Fed麻烦来了！美国8月服务业加速扩张价格指标升至4年新高

美国服务业8月扩张速度加快，强劲需求带动新订单大幅增加，民间经济活动也升至逾4年高点，显示第三季经济成长动能回升。不过，服务业投入成本升至4年来最高，加上就业指标持续萎缩，呈现经济强韧、通膨压力与招募疲弱并存的复杂局面。

美国供应管理协会(ISM)周四(3日)公布，8月非制造业指数由7月的54.1升至55.4，创2月以来最高，也高于《路透》调查预估的54.2。指数高于50代表占美国经济活动逾三分之二的服务业处于扩张。

8月非制造业指数由7月的54.1升至55.4，创2月以来最高。(图：ZeroHedge)

其中，新订单指数由57.2跃升至60.9，创2023年2月以来最高；商业活动指标则写下2022年以来最强表现，未完成订单连续第7个月增加。包括矿业、房地产、住宿及餐饮服务等12个产业呈现成长，另有5个产业萎缩。

美国8月ISM非制造业指数细项：(50 为荣枯线)

商业活动生产指数报61.7，前值59.1
新订单指数报60.9，前值57.2
雇佣指数报47.8，前值47.4
供应商交货指数报51.3，前值52.8
存货指数报56.7，前值51.4
价格指数报72.6，前值70.3
未完成订单指数报55.6，前值50.9
新出口订单指数报56.3，前值52.0
进口指数报56.3，前值51.8
库存景气指数报54.1，前值52.5

服务业带动第三季经济加速

另一份调查同样显示美国经济动能回升。标普全球(S&P Global)8月服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)由54.6升至56.5，创2024年12月以来最高；综合PMI则由54.5升至56，写下52个月新高。服务业成长加速，制造业则维持较温和扩张。

标普全球市场财智经济学家Usamah Bhatti表示，美国民间部门8月活动明显换档加速，调查结果显示，第三季国内生产毛额(GDP)季增年率可能达3%，较第二季的1.5%显著提高，表现也领先其他主要经济体。

服务业受到消费支出稳健、劳动市场相对稳定及企业投资健康支撑，AI投资热潮也推升国内需求。不过，企业仍须因应关税、供应链阻塞及中东战争造成的成本压力。

产业回复显示，记忆体短缺持续恶化，相关设备库存偏低、价格高涨；营建业则表示，30年期房贷利率升至6.67%，削弱购屋负担能力，促使潜在买家重新退场。餐旅业者也指出，关税与中东冲突持续推升供应商及企业本身的投入成本。

价格指标飙高就业却持续萎缩

ISM服务业投入价格指数由7月的70.3升至72.6，创2022年中以来最高。石油产品、柴油与汽油价格8月再度上涨，绘图处理器(GPU)及钢铁也被列入供应短缺品项，显示通膨可能在一段时间内持续高于联准会(Fed)的2%目标。

供应商交货指数由52.8降至51.3，仍高于代表交货速度放缓的50，但已降至近一年最低，显示部分供应瓶颈可能逐步缓解。不过，供应商交货速度已连续21个月偏慢，仍对投入价格构成压力。

尽管订单激增，ISM就业指数仅47.8，连续6个月中有5个月处于萎缩。经济学家认为，政策不确定性让企业不愿增加人力，也使周五(4日)公布的8月非农就业报告面临下行风险。

值得注意的是，标普全球调查显示8月民间部门招募加速，与ISM服务业就业指标呈现分歧。服务业活动与价格同步走强，可能强化Fed的通膨疑虑；但就业疲弱以及Fed理事华勒(Christopher Waller)倾向9月按兵不动的言论，也让本月是否升息仍充满变数。

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null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "美国服务业8月扩张速度加快，强劲需求带动新订单大幅增加，民间经济活动也升至逾4年高点，显示第三季经济成长动能回升。不过，服务业投入成本升至4年来最高，加上就业指标持续萎缩，呈现经济强韧、通膨压力与招募疲弱并存的复杂局面。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/l/d1074303d551123f032f160f99977699.jpg", "content": "<p>美国服务业8月扩张速度加快，强劲需求带动新订单大幅增加，民间经济活动也升至逾4年高点，显示第三季经济成长动能回升。不过，服务业投入成本升至4年来最高，加上就业指标持续萎缩，呈现经济强韧、通膨压力与招募疲弱并存的复杂局面。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/l/d1074303d551123f032f160f99977699.jpg\" alt=\"Fed麻烦来了！美国8月服务业加速扩张价格指标升至4年新高\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>美国供应管理协会(ISM)周四(3日)公布，8月非制造业指数由7月的54.1升至55.4，创2月以来最高，也高于《路透》调查预估的54.2。指数高于50代表占美国经济活动逾三分之二的服务业处于扩张。</p>\n\n<figure><img alt=\"(图：ZeroHedge)\" data-height=\"445\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.7078651685393258\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/m/eac6763493a3a90dd662309cab2d873a.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/l/eac6763493a3a90dd662309cab2d873a.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/l/eac6763493a3a90dd662309cab2d873a.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/xl/eac6763493a3a90dd662309cab2d873a.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/xl/eac6763493a3a90dd662309cab2d873a.jpg 3x\">\n<figcaption>8月非制造业指数由7月的54.1升至55.4，创2月以来最高。(图：ZeroHedge)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\n<p>其中，新订单指数由57.2跃升至60.9，创2023年2月以来最高；商业活动指标则写下2022年以来最强表现，未完成订单连续第7个月增加。包括矿业、房地产、住宿及餐饮服务等12个产业呈现成长，另有5个产业萎缩。</p>\n\n<h6>美国8月ISM非制造业指数细项：(50 为荣枯线)</h6>\n\n<ul>\n<li>商业活动生产指数报61.7，前值59.1</li>\n<li>新订单指数报60.9，前值57.2 </li>\n<li>雇佣指数报47.8，前值47.4</li>\n<li>供应商交货指数报51.3，前值52.8</li>\n<li>存货指数报56.7，前值51.4</li>\n<li>价格指数报72.6，前值70.3</li>\n<li>未完成订单指数报55.6，前值50.9</li>\n<li>新出口订单指数报56.3，前值52.0</li>\n<li>进口指数报56.3，前值51.8</li>\n<li>库存景气指数报54.1，前值52.5</li>\n</ul>\n\n<figure><img alt=\"图：ISM\" data-height=\"604\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.2582781456953642\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/m/da3f7c8271511112c2642bce6b43a0ff.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/l/da3f7c8271511112c2642bce6b43a0ff.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/l/da3f7c8271511112c2642bce6b43a0ff.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/xl/da3f7c8271511112c2642bce6b43a0ff.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/xl/da3f7c8271511112c2642bce6b43a0ff.jpg 3x\">\n<figcaption>图：ISM</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\n<h6>服务业带动第三季经济加速</h6>\n\n<p>另一份调查同样显示美国经济动能回升。标普全球(S&P Global)8月服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)由54.6升至56.5，创2024年12月以来最高；综合PMI则由54.5升至56，写下52个月新高。服务业成长加速，制造业则维持较温和扩张。</p>\n\n<p>标普全球市场财智经济学家Usamah Bhatti表示，美国民间部门8月活动明显换档加速，调查结果显示，第三季国内生产毛额(GDP)季增年率可能达3%，较第二季的1.5%显著提高，表现也领先其他主要经济体。</p>\n\n<p>服务业受到消费支出稳健、劳动市场相对稳定及企业投资健康支撑，AI投资热潮也推升国内需求。不过，企业仍须因应关税、供应链阻塞及中东战争造成的成本压力。</p>\n\n<p>产业回复显示，记忆体短缺持续恶化，相关设备库存偏低、价格高涨；营建业则表示，30年期房贷利率升至6.67%，削弱购屋负担能力，促使潜在买家重新退场。餐旅业者也指出，关税与中东冲突持续推升供应商及企业本身的投入成本。</p>\n\n<h6>价格指标飙高就业却持续萎缩</h6>\n\n<p>ISM服务业投入价格指数由7月的70.3升至72.6，创2022年中以来最高。石油产品、柴油与汽油价格8月再度上涨，绘图处理器(GPU)及钢铁也被列入供应短缺品项，显示通膨可能在一段时间内持续高于联准会(Fed)的2%目标。</p>\n\n<figure><img alt=\"(图：ZeroHedge)\" data-height=\"448\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.6964285714285714\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/m/5927f1d8e45d20bc7527f252e73449d0.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/l/5927f1d8e45d20bc7527f252e73449d0.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/l/5927f1d8e45d20bc7527f252e73449d0.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/xl/5927f1d8e45d20bc7527f252e73449d0.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596628/xl/5927f1d8e45d20bc7527f252e73449d0.jpg 3x\">\n<figcaption>ISM服务业投入价格指数由7月的70.3升至72.6，创2022年中以来最高。(图：ZeroHedge)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\n<p>供应商交货指数由52.8降至51.3，仍高于代表交货速度放缓的50，但已降至近一年最低，显示部分供应瓶颈可能逐步缓解。不过，供应商交货速度已连续21个月偏慢，仍对投入价格构成压力。</p>\n\n<p>尽管订单激增，ISM就业指数仅47.8，连续6个月中有5个月处于萎缩。经济学家认为，政策不确定性让企业不愿增加人力，也使周五(4日)公布的8月非农就业报告面临下行风险。</p>\n\n<p>值得注意的是，标普全球调查显示8月民间部门招募加速，与ISM服务业就业指标呈现分歧。服务业活动与价格同步走强，可能强化Fed的通膨疑虑；但就业疲弱以及Fed理事华勒(Christopher Waller)倾向9月按兵不动的言论，也让本月是否升息仍充满变数。</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-10456.html\" title=\"iPhone Ultra配色曝光！首款折叠iPhone传有「两颜色」、相机设计也外泄\">iPhone Ultra配色曝光！首款折叠iPhone传有「两颜色」、相机设计也外泄</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6033.html\" title=\"担心美股AI曝险太高？海外市场其实更严重\">担心美股AI曝险太高？海外市场其实更严重</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-7010.html\" title=\"〈美股早盘〉台积电财报利多失灵！晶片股续挫拖累主要指数开低\">〈美股早盘〉台积电财报利多失灵！晶片股续挫拖累主要指数开低</a></li>\n <li><a 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美国8月ISM非制造业指数细项：(50 为荣枯线)

服务业带动第三季经济加速

价格指标飙高就业却持续萎缩

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