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木头姐依旧看好辉达!但示警GPU市占若降、未来5年年化报酬率恐腰斩至25%

2026-11-14 13:59:36 网络 阅读(1)

方舟投资(ARK Invest)执行长「木头姐」Cathie Wood认为,辉达(NVDA-US) 不能只依赖执行长黄仁勋一人,即使失去这位共同创办人,公司仍拥有足以支撑未来发展的优秀工程团队。不过,随着竞争对手逐渐增加,若辉达GPU市占率进一步下滑,方舟投资预估的未来5年年化报酬率,可能从原先50%以上降至25%。

木头姐依旧看好辉达!但示警GPU市占若降、未来5年年化报酬率恐腰斩至25%

根据《Benzinga》报导,Wood 12日接受《雅虎财经投资》访问时表示,黄仁勋是辉达发展的重要推手,但公司并非只有他一个核心人物,背后还有一支实力坚强的工程师团队。

Wood指出,目前辉达约掌握83%的GPU市场。方舟投资过去曾预估其市占率将降至49%,后来将未来5年的假设上修至约53%,部分原因是将SpaceX的轨道运算布局纳入考量。

Wood表示:「如果我们将这项市占率假设下修至38%,未来5年的复合年化报酬率将从原本50%多的水准降至25%。」她称这是「非常保守的情境假设」。

Wood点名,特斯拉(TSLA-US) 、博通(AVGO-US) 及Cerebras(CBRS-US) 都可能成为辉达的竞争对手。不过,她也认为,OpenAI与Anthropic等人工智慧(AI)业者将持续带动市场需求。

值得注意的是,Wood上述评论是在辉达宣布黄仁勋辞职之前做出。辉达周四宣布,黄仁勋辞去执行长及董事职务,并任命长期担任财务长的Colette Kress暂代执行长,同时启动接班人遴选程序。

谈到黄仁勋离开后的管理挑战,Wood表示,方舟投资评估企业时,最重视的是人才、管理阶层及企业文化。

她也提醒,黄仁勋卸任后,外界或许会发现过去不曾注意到的企业文化问题,因此辉达在新领导人带领下,必须维持极高的企业标准。

尽管如此,Wood仍对辉达的工程人才抱持信心。她指出,若公司没有足够优秀的人才,也不可能发展到今天的规模。

根据11月12日的投资组合资料,辉达在方舟旗下多档ETF中均占有一定比重,包括ARK 创新 ETF(ARKK-US) 占3.44%、ARK 自动化技术与机器人 ETF(ARKQ-US) 占5.02%、ARK Next Generation Technology ETF(ARKW-US) 占3.91%、ARK ETF Trust - ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX-US) 占4.44%,以及ARK 金融科技创新 ETF(ARKF-US) 占2.74%。

Wood并透露,方舟投资近期在SpaceX(SPCX-US) 交易相关消息后买进辉达股票。

股价方面,辉达周五(13日)收盘下跌2.01%,收于162.85美元。

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