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〈分析〉黄仁勋走人韩厂反看机会 HBM议价力或升 韩企研拟Plan B

2026-11-14 08:57:40 网络 阅读(1)

辉达(NVDA-US)执行长黄仁勋12日闪电辞职,由财务长克雷斯出任临时执行长。《韩国先驱报》与《亚洲商务日报》访问韩国产业人士与分析师后发现,当地晶片业正重新盘点手中的筹码。

〈分析〉黄仁勋走人韩厂反看机会 HBM议价力或升 韩企研拟Plan B

《韩国先驱报》报导,黄仁勋的离开可能反而增强韩国记忆体厂在未来供应谈判中的地位。韩国半导体产业协会执行副会长Ahn Ki-hyun直言:「对我们来说可能反而更好。如果有另一家公司填补辉达留下的缺口,它还是需要我们的HBM。」

Ahn Ki-hyun认为,黄仁勋与韩国企业领袖的私人关系,不如辉达对少数记忆体供应商的依赖来得关键。「要更换供应商,辉达需要替代选项,但替代选项在哪里?」他说,与其把供应集中在单一客户身上,分散到数家客户对韩厂可能更有利。目前全球HBM主要由SK海力士(000660KS)、三星电子(005930KS)与美光三家生产。

需求结构的数据也支持分散趋势。LS证券估计,辉达占全球HBM需求的比重将从2025年的66%降至2026年的57%;摩根士丹利预估,2027年辉达占比将进一步降至37.3%,Google则达到36%。

研究机构SemiAnalysis创办人Dylan Patel指出,黄仁勋亲自锁定了韩国的记忆体产能与台湾的晶圆代工产能,「这种掌控是个人的」。SemiAnalysis估计,SK海力士2027年对辉达的HBM4报价为每Gb 3至3.3美元,低于对超微(AMD-US)、博通(AVGO-US)、亚马逊(AMZN-US)与Google(GOOGL-US)等其他大客户的3.7至4.1美元。

Patel认为双方存在一种「默契」:SK海力士给予辉达记忆体优先供货,辉达则优先供应GPU给SK集团的AI基础建设业务。SemiAnalysis预期,少了黄仁勋,这种优惠待遇可能弱化,并释出HBM产能给竞争对手。

《亚洲商务日报》则以「CEO热线断线」形容韩国企业的处境。韩国大企业与辉达的合作早已不限于晶片:现代汽车集团在自动驾驶与机器人、LG集团在AI与智慧工厂都与辉达结盟,如今都在评估新领导层下合作动能是否延续。

短期业务方面,韩国业界普遍认为影响有限。一家与辉达往来的企业主管表示,执行长更替不会改变Vera Rubin等次世代AI加速器的生产计划,也不会影响韩国半导体厂已签到2027、2028年的长期HBM4供应合约量。

但《亚洲商务日报》报导,韩企的「Plan B」已开始浮上台面,方向包括扩大与辉达竞争对手的合作、分散客户基础。报导同时点出一项风险:此案涉及对中国间谍的指控(尚未证实),韩国业界忧心美国国会若因此进一步收紧对中国的半导体设备出口管制,韩厂在中国工厂的设备出货可能受波及。

一家与辉达有业务往来的韩国企业主管向《韩国先驱报》透露,更令他担心的是新业务:黄仁勋亲自推动的AI工厂、物理AI与机器人专案,能否在没有他的情况下维持同样的推进速度。他预期现有合约会守住,但需要多年投资才能回收的项目,优先顺序可能在新执行长手下改变。

对于辉达领导层变动,三星电子与SK海力士均拒绝置评。

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          "id": 57,
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韩企忧AI工厂、物理AI等专案推进放缓,但已签HBM4合约短期影响有限",
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    "content": "<p>辉达(NVDA-US)执行长黄仁勋12日闪电辞职,由财务长克雷斯出任临时执行长。《韩国先驱报》与《亚洲商务日报》访问韩国产业人士与分析师后发现,当地晶片业正重新盘点手中的筹码。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6662363/l/a0ab491fc7226604c468ffb0972d2a84.jpg\" alt=\"〈分析〉黄仁勋走人韩厂反看机会 HBM议价力或升 韩企研拟Plan B\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>《韩国先驱报》报导,黄仁勋的离开可能反而增强韩国记忆体厂在未来供应谈判中的地位。韩国半导体产业协会执行副会长Ahn Ki-hyun直言:「对我们来说可能反而更好。如果有另一家公司填补辉达留下的缺口,它还是需要我们的HBM。」</p>\n\n<p>Ahn Ki-hyun认为,黄仁勋与韩国企业领袖的私人关系,不如辉达对少数记忆体供应商的依赖来得关键。「要更换供应商,辉达需要替代选项,但替代选项在哪里?」他说,与其把供应集中在单一客户身上,分散到数家客户对韩厂可能更有利。目前全球HBM主要由SK海力士(000660KS)、三星电子(005930KS)与美光三家生产。</p>\n\n<p>需求结构的数据也支持分散趋势。LS证券估计,辉达占全球HBM需求的比重将从2025年的66%降至2026年的57%;摩根士丹利预估,2027年辉达占比将进一步降至37.3%,Google则达到36%。</p>\n\n<p>研究机构SemiAnalysis创办人Dylan Patel指出,黄仁勋亲自锁定了韩国的记忆体产能与台湾的晶圆代工产能,「这种掌控是个人的」。SemiAnalysis估计,SK海力士2027年对辉达的HBM4报价为每Gb 3至3.3美元,低于对超微(AMD-US)、博通(AVGO-US)、亚马逊(AMZN-US)与Google(GOOGL-US)等其他大客户的3.7至4.1美元。</p>\n\n<p>Patel认为双方存在一种「默契」:SK海力士给予辉达记忆体优先供货,辉达则优先供应GPU给SK集团的AI基础建设业务。SemiAnalysis预期,少了黄仁勋,这种优惠待遇可能弱化,并释出HBM产能给竞争对手。</p>\n\n<p>《亚洲商务日报》则以「CEO热线断线」形容韩国企业的处境。韩国大企业与辉达的合作早已不限于晶片:现代汽车集团在自动驾驶与机器人、LG集团在AI与智慧工厂都与辉达结盟,如今都在评估新领导层下合作动能是否延续。</p>\n\n<p>短期业务方面,韩国业界普遍认为影响有限。一家与辉达往来的企业主管表示,执行长更替不会改变Vera Rubin等次世代AI加速器的生产计划,也不会影响韩国半导体厂已签到2027、2028年的长期HBM4供应合约量。</p>\n\n<p>但《亚洲商务日报》报导,韩企的「Plan B」已开始浮上台面,方向包括扩大与辉达竞争对手的合作、分散客户基础。报导同时点出一项风险:此案涉及对中国间谍的指控(尚未证实),韩国业界忧心美国国会若因此进一步收紧对中国的半导体设备出口管制,韩厂在中国工厂的设备出货可能受波及。</p>\n\n<p>一家与辉达有业务往来的韩国企业主管向《韩国先驱报》透露,更令他担心的是新业务:黄仁勋亲自推动的AI工厂、物理AI与机器人专案,能否在没有他的情况下维持同样的推进速度。他预期现有合约会守住,但需要多年投资才能回收的项目,优先顺序可能在新执行长手下改变。</p>\n\n<p>对于辉达领导层变动,三星电子与SK海力士均拒绝置评。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-21125.html\" title=\"陆DRAM产能将激增31%!韩媒警告超级周期「只剩2至3年」 马斯克把期限再往前推一年\">陆DRAM产能将激增31%!韩媒警告超级周期「只剩2至3年」 马斯克把期限再往前推一年</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-500.html\" title=\"ASML垄断地位正遇挑战!荷驻韩大使:各国正疯狂角逐下一代技术 全球光刻竞赛非针对中国\">ASML垄断地位正遇挑战!荷驻韩大使:各国正疯狂角逐下一代技术 全球光刻竞赛非针对中国</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-22264.html\" title=\"〈财报〉Alphabet营收获利双失色、预告明年AI支出大幅增加 盘后重摔逾10%\">〈财报〉Alphabet营收获利双失色、预告明年AI支出大幅增加 盘后重摔逾10%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-8511.html\" title=\"AI伺服器持续挤压供给!美银再上修DRAM涨价预期:Q3合约价恐涨30-40%\">AI伺服器持续挤压供给!美银再上修DRAM涨价预期:Q3合约价恐涨30-40%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-22177.html\" title=\"马来西亚查获1211万美元AI晶片走私!30台伺服器遭扣、至少5案涉同一集团\">马来西亚查获1211万美元AI晶片走私!30台伺服器遭扣、至少5案涉同一集团</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-9535.html\" title=\"中国国产玻璃基板突破!华为联合京东方、维信诺打通先进封装关键环节  2027年量产\">中国国产玻璃基板突破!华为联合京东方、维信诺打通先进封装关键环节  2027年量产</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-11-14T00:20:05.000Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-11-14T00:57:40.000Z"
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