天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-美国民主党胜选预期引爆避险潮日股暴跌日元走升

美国民主党胜选预期引爆避险潮日股暴跌日元走升

2026-11-04 13:40:35 网络阅读（1）
受美国期中选举开票序盘显示民主党居于优势影响，市场担忧人工智慧(AI)与资料中心可能面临更严格的法规监管，引发日本市场周三(4日)出现强烈避险情绪。
美国民主党胜选预期引爆避险潮日股暴跌日元走升
日股周三跌势于午后扩大，日经平均指数一度大跌逾2,800点，跌幅达4.6%，下探60,206点，跌破被视为关键支撑的200日移动平均线61,880。东证指数(TOPIX)同样重挫3.3%。相较于股市受创，汇市则涌入避险买盘，美元遭遇抛售，日元兑美元升值0.7%至157.65附近。
本轮卖压集中于AI与半导体类股，爱德万测试(Advantest)一度重挫9.6%、软银集团(SoftBank Group)大跌10%，铠侠(Kioxia)暴跌15%。卖压并扩散至商社、机械及金融等类股。
SMBC信托银行投资调查部长山口真弘分析指出，日股先前因企业财报强劲获买盘支撑，加上前一日适逢日本国定假日休市，导致投资人进行补跌平仓，以及信用交易筹码面不佳，加剧了卖压。
针对市场焦虑，机构法人看法分歧。野村资产管理首席策略师石黑英之认为，当前走跌属投机资金根据「民主党交易」进行的机械式抛售，市场过度焦虑且过于短视。他指出，AI发展攸关美中霸权争夺，趋势难以止步，随着企业基本面维持强劲，加上空头回补，后续股价有望回升。
大和资产管理首席策略师建部和礼表示，众议院过半已在预期中，焦点在于参议院开票。若民主党仅微幅控制参议院，卖压将于短期结束；若大胜过半，AI逆风恐将延续更长时间。
在汇市与展望方面，SMBC日兴证券资深策略师丸山凛途指出，虽然民主党优势推升日元至157关卡附近，但考量美中竞争与总统否决权，严格规制难以实施，美元卖压终将反转。
蓝天银行首席市场策略师诸我晃补充，若民主党夺下两院，初期市场反应为避险与美元走弱，但当前美元抛售亦受到美股期指疲软与中东地缘局势缓和等因素影响。
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