AI「偏空」隐忧现！美银警告：基础建设成本恐推升利率、使美股承压

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AI「偏空」隐忧现！美银警告：基础建设成本恐推升利率、使美股承压

2026-09-27 04:19:04 网络阅读（52）
基于人工智慧（AI）能协助企业以更低成本提高产出、取代部分人力，进而降低薪资支出，AI长期被经济学家与央行官员视为有助抑制通膨的新技术。然而，专家指出，这一切的发生可能还要「再等等」。
AI「偏空」隐忧现！美银警告：基础建设成本恐推升利率、使美股承压
《Business Insider》报导指出，AI抑制通膨这项「长期利多」可能尚未到来。与此同时，AI基础建设快速扩张所带来的成本，反而已开始对物价形成上行压力。
美国7月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告于上周三（12日）公布后，相关迹象更加明显。数据显示，电脑价格单月上涨3.5%，软体价格过去一年则大涨约40%。
美国银行(BAC-US) 近日指出，再加上资料中心争相取得电力所推升的能源成本，以及企业将AI导入成本转嫁给消费者，AI开始呈现出推升通膨的特征。
美银经济学家Stephen Juneau表示，AI不仅推高电子产品的投入成本，也正在带来正向的财富效应，进而支撑消费需求。
他指出：「联准会（Fed）主席华许（Kevin Warsh）一直强调的AI降通膨效应，恐怕还得再等一段时间。」
分析指出，这对股市来说，从两方面都令人担忧，包括短期与长期利率。
就殖利率曲线短端而言，AI推升通膨将使利率政策更加复杂。通膨越高，联准会面临的升息压力就越大，可能进一步提高隔夜拆款利率。
报导指出，这将对经济活动形成抑制，并可能拖慢企业获利成长，而企业获利正是支撑股市的重要因素。
Sevens Report Research创办人Tom Essaye表示，AI基础建设扩张不太可能造成一轮持续性的高通膨，但确实提高联准会在9月会议上一次性升息的可能性。
另一方面，通膨升温也可能推高长期债券殖利率。当投资人预期通膨将侵蚀资产实质价值，通常会要求更高的报酬率。
目前，美国10年期国债殖利率已升至4.64%，高于今年初的4.15%。
MRB Partners在一份给客户的报告中表示，尽管影响长期利率的因素很多，但高额的投资支出正协助推升债券殖利率。该机构预期，长期殖利率仍将进一步走高，可能对股市造成不利影响。
MRB Partners全球策略合伙人Philip Colmar在报告中表示：「我们对美国国债的看空展望，最终将对美股构成问题。」
他进一步指出，自2020年以来，每当10年期美债殖利率出现明显向上突破时，「股市都曾出现剧烈修正。」
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        },
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          "id": 28,
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      "id": 25,
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