美债殖利率飙升股市感受压力前企业信用市场恐先出现裂痕

华尔街原本希望上周的债市暴跌已经是最糟糕的情况，但周一(28日)的市场表现显示情况可能并非如此，美国公债殖利率续升至多年高点。这不只打压股市，也影响美国消费者与企业在房贷、汽车贷款及信用卡债务等各种借贷上的成本。

10年期美债殖利率周一周一盘中一度升至5.27%，收盘报5.241%，创2007年6月以来新高，30年期殖利率也上升6个基点至5.561%，创24年新高。两者均已连续五个交易日走升。

经历艰难的上周后，美国债市周一并未摆脱「不妙的9月」，公债市场可能创下多年来最差的单月表现：9月以来，10年期殖利率已上升近48个基点，30年期殖利率则上升31个基点。

油价与升息预期双重力量推升殖利率

美债殖利率最新一波升势，主因是周末有报导指出川普拒绝伊朗提出的停火方案，并预料在美国11月期中选举后再次轰炸伊朗，这使油价应声上涨，进一步巩固通膨升温和升息预期。

能源价格上涨，促使长天期债券持有人要求更高殖利率，以补偿额外的不确定性，在此同时，市场预期联准会(Fed)将进一步升息，也对短天期债券构成压力。

根据芝商所(CME)FedWatch工具，联准基金期货交易员目前押注Fed 10月再升息1码(25个基点)的机率接近75%，12月再升息的机率则为60%。

近期殖利率上升是多重因素共同发挥作用的结果，除了油价、通膨和升息预期以外，美国政府和人工智慧(AI)企业大量发债也是助长力量。此外，由于AI建设让美国经济强劲成长，投资人对债券的需求有所下滑。

小型股与殖利率敏感类股首当其冲

近期殖利率上升对小型股打击尤其严重，其他对殖利率特别敏感的股市领域，如公用事业及营建商，也受到冲击。即使是被视为不确定性时期经典避险资产的黄金，在近期大涨后也开始走弱。

投资人已注意到，债市波动率不断升高，但股市相对平静，两者之间出现明显背离。

Clark Capital Management Group固定收益主管Oliver Chambers接受MarketWatch电话访问时表示：「我们应该开始看到股市对此做出反应。每当殖利率跳升50个基点，就应该开始对股市形成压力。目前两者的反应并不完全一致。」

企业信用市场恐先感受到压力

然而，在股市真正感受到压力之前，企业信用市场的债券可能已因大量发债而面临压力。

根据Glenmede汇整的数据，2026年美国公债与企业债券发行量预估将达到接近8兆美元的纪录高点。AI超大规模资料中心业者(hyperscalers)今年来已发行约2470亿美元债务，是2024年的12倍以上。

Glenmede投资策略与研究主管Jason Pride及投资策略副总裁Michael Reynolds说：「随着政府与企业寻求融资，市场正在吸收前所未有的发债量，加剧对稀缺资本的竞争。」

Glenmede策略师团队指出，尽管融资需求大幅增加，可用于满足这些需求的储蓄资金池成长速度却慢得多，因此金融资产供给成长速度已超过可供吸收这些资产的资本。因此投资人可能要求更高的报酬，以换取资金。

他们补充指出：「这种更高的必要报酬，可能转化为更低的资产价格，以及更高的未来预期报酬。」

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油价因川普拒绝伊朗停火方案报导而上涨，FedWatch显示10月再升1码机率近75%。
2026年美债与企业债发行量恐近8兆美元。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6617455/l/a908bb1e53797aa7cce270ccb114779e.jpg", "content": "<p>华尔街原本希望上周的债市暴跌已经是最糟糕的情况，但周一(28日)的市场表现显示情况可能并非如此，美国公债殖利率续升至多年高点。这不只打压股市，也影响美国消费者与企业在房贷、汽车贷款及信用卡债务等各种借贷上的成本。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6617455/l/a908bb1e53797aa7cce270ccb114779e.jpg\" alt=\"美债殖利率飙升股市感受压力前企业信用市场恐先出现裂痕\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>10年期美债殖利率周一周一盘中一度升至5.27%，收盘报5.241%，创2007年6月以来新高，30年期殖利率也上升6个基点至5.561%，创24年新高。两者均已连续五个交易日走升。</p>\n\n<p>经历艰难的上周后，美国债市周一并未摆脱「不妙的9月」，公债市场可能创下多年来最差的单月表现：9月以来，10年期殖利率已上升近48个基点，30年期殖利率则上升31个基点。</p>\n\n<h6>油价与升息预期双重力量推升殖利率</h6>\n\n<p>美债殖利率最新一波升势，主因是周末有报导指出川普拒绝伊朗提出的停火方案，并预料在美国11月期中选举后再次轰炸伊朗，这使油价应声上涨，进一步巩固通膨升温和升息预期。</p>\n\n<p>能源价格上涨，促使长天期债券持有人要求更高殖利率，以补偿额外的不确定性，在此同时，市场预期联准会(Fed)将进一步升息，也对短天期债券构成压力。</p>\n\n<p>根据芝商所(CME)FedWatch工具，联准基金期货交易员目前押注Fed 10月再升息1码(25个基点)的机率接近75%，12月再升息的机率则为60%。</p>\n\n<p>近期殖利率上升是多重因素共同发挥作用的结果，除了油价、通膨和升息预期以外，美国政府和人工智慧(AI)企业大量发债也是助长力量。此外，由于AI建设让美国经济强劲成长，投资人对债券的需求有所下滑。</p>\n\n<h6>小型股与殖利率敏感类股首当其冲</h6>\n\n<p>近期殖利率上升对小型股打击尤其严重，其他对殖利率特别敏感的股市领域，如公用事业及营建商，也受到冲击。即使是被视为不确定性时期经典避险资产的黄金，在近期大涨后也开始走弱。</p>\n\n<p>投资人已注意到，债市波动率不断升高，但股市相对平静，两者之间出现明显背离。</p>\n\n<p>Clark Capital Management Group固定收益主管Oliver Chambers接受MarketWatch电话访问时表示：「我们应该开始看到股市对此做出反应。每当殖利率跳升50个基点，就应该开始对股市形成压力。目前两者的反应并不完全一致。」</p>\n\n<h6>企业信用市场恐先感受到压力</h6>\n\n<p>然而，在股市真正感受到压力之前，企业信用市场的债券可能已因大量发债而面临压力。</p>\n\n<p>根据Glenmede汇整的数据，2026年美国公债与企业债券发行量预估将达到接近8兆美元的纪录高点。AI超大规模资料中心业者(hyperscalers)今年来已发行约2470亿美元债务，是2024年的12倍以上。</p>\n\n<p>Glenmede投资策略与研究主管Jason Pride及投资策略副总裁Michael Reynolds说：「随着政府与企业寻求融资，市场正在吸收前所未有的发债量，加剧对稀缺资本的竞争。」</p>\n\n<p>Glenmede策略师团队指出，尽管融资需求大幅增加，可用于满足这些需求的储蓄资金池成长速度却慢得多，因此金融资产供给成长速度已超过可供吸收这些资产的资本。因此投资人可能要求更高的报酬，以换取资金。</p>\n\n<p>他们补充指出：「这种更高的必要报酬，可能转化为更低的资产价格，以及更高的未来预期报酬。」</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15095.html\" title=\"英特尔2日狂飙逾10% 挑战52周高点！CPU喊涨10%、辉达入股掀AI新想像\">英特尔2日狂飙逾10% 挑战52周高点！CPU喊涨10%、辉达入股掀AI新想像</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-17523.html\" title=\"美银警告美股恐迎一波猛烈抛售！「两大讯号」值得警惕\">美银警告美股恐迎一波猛烈抛售！「两大讯号」值得警惕</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11838.html\" title=\"Jane Street 7月巨亏150亿美元暴露做市商与避险基金界线消失的风险\">Jane Street 7月巨亏150亿美元暴露做市商与避险基金界线消失的风险</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-8581.html\" title=\"中国晶片技术突破引爆卖压美光月挫30% 逼近11年最大单月跌幅\">中国晶片技术突破引爆卖压美光月挫30% 逼近11年最大单月跌幅</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13994.html\" title=\"华勒一句话救美债！Fed升息押注降温 2年期殖利率一度重挫7基点\">华勒一句话救美债！Fed升息押注降温 2年期殖利率一度重挫7基点</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-3790.html\" title=\"AI带动记忆体飙涨！苹果宣布多项产品涨价成本转嫁消费者\">AI带动记忆体飙涨！苹果宣布多项产品涨价成本转嫁消费者</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 2, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6617455", "createdAt": "2026-09-29T16:00:06.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-09-29T17:11:28.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 15, "pid": 0, "name": "热点新闻", "pinyin": "new", "path": "/new", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "children": [ { "id": 25, "pid": 15, "name": "美股", "pinyin": "mg", "path": "/new/mg", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 26, "pid": 15, "name": "港股", "pinyin": "hk", "path": "/new/hk", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 27, "pid": 15, "name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 28, "pid": 15, "name": "科技", "pinyin": "AI", "path": "/new/AI", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "level": 1 }, { "id": 25, "pid": 15, "name": "美股", "pinyin": "mg", "path": "/new/mg", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

油价与升息预期 双重力量推升殖利率

小型股与殖利率敏感类股首当其冲

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油价与升息预期双重力量推升殖利率