天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-IMF预测2026年越南人均GDP将首度超越印尼

IMF预测2026年越南人均GDP将首度超越印尼

2026-10-30 16:12:22 网络阅读（1）
根据国际货币基金(IMF)最新预测，越南2026年的每人平均名义国内生产毛额(人均GDP)将达到5,259美元(年增8.9%)，首度超越印尼的5,153美元。这意味着越南在东协(ASEAN)国家中的人均GDP排名将升至第五位，仅次于泰国。目前越南人口约为1亿人，而印尼人口则约为2.9亿人。
IMF预测2026年越南人均GDP将首度超越印尼
越南之所以能展现强劲的经济成长动能，主要得益于其逐渐成为替代中国的高科技制造基地。随着电子零组件与半导体供应链加速转移，国际产业巨头如台湾鸿海集团与南韩三星电子均持续扩大在越南的生产规模，带动智慧型手机等电子产品大量出口。
数据显示，今年前九个月越南出口额高达4,343亿美元(年增25%)；外国直接投资(FDI)达211亿美元(年增12%)，作为投资趋势先行指标的注册金额更暴增76%至503亿美元。
此外，越南政府积极推动公共建设也是促进经济成长的核心引擎。越南计划在2026全年投入约1000兆越南盾(约387亿美元)推进全国道路、机场等基础建设。
越南政府设定2026年经济成长率至少达10%的目标，而IMF最新报告则预测越南2026年经济成长率将达8.4%，高居东南亚各国之冠。
相对而言，印尼的经济成长率则维持在5%左右(预估2026年为5.1%)。印尼虽然极力吸引电动车等产业的外资挹注，但未能有效转化为足够的就业机会与实质收入成长，加上印尼盾走弱，抑制了以美元计价的名义人均GDP成长速度。
展望未来，越南设定目标于2030年将人均GDP提升至8,500美元(相当于泰国目前水准)。
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    "description": "IMF预测越南2026年人均GDP将达5,259美元，首度超越印尼5,153美元，东协排名升至第五。&#10;越南受惠高科技制造转移，鸿海、三星扩产带动出口；前九月出口4,343亿美元、FDI 211亿美元。&#10;越南规划2026年投入约1000兆盾拚基建，全年经济成长目标至少10%。",
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