〈纽约汇市〉美元徘徊近8周高点 Fed官员强调通膨风险

美元周二(22日)上涨，延续上周联准会(Fed)升息带来的提振。欧元则在疲软的消费者信心数据公布后走低。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.1%，报100.54，创7月29日以来最高。

联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)上周三一致投票决定，将联邦资金利率从3.50%-3.75%上调至3.75%-4.00%。此外，联准会更新的经济预测摘要显示，至少有12名FOMC成员预期今年还会再升息一次，而联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)在决策后记者会上也明显释出鹰派讯号。

较高的利率环境通常有利于美元走强。自联准会升息以来，美元已上涨近1%。

波士顿联准银行总裁柯林斯(Susan Collins)周二再次表示支持FOMC 的决定。她在社群媒体贴文中强调，偏高的价格压力要求采取更具限制性的政策立场，以实现长期物价稳定。

她表示，近期经济指标显示，在成本持续偏高超过五年后，未来出现「通膨明显高于2%」情境的可能性有所增加。

另外，里奇蒙联准银行总裁巴金(Tom Barkin)也支持FOMC的升息决定，并表示，目前通膨风险高于充分就业所面临的风险。

油价成为市场焦点

本月一大主题，就是因能源推动的价格压力而进行的央行升息，欧洲央行(ECB)与日本银行(BoJ)也都在收紧货币政策。在此背景下，近期油价持续下跌，已引起外汇市场参与者关注。

原油基准价格已连续五个交易日下跌，原因包括市场对供应中断的担忧有所缓解，以及对中东外交取得进展的期待。交易员对沙乌地阿拉伯采取果断措施感到振奋，以抵消一条重要管线关闭所造成的影响，该管线是在与伊朗支持的叶门武装组织「青年运动」(Houthis)冲突扩大期间受损。

美国总统川普本周在联合国大会期间，可能与伊朗代表团，包括外交部长及总统会面的可能性，也改善了市场情绪。川普周二在联合国发表演讲时表示，他认为华府与德黑兰之间的协议将在即将于11月举行的美国期中选举后达成。

Macquarie全球外汇与利率策略师Thierry Wizman表示，「本周发生的事情可能成为决定原油价格中期走向的关键。因为美伊战争的关键参与者将从今天开始在纽约举行会谈。而这些会谈所达成的协议与共识，可能决定战争是否持续并升级，或是否能找到退出冲突的途径。」

他指出，「原油价格的走向仍会影响全球通膨，以及各国央行对此所采取的决策。我们已看到每家主要央行(包括美国联准会)都提到能源价格或『地缘政治』是未来决策的一项驱动因素。这也是近期『鹰派』言论背后的关键原因。」

Wizman补充，「我们仍将较高的油价与美元兑主要货币走强联系在一起。这并不是因为高油价会导致联准会升息，如果油价进一步上涨，所有央行都会转鹰。原因在于，美国经济成长与美元会透过贸易条件改善及实质所得效应，从高油价中受益。我们认为，美伊战争透过让原油价格维持高档，已成为今年支撑美元强势的重要因素。」

欧元走弱日元小幅走低

欧元兑美元下跌0.2%，至1.1448 美元。稍早公布数据显示，欧元区9月消费者信心较8月转弱，此前已连续四个月回升。

另一方面，日本银行上周升息后，日元一度加速贬值，如今跌势暂歇，汇价变化不大。美元兑日元略高于持平水准，报157.38。

由于日本正在放连续假期，亚洲交易部门成交量偏低。外汇配置机构警告，这种季节性交易低迷可能大幅放大市场波动，以及央行行动所带来的影响。

《日本经济新闻》报导，日银已与外汇交易部门进行正式的「汇率询价」，引发市场焦虑升温。此程序是指央行官员致电商业银行，询问即时可执行的汇率报价。

尽管日元在日银非一致决议升息25个基点后持续走弱，使借贷成本升至31年高点，但市场策略师指出，东京拥有庞大的政策火力。日本持有估计约1兆美元的外汇存底，为当局提供充足的流动性。

截至台湾时间周三 (23 日) 约 6:00 价格:

美元指数报 100.5411。+0.0002%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1447美元。-0.0087%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3341美元。-0.0150%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.7116美元。+0.0281%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4065加币。+0.0071%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑157.3900日元。0.0000%

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"source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "美元指数涨0.1%至100.54，创7月29日来新高，延续Fed上周升息带动
Fed上周升息至3.75%-4.00%，至少12名FOMC成员预期今年还会再升息一次
欧元区9月消费者信心转弱，欧元跌0.2%至1.1448美元；日元持平于157.38", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6613309/l/cd6cffc7a02e655df4d9d1f123d9906a.jpg", "content": "美元周二(22日)上涨，延续上周联准会(Fed)升息带来的提振。欧元则在疲软的消费者信心数据公布后走低。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6613309/l/cd6cffc7a02e655df4d9d1f123d9906a.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元徘徊近8周高点 Fed官员强调通膨风险\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.1%，报100.54，创7月29日以来最高。\n\n联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)上周三一致投票决定，将联邦资金利率从3.50%-3.75%上调至3.75%-4.00%。此外，联准会更新的经济预测摘要显示，至少有12名FOMC成员预期今年还会再升息一次，而联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)在决策后记者会上也明显释出鹰派讯号。\n\n较高的利率环境通常有利于美元走强。自联准会升息以来，美元已上涨近1%。\n\n波士顿联准银行总裁柯林斯(Susan Collins)周二再次表示支持FOMC 的决定。她在社群媒体贴文中强调，偏高的价格压力要求采取更具限制性的政策立场，以实现长期物价稳定。\n\n她表示，近期经济指标显示，在成本持续偏高超过五年后，未来出现「通膨明显高于2%」情境的可能性有所增加。\n\n另外，里奇蒙联准银行总裁巴金(Tom Barkin)也支持FOMC的升息决定，并表示，目前通膨风险高于充分就业所面临的风险。\n\n油价成为市场焦点\n\n本月一大主题，就是因能源推动的价格压力而进行的央行升息，欧洲央行(ECB)与日本银行(BoJ)也都在收紧货币政策。在此背景下，近期油价持续下跌，已引起外汇市场参与者关注。\n\n原油基准价格已连续五个交易日下跌，原因包括市场对供应中断的担忧有所缓解，以及对中东外交取得进展的期待。交易员对沙乌地阿拉伯采取果断措施感到振奋，以抵消一条重要管线关闭所造成的影响，该管线是在与伊朗支持的叶门武装组织「青年运动」(Houthis)冲突扩大期间受损。\n\n美国总统川普本周在联合国大会期间，可能与伊朗代表团，包括外交部长及总统会面的可能性，也改善了市场情绪。川普周二在联合国发表演讲时表示，他认为华府与德黑兰之间的协议将在即将于11月举行的美国期中选举后达成。\n\nMacquarie全球外汇与利率策略师Thierry Wizman表示，「本周发生的事情可能成为决定原油价格中期走向的关键。因为美伊战争的关键参与者将从今天开始在纽约举行会谈。而这些会谈所达成的协议与共识，可能决定战争是否持续并升级，或是否能找到退出冲突的途径。」\n\n他指出，「原油价格的走向仍会影响全球通膨，以及各国央行对此所采取的决策。我们已看到每家主要央行(包括美国联准会)都提到能源价格或『地缘政治』是未来决策的一项驱动因素。这也是近期『鹰派』言论背后的关键原因。」\n\nWizman补充，「我们仍将较高的油价与美元兑主要货币走强联系在一起。这并不是因为高油价会导致联准会升息，如果油价进一步上涨，所有央行都会转鹰。原因在于，美国经济成长与美元会透过贸易条件改善及实质所得效应，从高油价中受益。我们认为，美伊战争透过让原油价格维持高档，已成为今年支撑美元强势的重要因素。」\n\n欧元走弱日元小幅走低\n\n欧元兑美元下跌0.2%，至1.1448 美元。稍早公布数据显示，欧元区9月消费者信心较8月转弱，此前已连续四个月回升。\n\n另一方面，日本银行上周升息后，日元一度加速贬值，如今跌势暂歇，汇价变化不大。美元兑日元略高于持平水准，报157.38。\n\n由于日本正在放连续假期，亚洲交易部门成交量偏低。外汇配置机构警告，这种季节性交易低迷可能大幅放大市场波动，以及央行行动所带来的影响。\n\n《日本经济新闻》报导，日银已与外汇交易部门进行正式的「汇率询价」，引发市场焦虑升温。此程序是指央行官员致电商业银行，询问即时可执行的汇率报价。\n\n尽管日元在日银非一致决议升息25个基点后持续走弱，使借贷成本升至31年高点，但市场策略师指出，东京拥有庞大的政策火力。日本持有估计约1兆美元的外汇存底，为当局提供充足的流动性。\n\n截至台湾时间周三 (23 日) 约 6:00 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 100.5411。+0.0002%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1447美元。-0.0087%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3341美元。-0.0150%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.7116美元。+0.0281%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4065<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。+0.0071%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑157.3900<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。0.0000%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12738.html\" title=\"因伊朗局势推高各项成本美国农业面临数十年最严重危机\">因伊朗局势推高各项成本美国农业面临数十年最严重危机</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11648.html\" title=\"辉达又砸钱养AI需求！15亿美元入股SB Energy\">辉达又砸钱养AI需求！15亿美元入股SB Energy</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-16826.html\" title=\"AI股领涨！AMD市值突破兆美元、那斯达克劲扬1.9%，英特尔劲扬13.5%\">AI股领涨！AMD市值突破兆美元、那斯达克劲扬1.9%，英特尔劲扬13.5%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-760.html\" title=\"分析师：2026年美股利润成长集中在9档核心科技股\">分析师：2026年美股利润成长集中在9档核心科技股</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-16569.html\" 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