2兆美元值不值？SpaceX IPO背后的FOMO心理学

马斯克旗下太空探索公司 SpaceX 即将在未来数周启动首次公开募股 (IPO)，市场传出公司正以高达 2 兆美元估值进军资本市场，不仅可能成为史上最受瞩目的科技 IPO 之一，也让华尔街再度陷入「害怕错过」(FOMO) 的投资狂热。

尽管质疑声浪不断，但在特斯拉 (TSLA-US) 过去十年飙涨超过 2,700%、让无数投资人赚进巨额财富后，市场对马斯克愿景的信仰，正成为推升 SpaceX 估值的最大动能。

根据外媒报导，SpaceX 正寻求超过 2 兆美元估值，若顺利挂牌，将远远超越传统航太与科技公司的估值框架。纽约大学金融学教授达摩达兰 (Aswath Damodaran) 坦言，他认为 SpaceX 合理估值更接近 1 兆美元，而非 2 兆美元，但他同时指出，SpaceX 目前拥有比特斯拉更强的「选择权价值」(optionality)，未来潜在上行空间甚至可能超越特斯拉。

达摩达兰表示，SpaceX 目前在技术与商业模式上已大幅领先竞争对手，「现在 SpaceX 比特斯拉更有机会实现那些未来想像。」

马斯克溢价效应发酵华尔街开始用「未来可能性」定价

马斯克多年来透过特斯拉与 SpaceX，不断将外界视为科幻小说的构想变成现实，也让华尔街逐渐改变传统企业估值方式。分析师如今不再将特斯拉视为单纯汽车制造商，而是以人工智慧 (AI)、Robotaxi、自驾技术与人形机器人 Optimus 等未来业务，作为主要估值依据。

目前特斯拉市值约 1.59 兆美元，远高于其汽车业务所能支撑的传统估值。多数看多分析师认为，Robotaxi 与 Optimus 等新业务，已占特斯拉分部估值模型超过一半。

这种「马斯克溢价」也正被复制到 SpaceX 身上。除了现有火箭发射、与美国政府合作的太空合约，以及 Starlink 卫星网路等核心业务外，SpaceX 未来估值更仰赖马斯克提出的太空资料中心、月球基地，甚至火星殖民计划。

方舟投资 (Ark Investment) 认为，SpaceX 约 1.75 兆美元估值「建立在合理成长轨迹之上」，并指出马斯克过去多次压缩市场原先预期的时间表，是投资人愿意买单的重要依据。

持有近 40 亿美元 SpaceX 股份的苏格兰投资信托 Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust，目前则将 SpaceX 估值定在约 1.25 兆美元，并表示将随 IPO 进程重新评估。

FOMO 情绪升温散户热情恐成 SpaceX 最大筹码

真正推升 SpaceX 估值的，或许不是财务模型，而是投资人对错过下一个特斯拉的恐惧。达摩达兰直言，许多分析师早已预设自己会买进 SpaceX，因为他们「承受不起缺席的代价」。

SpaceX 据传计划在 IPO 中出售最多 30% 股权，若以 750 亿美元募资规模计算，其中高达 225 亿美元可能分配给散户投资人。这个规模不仅超过特斯拉过去一年散户净买盘总额，甚至高于近一个月美国散户流入所有股票与 ETF 的总资金。

不过，并非所有华尔街人士都买单。Jonestrading Institutional Services 首席市场策略师欧罗克 (Michael O’Rourke) 指出，若以 SpaceX 去年约 200 亿美元营收估算，2 兆美元估值相当于 100 倍营收，几乎无法用传统投资逻辑合理化。

他警告，这类建立在高度想像与散户热情上的超高估值，往往出现在市场泡沫末期，「等一年后回头看，这可能会是重要警讯。」

尽管市场对 SpaceX 估值分歧极大，但可以确定的是，马斯克过去成功将质疑者变成追随者的能力，正让这场 IPO 不只是企业挂牌，更成为一场华尔街对「未来」愿意付出多少溢价的终极测试。

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之一，也让华尔街再度陷入「害怕错过」(FOMO) 的投资狂热。尽", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6462506/l/fd472aecd4b82103d4b39ea3e6cb995f.jpg", "content": "<p>马斯克旗下太空探索公司 SpaceX 即将在未来数周启动首次公开募股 (IPO)，市场传出公司正以高达 2 兆美元估值进军资本市场，不仅可能成为史上最受瞩目的科技 IPO 之一，也让华尔街再度陷入「害怕错过」(FOMO) 的投资狂热。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6462506/l/fd472aecd4b82103d4b39ea3e6cb995f.jpg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>尽管质疑声浪不断，但在特斯拉 (TSLA-US) 过去十年飙涨超过 2,700%、让无数投资人赚进巨额财富后，市场对马斯克愿景的信仰，正成为推升 SpaceX 估值的最大动能。</p>\n\n<p>根据外媒报导，SpaceX 正寻求超过 2 兆美元估值，若顺利挂牌，将远远超越传统航太与科技公司的估值框架。纽约大学金融学教授达摩达兰 (Aswath Damodaran) 坦言，他认为 SpaceX 合理估值更接近 1 兆美元，而非 2 兆美元，但他同时指出，SpaceX 目前拥有比特斯拉更强的「选择权价值」(optionality)，未来潜在上行空间甚至可能超越特斯拉。</p>\n\n<p>达摩达兰表示，SpaceX 目前在技术与商业模式上已大幅领先竞争对手，「现在 SpaceX 比特斯拉更有机会实现那些未来想像。」</p>\n\n<h6>马斯克溢价效应发酵华尔街开始用「未来可能性」定价</h6>\n\n<p>马斯克多年来透过特斯拉与 SpaceX，不断将外界视为科幻小说的构想变成现实，也让华尔街逐渐改变传统企业估值方式。分析师如今不再将特斯拉视为单纯汽车制造商，而是以人工智慧 (AI)、Robotaxi、自驾技术与人形机器人 Optimus 等未来业务，作为主要估值依据。</p>\n\n<p>目前特斯拉市值约 1.59 兆美元，远高于其汽车业务所能支撑的传统估值。多数看多分析师认为，Robotaxi 与 Optimus 等新业务，已占特斯拉分部估值模型超过一半。</p>\n\n<p>这种「马斯克溢价」也正被复制到 SpaceX 身上。除了现有火箭发射、与美国政府合作的太空合约，以及 Starlink 卫星网路等核心业务外，SpaceX 未来估值更仰赖马斯克提出的太空资料中心、月球基地，甚至火星殖民计划。</p>\n\n<p>方舟投资 (Ark Investment) 认为，SpaceX 约 1.75 兆美元估值「建立在合理成长轨迹之上」，并指出马斯克过去多次压缩市场原先预期的时间表，是投资人愿意买单的重要依据。</p>\n\n<p>持有近 40 亿美元 SpaceX 股份的苏格兰投资信托 Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust，目前则将 SpaceX 估值定在约 1.25 兆美元，并表示将随 IPO 进程重新评估。</p>\n\n<h6>FOMO 情绪升温散户热情恐成 SpaceX 最大筹码</h6>\n\n<p>真正推升 SpaceX 估值的，或许不是财务模型，而是投资人对错过下一个特斯拉的恐惧。达摩达兰直言，许多分析师早已预设自己会买进 SpaceX，因为他们「承受不起缺席的代价」。</p>\n\n<p>SpaceX 据传计划在 IPO 中出售最多 30% 股权，若以 750 亿美元募资规模计算，其中高达 225 亿美元可能分配给散户投资人。这个规模不仅超过特斯拉过去一年散户净买盘总额，甚至高于近一个月美国散户流入所有股票与 ETF 的总资金。</p>\n\n<p>不过，并非所有华尔街人士都买单。Jonestrading Institutional Services 首席市场策略师欧罗克 (Michael O’Rourke) 指出，若以 SpaceX 去年约 200 亿美元营收估算，2 兆美元估值相当于 100 倍营收，几乎无法用传统投资逻辑合理化。</p>\n\n<p>他警告，这类建立在高度想像与散户热情上的超高估值，往往出现在市场泡沫末期，「等一年后回头看，这可能会是重要警讯。」</p>\n\n<p>尽管市场对 SpaceX 估值分歧极大，但可以确定的是，马斯克过去成功将质疑者变成追随者的能力，正让这场 IPO 不只是企业挂牌，更成为一场华尔街对「未来」愿意付出多少溢价的终极测试。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6423.html\" title=\"记忆体大厂产能竞赛引发周期性担忧美光股价应声下跌\">记忆体大厂产能竞赛引发周期性担忧美光股价应声下跌</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-18766.html\" title=\"美股内部裂痕扩大看似危险其实有机会！标普500 年末可能强势上涨\">美股内部裂痕扩大看似危险其实有机会！标普500 年末可能强势上涨</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-9184.html\" title=\"1970年代高通膨梦魇重演？Fed三鹰派主张升息\">1970年代高通膨梦魇重演？Fed三鹰派主张升息</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11896.html\" title=\"Cerebras挑战辉达新AI系统速度快数倍、不用记忆体成亮点\">Cerebras挑战辉达新AI系统速度快数倍、不用记忆体成亮点</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-3407.html\" title=\"J.P. 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