华许未释鹰派讯号 10月升息预期显著降温美股指反弹、金价回稳

2026-10-16 17:01:56 网络阅读（1）
美国联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)周五(16日)于国际货币基金(IMF)年会座谈中的谈话，并未提及货币政策或美国经济前景的明确预测，仅重申联准会将致力于实现物价稳定。他强调自己不会预先判断会议结果，并指出自 9 月会议以来，全球经济的总体表现大致符合联准会的预期。
华许的谨慎表态消除了投资人对其可能释放鹰派讯号的疑虑交易员随即显著下修 10 月会议的升息押注，升息机率由演说前的约 27% 至 33% 快速降至 15% 以下。
Monetary Policy Analytics经济学家Derek Tang指出，华许显然未提供任何可供市场解读为鹰派的依据。高盛经济学家团队分析，华许的言论连同其他联准会官员的表态，表明联准会准备在 10 月按兵不动，并预计可能在 12 月进行今年的最后一次升息。
升息预期的显著冷却，带动金融市场做出积极反应。标普 500 指数期货抹平跌势转为上涨，美元指数走低，债市殖利率也从高档回落。在黄金市场方面，因升息机率下滑减轻了持有无息黄金的利率阻力，黄金价格维持平稳，每盎司报价约在 4,175 美元附近。
从整体政策脉络来看，联准会于 9 月调升利率一码，为 2023 年以来的首次升息。华许提及，虽然 2 月爆发的美伊战争推升能源价格，加上人工智慧(AI)投资热潮带动短期需求而推升通膨，但全球经济展现出意料之外的韧性。
华许重申看好 AI 对全球经济的长期巨大裨益，但也警告 AI 需求端效应在短期内可能为通膨带来起伏波动，联准会将审慎评估其总体经济影响。
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