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〈能源盘后〉全球供应过剩压过地缘风险 油价本周再跌2.5% 连两周收跌

2026-11-14 06:55:15 网络 阅读(1)

全球供应过剩迹象增加,加上美国对伊朗持续封锁、战事再度升级的风险降低,油价周五(13日)走弱,连续第二周收跌。

〈能源盘后〉全球供应过剩压过地缘风险 油价本周再跌2.5% 连两周收跌

布兰特原油期货结算价每桶95.84美元,上涨2美分,涨幅0.02%;美国西德州中级原油(WTI)期货收于每桶88.56美元,下跌18美分,跌幅0.20%。两大基准油价本周均预计下跌约2.5%,前一周则分别重挫16%与13%。

国际能源总署(IEA)周五发布的报告指出,全球石油供应过剩情况升高。在美国与以色列对伊朗战争的地缘政治风险降低之际,市场焦点正从供应短缺转向供应过剩。

Price Futures Group资深分析师Phil Flynn表示,几个月前市场最担心的是供应短缺,如今最大的忧虑看来已变成供应过剩。

油市本周波动剧烈。美伊关系一度出现缓和希望,但叶门胡塞武装攻击沙乌地阿拉伯能源设施,以及波斯湾油轮遇袭,抵销了部分利空。

美国总统川普在Truth Social表示,结束战争不需要与伊朗达成协议。Lipow Oil Associates总裁Andrew Lipow指出,油市正受到中东供应增加与美伊谈判立场未变两股力量拉扯;伊朗仍拒绝让核武检查人员进入境内。

油价走弱也与美国需求转缓有关。新德里研究机构SS WealthStreet创办人Sugandha Sachdeva表示,原油与燃料库存上升,显示消费前景相对疲弱。

美国能源资讯署(EIA)周四表示,上周美国原油与燃料库存增加,原因包括成品油需求转弱及原油进口大增。

荷姆兹海峡的石油运输风险仍未解除。伊朗军方周四称,四艘油轮在未理会警告后于海峡遭爆炸波及;路透无法立即核实伊朗方面的说法。

胡塞武装同日宣称,攻击沙乌地东西输油管线的一座泵站、红海港市延布的一处石油设施,以及沙乌地阿美(2222-SE)位于首都利雅德的一栋建筑。供应增加与需求偏弱压抑油价,但荷姆兹海峡及沙国能源设施若再遭攻击,仍可能干扰中东原油出口。

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      "shortTitle": "算力超级周期迈入分层时代 长鑫科技展示全场景记忆体新局",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6661597/l/b452c5756de54f1cb36a183fc0a714f8.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-11-13T06:20:04.000Z",
      "description": "长鑫科技在IC China 2026首展伺服器、手机与汽车三大场景记忆体产品矩阵,回应算力需求推升下的分层竞争。
伺服器端推DDR5 RDIMM与MRDIMM;手机端量产LPDDR6、速率12800Mbps,并已搭载小米18 Fold。
2026年前三季研发投入110.71亿元、年增73.03%。",
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    {
      "id": 25436,
      "title": "白银跌深是重大利多?高盛:尚未确认触底 三大信号显示多空力量正重新平衡",
      "shortTitle": "白银跌深是重大利多?高盛:尚未确认触底 三大信号显示多空力量",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6661591/l/e3f184aae5694b9a5ac6ba4685db58f3.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-11-13T06:00:14.000Z",
      "description": "投机净多头降至近两年低位,10/6至11/3非商业帐户卖出约23亿美元白银期货,新增空头约26亿美元。
中国太阳能股反弹,高盛中国太阳能类股组合涨7.1%,同期白银反弹约6%。
选择权下行保护需求降温,25 Delta偏斜回落、波动率稳在38%至39%,白银对鹰派讯号反应转趋温和。",
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    {
      "id": 25437,
      "title": "全球占比近八成!微短剧成网路流量新战场:中国市场规模破140亿美元 京东上线「追剧福利社」抢滩",
      "shortTitle": "全球占比近八成!微短剧成网路流量新战场:中国市场规模破140",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6661358/l/ae37e60cfd8a5e26ecf56b6f0a7c0847.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-11-13T06:00:13.000Z",
      "description": "全球微短剧市场去年近180亿美元,中国市场逾140亿美元、占77.78%,用户达8.5亿
今年前8月中国上线微短剧43万部,AI剧占九成;AI剧成本仅10万至20万元、周期缩至天
京东上线「京东追剧福利社」抢攻内容导购,红果、淘宝、拼多多、美团也加速布局短剧入口",
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    {
      "id": 25443,
      "title": "债券市场如今面临比AI冲击更大的恐惧",
      "shortTitle": "债券市场如今面临比AI冲击更大的恐惧",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6661137/l/01b7c7d60e979c8ea674a221c2686eef.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-11-13T07:30:03.000Z",
      "description": "Fed恐更激进升息,12月升半码机率15%,明年1月底前累计升两次机率逾66%。
美债遭抛售,2年期殖利率升13.7基点至4.86%,10年期升至5.10%,创11月新高。
30年期公债标售250亿美元,得标殖利率5.441%;川普对伊朗强硬言论带动布兰特油价近96美元。",
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      "id": 25444,
      "title": "中芯国际第三季财报超预期 净利年增逾九成",
      "shortTitle": "中芯国际第三季财报超预期 净利年增逾九成",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6661595/l/1fc981a8bbf920b8fd477e2ba2c80427.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-11-13T07:20:06.000Z",
      "description": "中芯国际第3季营收31.9亿美元、年增28.1%,毛利率29.9%创近4年新高,皆优于原先指引
前三季归母净利73.14亿元人民币、年增91.6%;第3季产能利用率升至97.3%,晶圆出货303.37万片
公司称AI带动成熟制程需求、订单能见度可延续至明年",
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      "title": "民主党展开辉达调查:质疑黄仁勋与川普的晶片交易与2600万美元政治捐款",
      "shortTitle": "民主党展开辉达调查:质疑黄仁勋与川普的晶片交易与2600万美",
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信中指川普要求H200、H20先运抵美国再课税,形同对辉达与AMD对中销售抽成15%至25%。
另质疑商务部对Megaspeed尽调不足,及辉达捐赠2,600万美元与交易批准是否相关。",
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      "id": 25453,
      "title": "〈陆股盘后〉创业板指领跌 沪指连二跌 周线转跌0.41%",
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      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6661653/l/f7ace8ad7aabaed91fd715fe9f9c5917.jpg",
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AI硬体、通讯设备、半导体、CPO及电子零件股承压,多档跌停,成交额1兆6557亿元
银行、白酒、保险与影视股逆势走强;中国银河称11月重心转向业绩,关注记忆体、先进封装等",
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      "id": 25454,
      "title": "SemiAnalysis:当Nvidia失去黄仁勋 将面对三大核心风险",
      "shortTitle": "SemiAnalysis:当Nvidia失去黄仁勋 将面对三",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6661650/l/672c06f8d2497c8709643ebeab0a4276.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-11-13T08:20:04.000Z",
      "description": "黄仁勋掌舵辉达33年后离任,董事会调查内控与行为伦理争议,克雷斯暂代执行长并找接班人。
SemiAnalysis称逾1.5GW受限AI晶片流入中国,RASA法案推进后,美对中AI晶片封锁恐升级。
分析指辉达失去「Founder Mode」后,技术决策、供应链议价与开源生态恐受创。",
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      "title": "比特币跌破7万美元大关 今年8月以来首次",
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      "description": "比特币跌破70,000美元,最低至67,550美元,较历史高点回档约20%
辉达高层震荡、美国CPI高于预期及Fed 12月升息预期升温,压抑科技股与加密市场
比特币现货ETF连5日净流出,MSCI拟排除MSTR,期货多头爆仓逾5亿美元",
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      "title": "索马鲁肽眼疾风险冲上热搜 专家提六大禁用族群",
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FDA称126项临床试验显示,NAION发生率每10万人年6.4例,高于对照组3.8例,要求增列警语。
专家警告网路乱开处方与私购药,严禁6类族群使用,停药若未控管易复胖。",
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    "title": "〈能源盘后〉全球供应过剩压过地缘风险 油价本周再跌2.5% 连两周收跌",
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    "description": "供应过剩疑虑升高,IEA指全球石油供应过剩扩大,油价周五走低、布兰特与WTI本周可望连二周收跌。
布兰特报95.77美元、WTI报88.57美元;两大基准本周预计各跌约2%,前一周曾重挫16%与13%。
美国需求转软、EIA称原油与燃料库存增加;中东航线风险未除,荷姆兹海峡与沙乌地设施仍有攻击疑虑。",
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