天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-SpaceX宏大AI目标挑战现实极限马斯克看好明年新增10GW算力

《MarketWatch》报导，即使是最看好SpaceX(SPCX-US)的投资人当中，也有人对执行长马斯克(Elon Musk)能否实现他为公司人工智慧业务设定的宏大目标抱持怀疑。

SpaceX宏大AI目标挑战现实极限马斯克看好明年新增10GW算力

销售AI运算能力已迅速成为SpaceX的重要业务，在最新一季占公司营收逾半，未来几季所占比重可能还会大幅提高。

周二财报电话会议公布的最新目标，显示这项业务可能以多快速度扩张。截至9月一季，SpaceX资料中心上线的AI运算能力不到2GW。公司目标是在今年底前提升至2.5到3GW，之后再大幅扩充。

马斯克表示，他「相当有信心」公司能在2027年新增10GW的运算能力，而SpaceX在明年底前让超过20GW的运算能力上线，也存在「非零的可能性」。

马斯克在SpaceX第三季财报电话会议上补充，「如果明年底新增的运算能力不到13GW，我会感到意外。」

作为比较，光是1GW的电力，就足以供应约75万户家庭使用一年。马斯克希望达到的规模，足以供应约1,500万户家庭。如此迅速的建置庞大产能，不仅成本极高，也极具挑战性。SpaceX面临的障碍包括取得大量GPU、支付相关费用、应对资料中心面临的政治阻力，以及取得足够电力。

SpaceX能否实现运算能力目标，甚至能否接近这些目标，对投资人而言都至关重要。首先，AI题材正是推动SpaceX股价上涨的主要动力，也是市场乐观预测的基础。

摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth目前认为，SpaceX股价可能升至500美元，较目前高出逾三倍。他的估值架构假设，随着云端业务动能增强，SpaceX在2028年的每股盈余可能超过24美元。

作为对照，市场预期SpaceX今年将出现亏损，而Anmuth对2028年的每股盈余预测，接近FactSet追踪分析师平均预估值的三倍。

Anmuth预估SpaceX到2027年底将拥有10GW的运算能力。他在报告中指出，近期大幅上调预估是「相当可观的调整」，但「SpaceX要达到这些数字，许多条件都必须顺利，包括成功扩建运算能力、取得大量资金，以及持续受惠于非常强劲的需求环境」。

另一方面，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas预估，SpaceX到明年底的运算能力将为8.3GW，原因包括「电力取得情况不明朗、执行风险高，以及融资方面的压力」。

D.A. Davidson科技研究主管Gil Luria表示，SpaceX在2027年将运算能力提高至目前的三倍，更不用说六倍，「看来不切实际」。他认为马斯克的说法「渴望成功」，反映出他对SpaceX及运算能力需求持续强劲的信心。

SpaceX云端业务目标之所以重要，另一主要原因是公司为实现这些雄心壮志，正投入庞大资金。Jonas预估，SpaceX在2027年的资本支出将达约2,780亿美元，其中87%将用于AI相关计划。这将远高于他预估SpaceX今年的资本支出860亿美元。专家表示，SpaceX可能需要进一步举债，才能为大规模建置计划提供资金。

SpaceX财务长Bret Johnsen在第三季财报电话会议上表示，公司具备「非常强健的资产负债表」、投资等级信用评级，以及「多种可取得的债务资金来源」。今年稍早，SpaceX宣布发行250亿美元债券。

据报导，SpaceX也计划再借款约400亿美元，用于购买辉达(NVDA-US)晶片，相关交易预计2027年完成。德银分析师Edison Yu估计，SpaceX明年的支出将由1,400亿美元的债务及结构性融资支应。

尽管分析师表示，SpaceX可能不太需要担心能否发行新债，但AI热潮已开始出现裂痕，尤其是CoreWeave(CRWV-US)相关风险。根据摩根士丹利，今年全球已发行近4,500亿美元的AI相关债务，高于去年的2,160亿美元。

Fitch Solutions旗下CreditSights航空航太与国防部门主管Matt Woodruff表示，「对债券持有人而言，最重要的讯息是，SpaceX的获利能力如今成长得够快，足以跟上其惊人的支出计划。公司仍需要大量资金，但本季(第三季)表现让这种成长模式的融资路径变得可信得多。」

SpaceX表示，新增运算能力的投资成本可在不到一年内回收，这可能降低公司对外部融资的依赖程度。Radio Free Mobile分析师Richard Windsor估计，短期运算合约的即期市场价格，每GW约介于300亿至500亿美元之间。

不过Windsor指出，市场可能逐渐回归常态，最快可能在明年，届时每GW的价格可能降至约200亿美元，进而压缩SpaceX的利润率。但SpaceX目前的发展已为整个AI产业「注入了一股亟需的动力」。

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为扩充AI，SpaceX恐需大举举债与砸资本支出。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635449/l/4820d7de16fb3aef71b56f592c63b852.jpg", "content": "《MarketWatch》报导，即使是最看好SpaceX(SPCX-US)的投资人当中，也有人对执行长马斯克(Elon Musk)能否实现他为公司人工智慧业务设定的宏大目标抱持怀疑。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635449/l/4820d7de16fb3aef71b56f592c63b852.jpg\" alt=\"SpaceX宏大AI目标挑战现实极限马斯克看好明年新增10GW算力\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n销售AI运算能力已迅速成为SpaceX的重要业务，在最新一季占公司营收逾半，未来几季所占比重可能还会大幅提高。\n\n周二财报电话会议公布的最新目标，显示这项业务可能以多快速度扩张。截至9月一季，SpaceX资料中心上线的AI运算能力不到2GW。公司目标是在今年底前提升至2.5到3GW，之后再大幅扩充。\n\n马斯克表示，他「相当有信心」公司能在2027年新增10GW的运算能力，而SpaceX在明年底前让超过20GW的运算能力上线，也存在「非零的可能性」。\n\n马斯克在SpaceX第三季财报电话会议上补充，「如果明年底新增的运算能力不到13GW，我会感到意外。」\n\n作为比较，光是1GW的电力，就足以供应约75万户家庭使用一年。马斯克希望达到的规模，足以供应约1,500万户家庭。如此迅速的建置庞大产能，不仅成本极高，也极具挑战性。SpaceX面临的障碍包括取得大量GPU、支付相关费用、应对资料中心面临的政治阻力，以及取得足够电力。\n\nSpaceX能否实现运算能力目标，甚至能否接近这些目标，对投资人而言都至关重要。首先，AI题材正是推动SpaceX股价上涨的主要动力，也是市场乐观预测的基础。\n\n摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth目前认为，SpaceX股价可能升至500美元，较目前高出逾三倍。他的估值架构假设，随着云端业务动能增强，SpaceX在2028年的每股盈余可能超过24美元。\n\n作为对照，市场预期SpaceX今年将出现亏损，而Anmuth对2028年的每股盈余预测，接近FactSet追踪分析师平均预估值的三倍。\n\nAnmuth预估SpaceX到2027年底将拥有10GW的运算能力。他在报告中指出，近期大幅上调预估是「相当可观的调整」，但「SpaceX要达到这些数字，许多条件都必须顺利，包括成功扩建运算能力、取得大量资金，以及持续受惠于非常强劲的需求环境」。\n\n另一方面，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas预估，SpaceX到明年底的运算能力将为8.3GW，原因包括「电力取得情况不明朗、执行风险高，以及融资方面的压力」。\n\nD.A. Davidson科技研究主管Gil Luria表示，SpaceX在2027年将运算能力提高至目前的三倍，更不用说六倍，「看来不切实际」。他认为马斯克的说法「渴望成功」，反映出他对SpaceX及运算能力需求持续强劲的信心。\n\nSpaceX云端业务目标之所以重要，另一主要原因是公司为实现这些雄心壮志，正投入庞大资金。Jonas预估，SpaceX在2027年的资本支出将达约2,780亿美元，其中87%将用于AI相关计划。这将远高于他预估SpaceX今年的资本支出860亿美元。专家表示，SpaceX可能需要进一步举债，才能为大规模建置计划提供资金。\n\nSpaceX财务长Bret Johnsen在第三季财报电话会议上表示，公司具备「非常强健的资产负债表」、投资等级信用评级，以及「多种可取得的债务资金来源」。今年稍早，SpaceX宣布发行250亿美元债券。\n\n据报导，SpaceX也计划再借款约400亿美元，用于购买辉达(NVDA-US)晶片，相关交易预计2027年完成。德银分析师Edison Yu估计，SpaceX明年的支出将由1,400亿美元的债务及结构性融资支应。\n\n尽管分析师表示，SpaceX可能不太需要担心能否发行新债，但AI热潮已开始出现裂痕，尤其是CoreWeave(CRWV-US)相关风险。根据摩根士丹利，今年全球已发行近4,500亿美元的AI相关债务，高于去年的2,160亿美元。\n\nFitch Solutions旗下CreditSights航空航太与国防部门主管Matt Woodruff表示，「对债券持有人而言，最重要的讯息是，SpaceX的获利能力如今成长得够快，足以跟上其惊人的支出计划。公司仍需要大量资金，但本季(第三季)表现让这种成长模式的融资路径变得可信得多。」\n\nSpaceX表示，新增运算能力的投资成本可在不到一年内回收，这可能降低公司对外部融资的依赖程度。Radio Free Mobile分析师Richard Windsor估计，短期运算合约的即期市场价格，每GW约介于300亿至500亿美元之间。\n\n不过Windsor指出，市场可能逐渐回归常态，最快可能在明年，届时每GW的价格可能降至约200亿美元，进而压缩SpaceX的利润率。但SpaceX目前的发展已为整个AI产业「注入了一股亟需的动力」。\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21431.html\" title=\"川普特使：美国无法永远保证波斯湾盟友安全\">川普特使：美国无法永远保证波斯湾盟友安全</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21430.html\" title=\"胡塞扩大攻击美国下令「非紧急」政府雇员及家属撤离沙国\">胡塞扩大攻击美国下令「非紧急」政府雇员及家属撤离沙国</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21453.html\" title=\"先进封装进度分歧台积电CoPoS拚2028年量产、三星玻璃基板卡关\">先进封装进度分歧台积电CoPoS拚2028年量产、三星玻璃基板卡关</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21477.html\" title=\"美光直球回应长鑫4F² 表态不跟进、3D DRAM长期成本更具优势\">美光直球回应长鑫4F² 表态不跟进、3D DRAM长期成本更具优势</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21462.html\" title=\"《外交事务》：官僚枷锁扼杀创新欧洲经济为何被「自己人」拖累？\">《外交事务》：官僚枷锁扼杀创新欧洲经济为何被「自己人」拖累？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21475.html\" title=\"〈陆股盘后〉政策希望落空中国股市坠入熊市\">〈陆股盘后〉政策希望落空中国股市坠入熊市</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 3, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6635449", "createdAt": "2026-10-22T07:30:05.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-22T08:35:42.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 30, "pid": 0, "name": "实时", "pinyin": "hour", "path": "/hour", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

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