:29:10.000Z",
      "description": "AegisClear拟收购台北币护Aegis Custody Taiwan,获台湾投资人支持。
收购涵盖HSM托管、稳定币发行与RWA私人信贷代币化源代码。
AegisClear称将强化AAMC,并以SOC 2、VASP与AML/KYC合规技术服务金融机构。",
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      "id": 20251,
      "title": "柴油供应吃紧恐延至2027年下半年!IEA示警库存难补 川普与普丁供应协议惹议",
      "shortTitle": "柴油供应吃紧恐延至2027年下半年!IEA示警库存难补 川普",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630279/l/c61f12da8c8b6ccf353de1a7f2e7acad.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-14T09:30:02.000Z",
      "description": "IEA警告柴油供应限制将延续至明年,全球柴油市场吃紧恐到2027年下半年才缓解。
9月全球柴油出口较去年少70万桶,俄罗斯与中东日减130万桶;新加坡、欧美批发价创高。
IEA估2026年全球石油需求日减260万桶,波湾若再受攻击,供应复苏恐更脆弱。",
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    {
      "id": 20169,
      "title": "中国9月出口额激增36.3% 进口额成长31%",
      "shortTitle": "中国9月出口额激增36.3% 进口额成长31%",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6629597/l/008833c88815da6795357d9d9d6f8b93.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-14T03:06:26.000Z",
      "description": "中国海关总署14日(周三)公布的数据显示,以美元计,9月出口总额为4,471.8亿美元,较一年前增长36.3%;进口总额3,136.5亿美元,成长31%。 今年1~9月,中国出口总额为3.3707兆美元,较去年同期增长21.3%;进口总额为2.4325兆美元,增加27.5%,贸易顺差为9,381.1亿美元。 海关总署副署长王军14日在国新办记者会上表示,前三季外贸增速是近5年同期最快,季度和月度增速也总体呈现加快态势。 王军说,横向看,最新国际数据显示,这样的贸易增速在主要经济体中位居前列,中国",
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      "id": 20171,
      "title": "全球债市抛售潮免惊!私募股权巨头KKR:AI锁定亚洲优质信贷资产的良机",
      "shortTitle": "全球债市抛售潮免惊!私募股权巨头KKR:AI锁定亚洲优质信贷",
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      "createdAt": "2026-10-14T02:50:04.000Z",
      "description": "KKR称全球债券抛售带来固定收益机会,可锁定近似亚洲垃圾债的收益率。
截至今年6月,KKR管理资产规模达7960亿美元;亚洲投资等级美元债平均殖利率5.8%。
受中东冲突推高油价与央行紧缩影响,投资级债殖利率升至两年多来高点。",
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      "id": 20172,
      "title": "伊朗不让川普压低油价 加强荷姆兹袭船攻势、剑指美国期中选情",
      "shortTitle": "伊朗不让川普压低油价 加强荷姆兹袭船攻势、剑指美国期中选情",
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      "description": "伊朗官员称已对荷姆兹海峡商船采新战术,近10天攻击次数明显增加。
过去48小时海峡周边至少5起油轮与商船事件;JMIC维持威胁在「严重」等级。
伊朗欲藉封锁海峡推升油价、影响美国期中选举;美军则称已摧毁部分侦查船。",
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      "id": 20185,
      "title": "数千亿美元砸下去会成功?祖克柏亲曝押注AI没把握",
      "shortTitle": "数千亿美元砸下去会成功?祖克柏亲曝押注AI没把握",
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      "createdAt": "2026-10-14T03:58:24.000Z",
      "description": "祖克柏称去年为AI基建要先砸1,000亿至2,000亿美元,当时不确定产品能否成功。
Meta财务长Susan Li多次警告失败代价庞大,祖克柏坦言当时根本不清楚能否成功。
Meta新AI模型宣称可对标ChatGPT、Claude,10月21日财报将受支出攀升与自由现金流下滑检验。",
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    "shortTitle": "防范长期剧烈贬值 土耳其央行拟微调汇率政策加快里拉贬值步调",
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    "description": "土耳其央行总裁卡拉汉称,正让里拉以更快速度贬值,以避免未来出现更剧烈汇率疲软。
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    "content": "<p>据知情人士透露,土耳其中央银行总裁卡拉汉(Fatih Karahan)于曼谷出席国际货币基金(IMF)与世界银行年会的闭门会议时向投资人透露,土耳其目前正允许里拉以更快的速度贬值,以防止未来长期出现更剧烈的汇率疲软。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630351/l/2df79cd07fa531c9637fe373494e71b5.jpg\" alt=\"防范长期剧烈贬值 土耳其央行拟微调汇率政策加快里拉贬值步调\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>对于上述闭门会议的讨论内容,土耳其央行拒绝发表评论。</p>\n\n<p>据《彭博》报导,卡拉汉向投资人解释,由于当前经济活动有所放缓,汇率贬值对通膨的「传递效应」已有所减弱,这也是央行选择在此时调整汇率贬值节奏的主因。</p>\n\n<p>他强调维持可持续汇率架构的重要性,并指出其总裁任期将于 2028 年 2 月届满,希望能借此建立稳定机制,防止继任者未来感到有必要进行大幅度贬值,从而抹去迄今所取得的所有政策进展。</p>\n\n<p>此外,卡拉汉补充说,微调贬值步调时必须确保国内储户与家庭能继续认为持有里拉资产的报酬率具备吸引力。</p>\n\n<p>土耳其央行长期以来将里拉的稳健放缓作为其「反通膨策略」的一环,采取实质货币升值的控管模式,即确保里拉每月的贬值幅度低于每月的通膨率。这种高度可预测的汇率走势配合高利率政策,成功带动了数十亿美元的外资透过「利差交易」流入土耳其。</p>\n\n<p>目前土耳其基准一周附买回利率(repo rate)高达 37%。随着今年 9 月年通膨率近五年来首次降至 30% 以下,市场经济学家预期,由卡拉汉主持的货币政策委员会(MPC)于下周开会时,可能将启动降息措施。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20242.html\" title=\"〈陆股盘后〉中国9月出口额激增36.3% 市场不领情 三大指数走低\">〈陆股盘后〉中国9月出口额激增36.3% 市场不领情 三大指数走低</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20209.html\" title=\"痛批蓄意推高油价!川普:胡塞武装这波行动「非常恶劣」 可能要求土耳其加入打击\">痛批蓄意推高油价!川普:胡塞武装这波行动「非常恶劣」 可能要求土耳其加入打击</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20223.html\" title=\"欧洲央行委员:通膨过高 可能不得不再升息\">欧洲央行委员:通膨过高 可能不得不再升息</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20195.html\" title=\"川普宣布格陵兰将启动大规模油气、矿产探勘\">川普宣布格陵兰将启动大规模油气、矿产探勘</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20272.html\" title=\"〈台币〉台积电法说前夕市场观望 汇市高低洗盘1.5角微升1.2分\">〈台币〉台积电法说前夕市场观望 汇市高低洗盘1.5角微升1.2分</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20169.html\" title=\"中国9月出口额激增36.3% 进口额成长31%\">中国9月出口额激增36.3% 进口额成长31%</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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