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"title": "市场涨过头了？高盛警告：中东冲突恐成全球市场最大黑天鹅",
"shortTitle": "市场涨过头了？高盛警告：中东冲突恐成全球市场最大黑天鹅",
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"description": "中东停火带动全球股市与 AI 概念股强势反弹，但高盛警告，伊朗局势再度升级与荷莫兹海峡封锁风险，仍可能成为压垮金融市场的最大变数。",
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"content": "<p>美国投资银行高盛 (GS.US) 警告，中东冲突若再度升级，或荷姆兹海峡长时间关闭，仍将是全球金融市场「最明显的下行风险」。即便目前全球股市、新兴市场资产及人工智慧 (AI) 概念股全面反弹，并将市场估值推升至本轮景气循环新高，但潜在风险并未完全解除。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6462642/l/059937bf4f63a42e3ba82f273f104113.jpg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>高盛分析师 Dominic Wilson 在最新报告中指出，随着伊朗停火协议生效，市场风险溢价快速收敛，带动各类资产价格回升。同时，大宗商品与 AI 供应链的实体短缺问题，进一步推动资金流入相关市场，乐观情绪也使以 AI 为主的指数重新回到战前高点，包括韩国、台湾以及那斯达克指数 (Nasdaq)。</p>\n\n<p>Wilson 表示：「在经历快速反弹后，市场风险分布已趋于平衡。」但他认为，市场仍低估更深层的尾端风险，尤其是伊朗局势再度升级的可能性。</p>\n\n<p>高盛指出，若能源供应能逐步恢复正常，将有助于舒缓目前偏向鹰派定价的油价与利率市场压力，并有机会带动更多地区与产业扩大涨势。</p>\n\n<p>此外，高盛也延后全球降息时程预估，认为已开发与新兴市场央行在 2026 年前，降息次数可能减少，甚至不排除维持利率不变。</p>\n\n<p>针对 AI 投资热潮，高盛表示，目前科技投资支出占全球国内生产毛额 (GDP) 比重，已超越 1990 年代末网路泡沫时期高峰，显示市场估值风险正在升高。</p>\n\n<p>高盛进一步指出，AI 产业内部正出现明显的「分配型」波动，也就是赢家与输家之间的差距持续扩大。这种现象使个股波动率维持高档，但同时也让市场整体相关性降至历史低点，进一步压抑大盘指数波动。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11405.html\" title=\"〈美股早盘〉零售销售降温削弱Fed升息预期！主要指数涨跌互现\">〈美股早盘〉零售销售降温削弱Fed升息预期！主要指数涨跌互现</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-19434.html\" title=\"美股牛市未止 已有分析师喊标普500指数明年上万点\">美股牛市未止 已有分析师喊标普500指数明年上万点</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12786.html\" title=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元在债市反弹之际走弱 市场等待PCE与杰克森霍尔会议\">〈纽约汇市〉美元在债市反弹之际走弱 市场等待PCE与杰克森霍尔会议</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6839.html\" title=\"〈美股盘后〉通膨降温标普连二红 费半跌逾2% 美光、SK海力士ADR崩超8%\">〈美股盘后〉通膨降温标普连二红 费半跌逾2% 美光、SK海力士ADR崩超8%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-2482.html\" title=\"英特尔和苹果根本「还没谈好」合作？美媒曝英特尔高层对川普放消息感到意外\">英特尔和苹果根本「还没谈好」合作？美媒曝英特尔高层对川普放消息感到意外</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-19685.html\" title=\"玻璃基板大突破！南韩JNTC将填铜时间从1天缩至数分钟、良率达94%、2027年拚量产\">玻璃基板大突破！南韩JNTC将填铜时间从1天缩至数分钟、良率达94%、2027年拚量产</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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