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"title": "川普版伊朗核协议恐不如欧巴马",
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"description": "《彭博》报导，美国总统川普 (Donald Trump) 正推动与伊朗达成新的核协议，但目前浮现的框架内容，恐怕无法比肩前总统欧巴马(Barack Obama) 政府于 2015 年签署的《联合全面行动计划》(JCPOA)，",
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"content": "<p>《彭博》报导，美国总统川普 (Donald Trump) 正推动与伊朗达成新的核协议，但目前浮现的框架内容，恐怕无法比肩前总统欧巴马(Barack Obama) 政府于 2015 年签署的《联合全面行动计划》(JCPOA)，甚至可能在部分关键限制上更加宽松。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6503836/l/f8ae7d646defb2c8c713998f38bb583d.jpg\" alt=\"川普版伊朗核协议恐不如欧巴马\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p><em><strong>高浓缩铀去向未明 成最大隐忧</strong></em></p>\n\n<p>根据美伊即将签署的 14 点谅解备忘录 (MoU)，双方将在未来 60 天内展开正式谈判。不过，文件仅提及伊朗接近武器级的浓缩铀库存必须获得「妥善处理」，却未明确说明如何处置足以制造多枚核武的高浓缩铀。</p>\n\n<p>外界认为，这项模糊措辞可能使新协议在防止伊朗取得核武方面，难以超越欧巴马政府时期的安排。</p>\n\n<p>川普本周在法国出席七大工业国集团 (G7) 峰会时，甚至将高浓缩铀形容为「核尘埃(nuclear dust)」，并表示：「从心理层面来看，我们希望取得它。」</p>\n\n<p><em><strong>伊朗可望获得庞大经济利益</strong></em></p>\n\n<p>相较于核限制内容尚未明朗，伊朗已在备忘录中获得多项重大经济利益。</p>\n\n<p>根据协议内容，美国同意解除所有对伊朗制裁，包括联合国安理会相关决议，同时解冻数十亿美元资产，并提供约 3,000 亿美元资金协助战后重建与经济发展。此外，伊朗也将重新恢复石油出口。</p>\n\n<p>这意味着，美国可能接受部分核问题仍存在灰色地带，以换取中东能源供应恢复及全球经济稳定。</p>\n\n<p><em><strong>欧巴马版协议设下更高门槛</strong></em></p>\n\n<p>2015 年签署的伊朗核协议 (JCPOA) 历经两年谈判，被视为目前最严格的限制框架之一。由伊朗与美、英、法、德、俄、中 6 国共同签署，内容主要限制伊朗核活动以换取国际制裁解除 </p>\n\n<p>当时协议将伊朗低浓缩铀库存限制在 300 公斤，同时限制新核技术研发、拆除部分核设施，并授权国际原子能总署 (IAEA) 进行突击检查。</p>\n\n<p>尽管川普多次批评 JCPOA 是「史上最糟糕的协议」，并于第一任期宣布退出，但由于新协议细节尚未出炉，目前仍难以证明其约束力能够超越前者。</p>\n\n<p>川普周二表示：「那是一条通往核武的道路，而我的协议是一堵阻止核武的高墙。」</p>\n\n<p><em><strong>白宫立场出现重大转变</strong></em></p>\n\n<p>《彭博》指出，川普政府的态度已出现明显转变。</p>\n\n<p>仅在三个月前，白宫仍曾考虑派遣特种部队夺取伊朗浓缩铀，但如今却释出讯号，显示美方愿意接受核材料去向仍存在不确定性，只要能换取中东局势降温与全球经济复苏。</p>\n\n<p>这项战略转向也引发共和党内部质疑。</p>\n\n<p>长期主张对伊强硬的共和党参议员葛兰姆 (Lindsey Graham) 警告，只要伊朗仍保有浓缩铀能力，「那就和 JCPOA 没有差别」。</p>\n\n<p>他表示，如果伊朗完全停止浓缩铀，才算得上是一份好的协议，但他对德黑兰是否愿意接受这项条件抱持怀疑态度。</p>\n\n<p><em><strong>IAEA 警告核扩散风险升高</strong></em></p>\n\n<p>国际原子能总署 (IAEA) 近期已向会员国示警，今年的战争可能带来新的核扩散风险。</p>\n\n<p>在 2025 年 6 月战争爆发前，IAEA 仍能精确掌握福尔多 (Fordow)、伊斯法罕(Isfahan) 及纳坦兹 (Natanz) 等核设施的燃料库存，但自去年美国与以色列展开为期 12 天的空袭后，监督工作已中断。</p>\n\n<p>尽管美国副总统范斯 (JD Vance) 表示，核查人员「绝对会」重返伊朗，但目前公开的协议文本中，并未明确纳入相关条款，为未来核监管留下不少不确定性。</p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">(本文不开放合作伙伴转载)</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13512.html\" title=\"特斯拉自驾技术下一关是「避开坑洞」马斯克：即将推出\">特斯拉自驾技术下一关是「避开坑洞」马斯克：即将推出</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13488.html\" title=\"美伊冲突再升温拖累美股，道琼跌0.7%、油价突破86美元\">美伊冲突再升温拖累美股，道琼跌0.7%、油价突破86美元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12764.html\" title=\"高盛：大型投资人对AI投资有分歧 但均疯狂涌入金融股\">高盛：大型投资人对AI投资有分歧 但均疯狂涌入金融股</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4360.html\" title=\"美国金融霸权未衰退！摩根大通、德银分析为何美元与美股「依然超强」\">美国金融霸权未衰退！摩根大通、德银分析为何美元与美股「依然超强」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-14888.html\" title=\"美中AI战再升级！美控DeepSeek、阿里「恶意蒸馏」窃取技术\">美中AI战再升级！美控DeepSeek、阿里「恶意蒸馏」窃取技术</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-8583.html\" title=\"全球晶片股周二惨遭血洗 美光、SK海力士ADR下杀逾8% SanDisk暴跌13%\">全球晶片股周二惨遭血洗 美光、SK海力士ADR下杀逾8% SanDisk暴跌13%</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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