iPhone 18 Pro卖不动？美英德日等待时间缩短中港反而拉长

苹果(AAPL-US) iPhone 18 Pro 系列预售浮现警讯。杰富瑞（Jefferies）追踪显示，美英德日交货等待时间较去年缩短 5 至 11 天，美国 iPhone 18 Pro 甚至无需等待，显示需求可能转弱。

中国与香港则逆势升温，但杰富瑞认为，投机性抢购可能干扰实际需求，仍待首批新机出货后进一步验证。

根据杰富瑞周一(14 日)发布的报告，苹果自12 日美东时间上午 8 时开放预购后，团队持续追踪美国、英国、德国、日本、中国及香港六大市场的交货等待时间，今年并新增印度市场，但年增比较仍以原有六大市场为基准。

美英德日等待时间缩短需求浮现警讯

截至14 日美东时间中午，iPhone 18 Pro Max 在美国、英国、德国、日本的交货等待时间，较去年同期 iPhone 17 Pro Max 缩短约 5 至 11 天。iPhone 18 Pro 的情况也类似，美国市场目前已无需等待，其他多数海外市场的等待时间也较去年缩短约 1 至 11 天。

杰富瑞认为，在今年生产节奏与上一代基本持平的情况下，交货周期缩短可视为需求转弱的可靠讯号。

去年 iPhone 17 Pro Max 与 iPhone 17 Pro 的等待时间明显长于 iPhone 16 系列，后续也证明是销售强劲的前瞻指标，如今 iPhone 18 Pro 系列的数据出现逆转，使分析师对后续销售前景转趋审慎。

印度市场方面，iPhone 18 Pro 目前等待时间仅约 2 至 3 天，iPhone 18 Pro Max 约 12 天，两款机型交货周期都明显短于中国市场，目前仍难以将此解读为需求强劲。

中港逆势升温真实需求仍待观察

中国与香港成为这波预售追踪中的例外。数据显示，iPhone 18 Pro Max 在中国与香港的等待时间均达 24.5 天，高于去年同期的 19.8 天与 17.2 天，分别较去年延长约 4 天及 7 天，与其他主要市场等待时间缩短形成鲜明对比。

不过，杰富瑞对中港市场的强劲数据仍持保留态度。报告指出，两地过去新款 iPhone 上市初期都有较活跃的投机性抢购行为，因此等待时间拉长，部分可能来自通路囤货，而非终端消费者的真实需求。

分析师认为，18 日首批新机开始出货后，二手市场的转售价格将成为判断实际需求的重要指标。如果转售溢价快速缩小，甚至跌破发行价，可能意味着初期投机需求释放后迅速消退。

Duo软体体验获肯定硬体规格面临考验

除了 iPhone 18 Pro 系列预售表现，杰富瑞也关注苹果折叠萤幕新机 Duo。

Duo 预计 10 月 16 日开放预购，目前网路流出的初步评测整体偏正面，但好评主要集中在软体体验，包括 iOS 对折叠萤幕的适配、内外萤幕切换流畅度、原生分割画面逻辑、应用程式连续性，以及双应用多工处理等。

相较之下，Duo 的硬体规格则面临较多质疑。批评意见包括浮动视窗数量有限，多工处理同时最多只能运行两个应用程式，而三星 Galaxy Z Fold 8 可支援三个，Duo 同时也缺乏类 PC 功能。

杰富瑞整理的规格比较显示，Duo 起售价为 1,999 美元，重量 254 克，折叠状态厚度 11.3 毫米；相较之下，三星 Galaxy Z Fold 8 重量 201 克、折叠厚度 9.7 毫米，起售价 1,899 美元。

这也意味着，Duo 在价格更高的情况下，机身重量与厚度并未占优势。

相机同样是市场关注焦点。Duo 配备 4,800 万画素主镜头与 4,800 万画素超广角镜头，没有专属长焦镜头；部分安卓折叠萤幕旗舰则已提供三镜头系统与光学变焦功能。处理器方面，Duo 采用苹果自研 A20 Pro，使用 2 奈米制程。

逾2000美元价位硬体差距更受关注

杰富瑞分析师指出，苹果过去并非单纯依靠硬体规格取得市场份额，软硬体整合与使用体验一直是其产品竞争力之一。

然而，在接近 2,000 美元的高价位带，硬体规格可能成为既有 iPhone 用户是否愿意升级至 Duo 的重要考量，也可能增加苹果说服高阶安卓折叠萤幕手机用户转换阵营的难度。

因此，尽管 Duo 初步软体体验获得正面评价，杰富瑞对这款折叠萤幕新机的整体判断自发布以来并未改变。

在 iPhone 18 Pro 预售等待时间缩短、中港市场需求仍待验证，以及 Duo 高价策略面临硬体规格竞争等因素下，杰富瑞维持苹果股票「跑输大盘」（Underperform）评级，12 个月目标价为 263.66 美元。相较目前股价 332.27 美元，目标价隐含约 21% 下跌空间。

该目标价以截至 2031 财年的现金流折现模型估算，加权平均资本成本为 7.8%，永续成长率为 4.3%，并相当于苹果 2026 财年预估本益比约 30 倍。

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auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n中国与香港则逆势升温，但杰富瑞认为，投机性抢购可能干扰实际需求，仍待首批新机出货后进一步验证。\n\n根据杰富瑞周一(14 日)发布的报告，苹果自12 日美东时间上午 8 时开放预购后，团队持续追踪美国、英国、德国、日本、中国及香港六大市场的交货等待时间，今年并新增印度市场，但年增比较仍以原有六大市场为基准。\n\n美英德日等待时间缩短需求浮现警讯\n\n截至14 日美东时间中午，iPhone 18 Pro Max 在美国、英国、德国、日本的交货等待时间，较去年同期 iPhone 17 Pro Max 缩短约 5 至 11 天。iPhone 18 Pro 的情况也类似，美国市场目前已无需等待，其他多数海外市场的等待时间也较去年缩短约 1 至 11 天。\n\n杰富瑞认为，在今年生产节奏与上一代基本持平的情况下，交货周期缩短可视为需求转弱的可靠讯号。\n\n去年 iPhone 17 Pro Max 与 iPhone 17 Pro 的等待时间明显长于 iPhone 16 系列，后续也证明是销售强劲的前瞻指标，如今 iPhone 18 Pro 系列的数据出现逆转，使分析师对后续销售前景转趋审慎。\n\n印度市场方面，iPhone 18 Pro 目前等待时间仅约 2 至 3 天，iPhone 18 Pro Max 约 12 天，两款机型交货周期都明显短于中国市场，目前仍难以将此解读为需求强劲。\n\n中港逆势升温真实需求仍待观察\n\n中国与香港成为这波预售追踪中的例外。数据显示，iPhone 18 Pro Max 在中国与香港的等待时间均达 24.5 天，高于去年同期的 19.8 天与 17.2 天，分别较去年延长约 4 天及 7 天，与其他主要市场等待时间缩短形成鲜明对比。\n\n不过，杰富瑞对中港市场的强劲数据仍持保留态度。报告指出，两地过去新款 iPhone 上市初期都有较活跃的投机性抢购行为，因此等待时间拉长，部分可能来自通路囤货，而非终端消费者的真实需求。\n\n分析师认为，18 日首批新机开始出货后，二手市场的转售价格将成为判断实际需求的重要指标。如果转售溢价快速缩小，甚至跌破发行价，可能意味着初期投机需求释放后迅速消退。\n\nDuo软体体验获肯定硬体规格面临考验\n\n除了 iPhone 18 Pro 系列预售表现，杰富瑞也关注苹果折叠萤幕新机 Duo。\n\nDuo 预计 10 月 16 日开放预购，目前网路流出的初步评测整体偏正面，但好评主要集中在软体体验，包括 iOS 对折叠萤幕的适配、内外萤幕切换流畅度、原生分割画面逻辑、应用程式连续性，以及双应用多工处理等。\n\n相较之下，Duo 的硬体规格则面临较多质疑。批评意见包括浮动视窗数量有限，多工处理同时最多只能运行两个应用程式，而三星 Galaxy Z Fold 8 可支援三个，Duo 同时也缺乏类 PC 功能。\n\n杰富瑞整理的规格比较显示，Duo 起售价为 1,999 美元，重量 254 克，折叠状态厚度 11.3 毫米；相较之下，三星 Galaxy Z Fold 8 重量 201 克、折叠厚度 9.7 毫米，起售价 1,899 美元。\n\n这也意味着，Duo 在价格更高的情况下，机身重量与厚度并未占优势。\n\n相机同样是市场关注焦点。Duo 配备 4,800 万画素主镜头与 4,800 万画素超广角镜头，没有专属长焦镜头；部分安卓折叠萤幕旗舰则已提供三镜头系统与光学变焦功能。处理器方面，Duo 采用苹果自研 A20 Pro，使用 2 奈米制程。\n\n逾2000美元价位硬体差距更受关注\n\n杰富瑞分析师指出，苹果过去并非单纯依靠硬体规格取得市场份额，软硬体整合与使用体验一直是其产品竞争力之一。\n\n然而，在接近 2,000 美元的高价位带，硬体规格可能成为既有 iPhone 用户是否愿意升级至 Duo 的重要考量，也可能增加苹果说服高阶安卓折叠萤幕手机用户转换阵营的难度。\n\n因此，尽管 Duo 初步软体体验获得正面评价，杰富瑞对这款折叠萤幕新机的整体判断自发布以来并未改变。\n\n在 iPhone 18 Pro 预售等待时间缩短、中港市场需求仍待验证，以及 Duo 高价策略面临硬体规格竞争等因素下，杰富瑞维持苹果股票「跑输大盘」（Underperform）评级，12 个月目标价为 263.66 美元。相较目前股价 332.27 美元，目标价隐含约 21% 下跌空间。\n\n该目标价以截至 2031 财年的现金流折现模型估算，加权平均资本成本为 7.8%，永续成长率为 4.3%，并相当于苹果 2026 财年预估本益比约 30 倍。\n<div 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