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「科技七巨头」股价修正 或许反而是美股健康讯号

2026-10-27 23:01:30 网络 阅读(98)

《MarketWatch》报导,AI 支出持续飙升,加上市场对通膨顽固不退的担忧,导致华尔街大型科技股出现一年多来最快跌势之一,也让追踪「科技七巨头」的 ETF 正式进入修正区间。

「科技七巨头」股价修正 或许反而是美股健康讯号

追踪 Alphabet(GOOGL-US)、亚马逊 (AMZN-US)、苹果 (AAPL-US)、Meta(META-US)、微软 (MSFT-US)、特斯拉 (TSLA-US) 及辉达 (NVDA-US) 表现的 Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS-US) 周二 (23 日) 下跌 1.4%。

该 ETF 自 5 月 14 日创下 70.94 美元的历史收盘高点以来,已累计下跌 11%。周二收在 63.14 美元,跌破 63.85 美元修正门槛。所谓修正,是指自近期高点回落至少 10%。根据道琼市场数据,这是自 2025 年 4 月川普政府大规模宣布关税措施期间以来,科技七巨头遭遇最严重的一波卖压。

虽然近期通膨降温速度不如预期,以及联准会 (Fed) 政策立场转趋鹰派,是引发这波抛售的直接催化剂,但 Wedbush Funds 投资组合经理人 Cullen Rogers 认为,投资人也可能开始对过去几年主导市场的大型科技股行情感到疲乏。

目前七巨头的总市值约占标普 500 指数的 34%。随着市值不断膨胀,这些企业的 AI 资本支出也同步快速增加。其中 Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta 与微软今年在 AI 业务上的支出总额,预计将达到 7,000 亿美元。

Rogers 认为,科技七巨头的卖压,主要反映投资人正在获利了结,并寻找市场中的其他机会。

他表示,「科技七巨头已经有过一段非常惊人的涨势。」不过,目前市场也开始高度关注「第二层与第三层 AI 受惠股」,例如记忆体晶片公司。

Rogers 指出,市场焦点已从投入 AI 资本支出的企业本身,逐渐转向那些真正受惠于 AI 投资的公司。

他认为,七巨头的回档其实反映了市场资金正常轮动,是健康市场的一种表现,「这不是投资人争先恐后逃离市场。但去寻找下一层受惠者,以及未来真正能将 AI 商业化变现的企业,确实相当合理。」

Interactive Brokers 策略师 Steve Sosnick 则指出,「大数法则正在对这些公司产生不利影响。」他认为,想投资科技七巨头的资金,很可能早就已经进场。「现在要让新的资金持续流入这些股票,需要更多努力。」

近几周来,亚马逊与辉达陆续发行新债,而 Alphabet 则透过发行股票筹资,以满足 AI 投资所需的庞大资本需求。

Sosnick 表示,大型科技公司正逐步告别过去的「轻资产模式」,转而投入大量资金建设资料中心。而近期股票抛售,也反映市场开始更关注这些投资的报酬。投资人如今要求企业展现更高的资本纪律与财务效率。

但 Sosnick 也强调,「七巨头」依然是 AI 浪潮中最具优势的竞争者。这些科技巨头很早便开始在 AI 产业链各环节积极布局,因此拥有明显的先行优势,「但目前的赢家未必就是长期的赢家。未来最成功的 AI 公司,甚至可能还尚未诞生。」

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