〈纽约汇市〉美元创9月来最大单周涨幅 Fed升息几成定局

美元周五(13日)再创19个月新高，并写下9月中旬以来最强单周表现。这波涨势主要受到市场对美国联准会(Fed)升息预期大幅升高所带动。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.2%，报103.41，创2025年4月2日以来新高。本周已上涨1.1%。

美元这波涨势始于上周五美国就业报告公布后。美国10月非农就业人数增加16.5万人，远高于市场预期的6.5万人。此外，8月与9月的就业人数合计上修8.4万人。

美元周一短暂喘息后，周二再度走高，主要因美国消费者物价指数(CPI)数据高于预期。10月整体CPI月增0.4%，低于9月的0.6%，但仍高于市场预期的0.3%。排除波动较大的食品与能源价格后，核心CPI月增率维持在0.3%，略高于市场预期的0.2%。

数据显示，美国劳动市场表现强劲，通膨也持续居高不下。在此情况下，央行通常会采取紧缩货币政策。Fed理事华勒(Christopher Waller)周二进一步释出鹰派讯号，表示即使通膨数据低于预期，他仍支持升息，他并指出，若数据再度偏热，政策利率甚至可能需要一次调升50个基点，高于一般升息幅度。

周五公布的最新生产者物价指数(PPI)报告，则稍稍缓解市场疑虑。10月整体PPI月增0.3%，明显低于9月的1.4%，也低于市场预期的0.4%。年增率则为6.5%，略低于预期的6.6%。不过，这仍是2022年11月以来最大的12个月涨幅。

Fifth Third Wealth Advisors投资长Chris Osmond表示，「好消息是，生产者物价通膨已从9月高点降温。坏消息是，降幅可能还不足以让市场获得期待中的利率缓解。生产者物价通膨年增率仍高达6.5%，今天公布的报告提高了限制性利率维持更长时间的风险，恐怕超出投资人原先预期。」

他补充，「或许比整体数字更重要的是，通膨压力正从能源扩散到其他领域。10月能源价格实际下跌，但食品价格上涨1.3%，服务业价格连续第五个月上涨，运输与仓储成本也增加2.0%。这显示通膨正逐渐渗透至整体经济，而非仅集中在最初出现价格压力的领域。若这种情况持续，Fed就更难将通膨视为暂时现象。」

根据芝商所(CME)FedWatch工具，交易员几乎笃定Fed将在12月升息，问题在于升息幅度。市场预期升息25个基点的机率接近90%，升息幅度高达50个基点的机率则约为10%。

日元再度贬破160关卡

美元走强对日元造成压力，日元兑美元汇率本周创下9月中旬以来最差单周表现。日元最新报159.76兑1美元，稍早盘中一度触及160.19的低点。

这是日元连续第二个交易日贬破160关卡。周四日元才首次自9月2日以来跌破此水准。过去，160关卡曾多次触发东京当局大规模干预汇市。

日本财务省周一表示，7月至9月期间，日本在外汇市场干预操作中共动用15.4兆日元（约963.8亿美元），其中包括7月30日单日创纪录的7.98兆日元，以及7月31日与华府采取史无前例联合行动时投入的5.55兆日元。这是美日自1998年以来首次联手买进日元。

日本财务省负责外汇事务的最高官员三村淳(Atsushi Mimura)警告市场应提防「单边走势」，并提醒交易员，「现在就忘记」美日联合干预还言之过早。

美元走强也使欧元承压。欧元兑美元下跌0.3%，至1.1022美元，本周创下10月初以来最差单周表现。

稍早公布的官方初值估计显示，欧元区2026年第三季国内生产毛额(GDP)季增0.4%，低于第二季的0.6%，但符合市场预期。数据也更新了劳动市场状况，欧元区第三季就业成长则呈现停滞。

截至台湾时间周六 (14 日) 约 5:40 价格:

美元指数报 103.4109。+0.2367%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1023美元。-0.3075%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3213美元。-0.1889%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.6776美元。-0.4408%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4267加币。+0.0842%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑159.7700日元。-0.0751%

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美国10月非农增16.5万、CPI与PPI皆高于预期，Fed理事华勒称若数据再热，利率或需升50基点
美元走强压低日元与欧元；日元两度跌破160关卡，欧元兑美元报1.1022，创10月初来最差周表现", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6661753/l/192ec88b50796a00324cd65d15de0417.jpg", "content": "美元周五(13日)再创19个月新高，并写下9月中旬以来最强单周表现。这波涨势主要受到市场对美国联准会(Fed)升息预期大幅升高所带动。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6661753/l/192ec88b50796a00324cd65d15de0417.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元创9月来最大单周涨幅 Fed升息几成定局\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.2%，报103.41，创2025年4月2日以来新高。本周已上涨1.1%。\n\n美元这波涨势始于上周五美国就业报告公布后。美国10月非农就业人数增加16.5万人，远高于市场预期的6.5万人。此外，8月与9月的就业人数合计上修8.4万人。\n\n美元周一短暂喘息后，周二再度走高，主要因美国消费者物价指数(CPI)数据高于预期。10月整体CPI月增0.4%，低于9月的0.6%，但仍高于市场预期的0.3%。排除波动较大的食品与能源价格后，核心CPI月增率维持在0.3%，略高于市场预期的0.2%。\n\n数据显示，美国劳动市场表现强劲，通膨也持续居高不下。在此情况下，央行通常会采取紧缩货币政策。Fed理事华勒(Christopher Waller)周二进一步释出鹰派讯号，表示即使通膨数据低于预期，他仍支持升息，他并指出，若数据再度偏热，政策利率甚至可能需要一次调升50个基点，高于一般升息幅度。\n\n周五公布的最新生产者物价指数(PPI)报告，则稍稍缓解市场疑虑。10月整体PPI月增0.3%，明显低于9月的1.4%，也低于市场预期的0.4%。年增率则为6.5%，略低于预期的6.6%。不过，这仍是2022年11月以来最大的12个月涨幅。\n\nFifth Third Wealth Advisors投资长Chris Osmond表示，「好消息是，生产者物价通膨已从9月高点降温。坏消息是，降幅可能还不足以让市场获得期待中的利率缓解。生产者物价通膨年增率仍高达6.5%，今天公布的报告提高了限制性利率维持更长时间的风险，恐怕超出投资人原先预期。」\n\n他补充，「或许比整体数字更重要的是，通膨压力正从能源扩散到其他领域。10月能源价格实际下跌，但食品价格上涨1.3%，服务业价格连续第五个月上涨，运输与仓储成本也增加2.0%。这显示通膨正逐渐渗透至整体经济，而非仅集中在最初出现价格压力的领域。若这种情况持续，Fed就更难将通膨视为暂时现象。」\n\n根据芝商所(CME)FedWatch工具，交易员几乎笃定Fed将在12月升息，问题在于升息幅度。市场预期升息25个基点的机率接近90%，升息幅度高达50个基点的机率则约为10%。\n\n日元再度贬破160关卡\n\n美元走强对日元造成压力，日元兑美元汇率本周创下9月中旬以来最差单周表现。日元最新报159.76兑1美元，稍早盘中一度触及160.19的低点。\n\n这是日元连续第二个交易日贬破160关卡。周四日元才首次自9月2日以来跌破此水准。过去，160关卡曾多次触发东京当局大规模干预汇市。\n\n日本财务省周一表示，7月至9月期间，日本在外汇市场干预操作中共动用15.4兆日元（约963.8亿美元），其中包括7月30日单日创纪录的7.98兆日元，以及7月31日与华府采取史无前例联合行动时投入的5.55兆日元。这是美日自1998年以来首次联手买进日元。\n\n日本财务省负责外汇事务的最高官员三村淳(Atsushi Mimura)警告市场应提防「单边走势」，并提醒交易员，「现在就忘记」美日联合干预还言之过早。\n\n美元走强也使欧元承压。欧元兑美元下跌0.3%，至1.1022美元，本周创下10月初以来最差单周表现。\n\n稍早公布的官方初值估计显示，欧元区2026年第三季国内生产毛额(GDP)季增0.4%，低于第二季的0.6%，但符合市场预期。数据也更新了劳动市场状况，欧元区第三季就业成长则呈现停滞。\n\n截至台湾时间周六 (14 日) 约 5:40 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 103.4109。+0.2367%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1023美元。-0.3075%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3213美元。-0.1889%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.6776美元。-0.4408%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4267<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。+0.0842%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑159.7700<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0751%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-21238.html\" title=\"连亚马逊都缺电数十亿美元辉达晶片堆在仓库积灰\">连亚马逊都缺电数十亿美元辉达晶片堆在仓库积灰</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13111.html\" title=\"Fed不能再等了！哈玛克直言现在就是升息时机\">Fed不能再等了！哈玛克直言现在就是升息时机</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15955.html\" title=\"10年期殖利率若跨过5.25%一切都变了！美债恐不再是股市避风港\">10年期殖利率若跨过5.25%一切都变了！美债恐不再是股市避风港</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11541.html\" title=\"AI盛宴正如火如荼进行华尔街却盯着30年美债冷汗直流\">AI盛宴正如火如荼进行华尔街却盯着30年美债冷汗直流</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-9857.html\" title=\"7700→8250！大幅调高标普年底目标逾一成华尔街大多头：美科技股正处于「打折阶段」\">7700→8250！大幅调高标普年底目标逾一成华尔街大多头：美科技股正处于「打折阶段」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-18085.html\" 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