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德法10年期公债利差突破159个基点 创15年来最高

2026-10-21 20:32:16 网络 阅读(1)

做为衡量法国公债信用风险的指标,法国10年期公债与德国10年期公债之间的殖利率差,周三(21日)扩大6个基点,达到159.4个基点,创下15年来的最高水准。

德法10年期公债利差突破159个基点 创15年来最高

这项被视为欧元区信用风险重要指标的利差,自9月下旬以来急遽扩大,主因市场对法国政府化解债务负担的预算过关能力存疑。法国国会目前呈现严重分歧,就明年预算案达成妥协十分艰巨,且距离总统大选仅剩六个月,政局更难趋于稳定。

此外,法国10年期公债殖利率更自2002年以来首次升至5%;欧元兑美元表现逊于多数G10货币,一度下跌0.2%至1.1214美元。

上周末民众因不满生活成本飙涨而爆发暴力抗议,加上欧洲天然气期货大涨约4%与布兰特原油升破每桶110美元等能源因素,使市场动荡进一步加剧。

针对财政与政治局势,多伦多Dominion Bank资深利率策略师Pooja Kumra指出:「随着焦点转回即将进行的预算表决,利差可能持续承受压力。即便预算案获得通过,投资人仍对财政失能与政治碎片化的长期迹象感到忧心。」

德意志银行执行长Christian Sewing强调,法国财政与政治不稳定是令人担忧的主因,且这种市场波动预计将持续至明年的总统大选。

彭博跨资产策略师Ven Ram分析指出:「由于法国公债对同业走势更具敏感度,全球主权债殖利率上升将对其造成冲击。在赤字开支与通膨失控推升美债及德债长天期殖利率的预期下,法国公债处境显得尤为脆弱。」

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      "shortTitle": "利率走高波及债市?柜买:今年永续债发行档数可望达标 金额规模",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634931/l/1569622db5e2b86bc43db7a8614c8336.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T06:14:27.000Z",
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今年目标为43档、1300亿元,估Q4可补足11档,档数可达标,但金额仍有360.2亿元差距。
利率走高推升发行成本,企业若未及时取得永续债资格,常改发一般公司债;柜买将续推永续金融。",
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      "shortTitle": "股价3日狂飙逾30% 「人形机器人第一股」宇树科技发布警讯",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634925/l/611a9e20b16dff4803c0d8fd5f7a3480.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T07:10:03.000Z",
      "description": "被誉为「人形机器人第一股」的宇树科技于10月20日晚间发布股票交易异常波动公告。公司股票在10月16日、19日及20日连续三个交易日,收盘价累计涨幅偏离值超过30%。 截至20日收盘,宇树科技每股报526.03元,单日上涨6.07%,总市值重新站上2,000亿元大关,达约2,128亿元。 经公司自查并向控股股东与实质控制人核实,目前营运状况正常,不存在应披露而未披露的重大资讯,相关高阶主管与大股东在波动期间也无买卖股票。 宇树科技特别提醒投资人注意高估值风险。截至10月20日,公司滚动本益比高达",
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    {
      "id": 21289,
      "title": "DeepSeek一张GPU每小时创收38美元 推理毛利率估逾95%",
      "shortTitle": "DeepSeek一张GPU每小时创收38美元 推理毛利率估逾",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634881/l/f0872ddc5465f30706bf5773a081b77b.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T07:10:03.000Z",
      "description": "DeepSeek开源内部推理框架DeepInfer与deepseek-recipe,支援NVIDIA GPU、华为升腾NPU。
官方揭露V4.1-Flash单丛集日处理155兆Token,外界推算推理毛利率最高逾95%。
业界认为此举凸显AI推理竞争转向降本增效,但高毛利不等于公司整体获利。",
      "pv": 1,
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    {
      "id": 21290,
      "title": "50+港口!欧洲地中海多国工会拟10月30日联合罢工 船期、装卸面临延误风险",
      "shortTitle": "50+港口!欧洲地中海多国工会拟10月30日联合罢工 船期、",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634953/l/ed11ce8bfed9f5e7c01805f9f4a1203f.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T07:05:52.000Z",
      "description": "Ports in Action促欧洲及地中海10国、11工会、50多港口10月30日联合行动
义大利8港为核心,热那亚、焦亚陶罗等参与;法国CGT、希腊比雷埃夫斯也响应
若罢工成行,欧洲航线恐延3至5天,并增滞港费、改港费",
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      "title": "AI晶片需求强劲推动 日本9月出口成长16.7%",
      "shortTitle": "AI晶片需求强劲推动 日本9月出口成长16.7%",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634954/l/745c9100a37d909d357a03ed7e68096a.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T06:50:04.000Z",
      "description": "日本9月出口年增16.7%,连13个月成长,半导体与AI相关产品、汽车出口带动,对美国出口年增22.9%。
9月进口年增18.9%放缓,贸易赤字缩至5,366亿日元;政府估10月原油采购可回升。
大和总研称AI需求续撑出口,但中东风险、高油价与美国AI投资放缓恐冲击日本出口;市场关注日银升息讯号。",
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    {
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      "title": "〈陆股盘后〉沪指跌0.6% 守住3,700点",
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两市及北交所1,979家涨,3,360家跌。
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      "shortTitle": "「罗斯福号」航母将派往中东 美军在中东增兵1万人",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635022/l/36059037f875167ace7513b0f1d5fed4.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T08:26:19.000Z",
      "description": "美国「罗斯福号」航母近日抵达日本,进行物资补给,「罗斯福号」航母被派遣往中东地区。 两名美国官员20日(周二)说,美国向中东派遣「罗斯福号」航母打击群和第13海军陆战队远征队。「罗斯福号」航母将于11月底抵达中东,这些新的部署将为美军在中东增加约1万名士兵。 「罗斯福号」航母将成为美军在中东部署的第三艘航母。美国目前已有两艘航空母舰部署在中东,分别是「布希号」和「华盛顿号」。 第三艘航母将为美国提供更多选择,美国总统川普正考虑在期中选举之后加强对伊朗的打击力道。 「罗斯福号」航母于9月27日离开",
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    {
      "id": 21301,
      "title": "80万人上街、数千人被捕:法国爆发近年最大骚乱 究竟怎么了?",
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      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T08:20:02.000Z",
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马克宏、勒科尔尼互指责任;外媒称法国债务占GDP119%、政坛极化,治理与民生压力加剧。",
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    {
      "id": 21312,
      "title": "美乌和谈推动与风险溢价退潮 小麦期货跌至11周新低",
      "shortTitle": "美乌和谈推动与风险溢价退潮 小麦期货跌至11周新低",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634965/l/c38bed39aaa3871f11567882c1988063.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T09:10:04.000Z",
      "description": "川普加大对乌克兰施压促与俄达和平协议,国际小麦期货连跌5日,创8月5日来低点。
美国小麦出口疲软、南半球收获期加上投机基金净空头创3个月高,进一步压低小麦价格。
若乌俄停火,市场预期两国待售库存将释出,供应增加;但黑海风险与供应链隐忧仍未消除。",
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市场忧法国国会难通过明年预算案,债务负担与政治分歧加剧风险
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