升息辩论已转向明年1月！Fed官员密集放鹰市场甚至押注一路连升至3月

联准会(Fed)官员本周密集演说，都触及对通膨升温的担忧，由于内容偏向鹰派，不但巩固市场对12月升息的预期，也让外界开始关注明年1月是否可能连续升息。如果成真，这将是2023年以来首次连续升息。

本周二公布的10月消费者物价指数(CPI)报告显示，通膨不仅加速升温，涨价范围也扩大至日常商品与服务，让升息理由更为迫切。

纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)说，「通膨实在太高了」，芝加哥联准银行总裁古尔斯比(Austan Goolsbee)则形容这份数据「令人不安，几乎到了令人震惊的程度」。

无独有偶，达拉斯联准银行总裁萝根(Lorie Logan)表示，Fed可能需要比她原先预期「更快升息」，Fed理事华勒(Christopher Waller)更进一步警告，下个月可能需要升息2码(50个基点)。

Fitch Ratings美国经济研究主管Olu Sonola说：「12月升息1码(25个基点)显然已经箭在弦上。真正的问题是，下一次升息会多快到来，以及最终还需要升息几次。」

联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)19名官员中，约有一半在本周发表谈话，其中也包括将在12月及明年1月会议投票的官员。不过，对于后续升息幅度与速度，官员释出的讯号并不一致。

例如，华勒提及可能采取幅度较大的升息，克里夫兰联准银行总裁哈玛克(Beth Hammack)重申偏好更频繁、幅度较小的升息，而费城联准银行总裁保尔森(Anna Paulson)主张循序渐进升息，官员看法呈现分歧。

本周五公布的生产者价格指数(PPI)再度凸显通膨压力。PPI呈现批发价格，这正是偏好的Fed通膨指标之一的重要组成部分，数据显示，10月年增幅创2022年以来最大。从运输与仓储成本大幅上升来看，进一步看出整体经济仍面临物价持续上涨的压力。

加拿大皇家银行(RBC)美国经济研究主管Michael Reid说：「现在听起来，Fed似乎担心通膨重新加速，因此希望提前采取行动，提高升息频率，甚至可能调高FOMC认定的终端利率，也就是利率最终应该升到多高。」

美银、Santander上修升息预测

本周经济数据与联准会官员密集发言后，华尔街经济学家调升对升息的预测看法：美国银行(BofA)目前预期，Fed接下来三次会议(12月、1月、3月)都将升息，Santander US Capital Markets则预测12月与明年3月各升息一次。

主张谨慎升息的理由，则在于经济部分领域对借贷成本上升相当敏感，例如房市。本周经济数据凸显房市低迷程度，成屋销售量上月下滑至16年来低点。

波士顿联准银行总裁柯林斯(Susan Collins)周五坦言，升息可能进一步降低民众的购屋负担能力，但她也强调，从长期来看，物价稳定对房市及整体经济更为重要。

她谈到有必要升息时表示：「在我看来，货币政策应该朝哪个方向调整，似乎已经很明确。」但她并未透露自己认为适当的升息速度。

她说：「我不想在利率应该升到多高，或升息速度应该多快这些问题上，过早表明立场。」

为何考虑渐进升息？房市冲击、AI热潮降温

另一项顾虑，是市场担忧人工智慧(AI)热潮可能降温，引发股市波动。Fed理事鲍曼(Michelle Bowman)本周警告，若AI投资报酬不如预期，可能引发股价大幅下跌等风险。

她表示：「股价下跌可能削弱消费支出的韧性，而利率上升也可能进一步加重对利率敏感的经济部门负担，例如房市与小型企业投资。」

另一项变数是未来几个月能源价格可能下跌，进而减轻燃料成本压力，让家庭与企业获得喘息空间。

里奇蒙联准银行总裁巴金(Tom Barkin)本周一表示，利率需要进一步调高，但应采取审慎步调。

Clocktower Group首席总体策略师、曾任Fed理事米兰(Stephen Miran)顾问的Eric Wallerstein说：「大多数Fed官员似乎都认同有必要升息，也倾向不要操之过急。」

市场已押注连三次升息美债殖利率剧烈震荡

联准会官员9月升息1码，将联邦基金利率目标区间调高至3.75%至4%，但10月FOMC会议决定按兵不动。

Fed主席华许(Kevin Warsh)自10月记者会后便未再公开发言，尽管他预定周一在一场活动中主持他成立的AI与生产力工作小组，但外界普遍不预期他会偏离多次表明的立场，也就是不对近期货币政策走向提供任何前瞻指引。

投资人早就等不急Fed进一步表态，市场目前已反映12月、明年1月及3月各升息1码的预期。在Fed官员密集演说之前，投资人原本只预期12月与明年3月升息。

Fed官员本周谈话对市场造成的冲击，也反映在美债殖利率的剧烈波动。华勒与萝根分别在周二通膨数据公布前后发表谈话，随后美债殖利率大幅攀升，美国2年期公债殖利率当天上升19个基点至4.75%，创下2025年4月美国总统川普宣布关税措施、引发全球市场动荡以来最大单日涨幅。

Nationwide首席经济学家Kathy Bostjancic说：「Fed释出的政策指引有些令人困惑，引发美债殖利率大幅波动。再加上华许选择不发表评论，其他官员便填补了这个空缺。」

最终，经济成长加速可能为Fed升息提供支撑。上周公布的数据显示，10月就业成长大幅加快，失业率则小幅下降。Fed官员在12月再次开会前，还会看到一份就业报告、以及另一份10月通膨数据。

目前少有观察人士预期，这批数据会显示经济出现明显放缓。

PGIM美国首席经济学家Robert Sockin说：「在经济成长强劲、通膨偏高的环境下，循序渐进的政策是一项错误。历史经验显示，这种做法最终很可能迫使央行以更快速度升息，而且累计紧缩幅度也会比一开始就采取行动来得更大。」

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10月CPI与PPI显示通膨升温扩大，华勒称下月可能升2码，威廉斯称通膨「实在太高了」。
美银预期12月、1月、3月都升息；美债殖利率剧震，2年期殖利率单日跳升19基点至4.75%。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6662371/l/4ad9337abd5bb65db357fd5107eebc29.jpg", "content": "联准会(Fed)官员本周密集演说，都触及对通膨升温的担忧，由于内容偏向鹰派，不但巩固市场对12月升息的预期，也让外界开始关注明年1月是否可能连续升息。如果成真，这将是2023年以来首次连续升息。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6662371/l/4ad9337abd5bb65db357fd5107eebc29.jpg\" alt=\"升息辩论已转向明年1月！Fed官员密集放鹰市场甚至押注一路连升至3月\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n本周二公布的10月消费者物价指数(CPI)报告显示，通膨不仅加速升温，涨价范围也扩大至日常商品与服务，让升息理由更为迫切。\n\n纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)说，「通膨实在太高了」，芝加哥联准银行总裁古尔斯比(Austan Goolsbee)则形容这份数据「令人不安，几乎到了令人震惊的程度」。\n\n无独有偶，达拉斯联准银行总裁萝根(Lorie Logan)表示，Fed可能需要比她原先预期「更快升息」，Fed理事华勒(Christopher Waller)更进一步警告，下个月可能需要升息2码(50个基点)。\n\nFitch Ratings美国经济研究主管Olu Sonola说：「12月升息1码(25个基点)显然已经箭在弦上。真正的问题是，下一次升息会多快到来，以及最终还需要升息几次。」\n\n联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)19名官员中，约有一半在本周发表谈话，其中也包括将在12月及明年1月会议投票的官员。不过，对于后续升息幅度与速度，官员释出的讯号并不一致。\n\n例如，华勒提及可能采取幅度较大的升息，克里夫兰联准银行总裁哈玛克(Beth Hammack)重申偏好更频繁、幅度较小的升息，而费城联准银行总裁保尔森(Anna Paulson)主张循序渐进升息，官员看法呈现分歧。\n\n本周五公布的生产者价格指数(PPI)再度凸显通膨压力。PPI呈现批发价格，这正是偏好的Fed通膨指标之一的重要组成部分，数据显示，10月年增幅创2022年以来最大。从运输与仓储成本大幅上升来看，进一步看出整体经济仍面临物价持续上涨的压力。\n\n加拿大皇家银行(RBC)美国经济研究主管Michael Reid说：「现在听起来，Fed似乎担心通膨重新加速，因此希望提前采取行动，提高升息频率，甚至可能调高FOMC认定的终端利率，也就是利率最终应该升到多高。」\n\n<h6>美银、Santander上修升息预测</h6>\n\n本周经济数据与联准会官员密集发言后，华尔街经济学家调升对升息的预测看法：美国银行(BofA)目前预期，Fed接下来三次会议(12月、1月、3月)都将升息，Santander US Capital Markets则预测12月与明年3月各升息一次。\n\n主张谨慎升息的理由，则在于经济部分领域对借贷成本上升相当敏感，例如房市。本周经济数据凸显房市低迷程度，成屋销售量上月下滑至16年来低点。\n\n波士顿联准银行总裁柯林斯(Susan Collins)周五坦言，升息可能进一步降低民众的购屋负担能力，但她也强调，从长期来看，物价稳定对房市及整体经济更为重要。\n\n她谈到有必要升息时表示：「在我看来，货币政策应该朝哪个方向调整，似乎已经很明确。」但她并未透露自己认为适当的升息速度。\n\n她说：「我不想在利率应该升到多高，或升息速度应该多快这些问题上，过早表明立场。」\n\n<h6>为何考虑渐进升息？房市冲击、AI热潮降温</h6>\n\n另一项顾虑，是市场担忧人工智慧(AI)热潮可能降温，引发股市波动。Fed理事鲍曼(Michelle Bowman)本周警告，若AI投资报酬不如预期，可能引发股价大幅下跌等风险。\n\n她表示：「股价下跌可能削弱消费支出的韧性，而利率上升也可能进一步加重对利率敏感的经济部门负担，例如房市与小型企业投资。」\n\n另一项变数是未来几个月能源价格可能下跌，进而减轻燃料成本压力，让家庭与企业获得喘息空间。\n\n里奇蒙联准银行总裁巴金(Tom Barkin)本周一表示，利率需要进一步调高，但应采取审慎步调。\n\nClocktower Group首席总体策略师、曾任Fed理事米兰(Stephen Miran)顾问的Eric Wallerstein说：「大多数Fed官员似乎都认同有必要升息，也倾向不要操之过急。」\n\n<h6>市场已押注连三次升息美债殖利率剧烈震荡</h6>\n\n联准会官员9月升息1码，将联邦基金利率目标区间调高至3.75%至4%，但10月FOMC会议决定按兵不动。\n\nFed主席华许(Kevin Warsh)自10月记者会后便未再公开发言，尽管他预定周一在一场活动中主持他成立的AI与生产力工作小组，但外界普遍不预期他会偏离多次表明的立场，也就是不对近期货币政策走向提供任何前瞻指引。\n\n投资人早就等不急Fed进一步表态，市场目前已反映12月、明年1月及3月各升息1码的预期。在Fed官员密集演说之前，投资人原本只预期12月与明年3月升息。\n\nFed官员本周谈话对市场造成的冲击，也反映在美债殖利率的剧烈波动。华勒与萝根分别在周二通膨数据公布前后发表谈话，随后美债殖利率大幅攀升，美国2年期公债殖利率当天上升19个基点至4.75%，创下2025年4月美国总统川普宣布关税措施、引发全球市场动荡以来最大单日涨幅。\n\nNationwide首席经济学家Kathy Bostjancic说：「Fed释出的政策指引有些令人困惑，引发美债殖利率大幅波动。再加上华许选择不发表评论，其他官员便填补了这个空缺。」\n\n最终，经济成长加速可能为Fed升息提供支撑。上周公布的数据显示，10月就业成长大幅加快，失业率则小幅下降。Fed官员在12月再次开会前，还会看到一份就业报告、以及另一份10月通膨数据。\n\n目前少有观察人士预期，这批数据会显示经济出现明显放缓。\n\nPGIM美国首席经济学家Robert Sockin说：「在经济成长强劲、通膨偏高的环境下，循序渐进的政策是一项错误。历史经验显示，这种做法最终很可能迫使央行以更快速度升息，而且累计紧缩幅度也会比一开始就采取行动来得更大。」\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a 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