〈纽约汇市〉美元走弱油价转跌、市场消化比预期温和的Fed会议纪录

美元周四 (9 日) 走弱，主要因油价下跌降低了市场对通膨的担忧，加上前一天公布的联准会 (Fed) 会议纪录显示，决策官员对未来利率走向存在明显分歧。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 小幅下跌至 100.96。

周三公布的 6 月 16–17 日联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议纪录显示，少数官员曾主张立即升息。

最终，FOMC 决定维持政策利率不变，但更新后的点阵图明显偏鹰，因为决策官员预期中东冲突推升油价，将带动未来通膨再次升温。

尽管如此，会议纪录也反映出官员们对利率前景并未形成一致共识。多数官员认为，通膨仍有机会在没有额外升息的情况下，逐步回到联准会设定的 2% 目标。另一方面，也有不少官员担心，AI 带动的强劲需求、伊朗冲突，以及关税政策等因素，都可能让通膨维持在较高水准，因此未来仍不能排除进一步升息的可能。

摩根大通经济学家 Michael Feroli 表示，这份会议纪录确实偏向鹰派，但并没有超出市场预期，因为三周前公布的点阵图其实就已经透露相同的政策方向。他指出，所有与会官员都支持此次维持利率不变，虽然有少数官员认为升息已有充分理由，但最终仍同意按兵不动。

自联准会 6 月会议以来，市场的通膨环境其实已出现明显变化。就在宣布利率决策的同一天，美国与伊朗达成临时和平协议，油价随即跌回战前水准，也使市场对通膨升温的担忧有所降温。

然而，本周双方又爆发自停火协议以来最激烈的军事冲突，使原油价格再次反弹，也提醒投资人，中东局势依然十分脆弱，任何变化都可能再次推升能源价格与通膨。

油价转跌川普：伊朗还是想谈判

油价周四再度回落，前一天才创下近三周新高。在美国总统川普表示伊朗「非常想达成协议」后，油价开始下跌。

此前，美国因三艘商船遭到攻击，于周二和周三对伊朗境内约 170 个军事目标发动空袭，包括防空系统、飞弹与无人机储存设施，以及超过 60 艘伊斯兰革命卫队的小型快艇。伊朗则根据官媒报导，向中东地区的美军基地发动报复性攻击。

川普在北约 (NATO) 于土耳其举行的峰会期间表示，美伊之间的停火已经结束，他也不希望再与伊朗打交道。不过，在离开峰会、搭乘空军一号接受媒体访问时，他又表示，美军此次行动只是针对油轮遇袭事件的报复措施。

当记者问到，美国是否可能再次与伊朗爆发全面战争时，川普回答：「我不知道。」并谈到，「他们刚刚打电话来，他们真的非常想达成协议。我只是不知道他们是否值得谈判，也不知道他们会不会遵守协议，这才是真正的问题。」

市场似乎将这番言论解读为双方都不希望冲突持续升高，因此油价随后回落，也进一步减轻了市场对通膨的担忧。

Macquarie 外汇与利率策略师 Thierry Wizman 认为，虽然油价近两天有所反弹，但与 6 月初相比仍明显偏低，而这种变化已经开始影响联准会官员对通膨的判断。他预期，如果未来一周油价没有继续上涨，联准会主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 将有机会收敛 6 月以来偏鹰的政策立场。

但他也提醒，若油价再次快速飙升，不仅联准会，欧洲央行 (ECB)、英国央行(BoE) 及澳洲央行 (RBA) 等主要央行，都可能重新采取更强硬的态度来对抗通膨。

至于联准会下一步何时升息，Wizman 认为，油价将是最重要的观察指标。若油价再次上涨，联准会可能在 9 月就采取行动。若油价维持目前水准，则更可能等到 10 月才升息。

另一方面，日元当天难得对美元走强，美元兑日元下跌 0.1% 至 162.40。

不过，日元仍徘徊在近 40 年来低点附近，汇率依然高于 160。由于今年稍早日本政府正是在这个价位附近进场干预汇市，因此市场仍密切关注后续是否会再次面临官方干预。

截至台湾时间周五 (10 日) 约 5:40 价格:

美元指数报 100.9329。-0.0023%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 欧元兑 1.1430 美元。0.0000%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 英镑兑 1.3399 美元。-0.0746%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 澳币兑 0.6936 美元。-0.0720%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4168 加币。0.0000%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 162.3400 日元。-0.0246%

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"〈纽约汇市〉美元走弱油价转跌、市场消化比预期温和的Fed会", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "美元周四 (9 日) 走弱，主要因油价下跌降低了市场对通膨的担忧，加上前一天公布的联准会 (Fed) 会议纪录显示，决策官员对未来利率走向存在明显分歧。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6529739/l/7718fb3096e4de9c2cc49cded4123226.jpg", "content": "美元周四 (9 日) 走弱，主要因油价下跌降低了市场对通膨的担忧，加上前一天公布的联准会 (Fed) 会议纪录显示，决策官员对未来利率走向存在明显分歧。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6529739/l/7718fb3096e4de9c2cc49cded4123226.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元走弱油价转跌、市场消化比预期温和的Fed会议纪录\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 小幅下跌至 100.96。\n\n周三公布的 6 月 16–17 日联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议纪录显示，少数官员曾主张立即升息。\n\n最终，FOMC 决定维持政策利率不变，但更新后的点阵图明显偏鹰，因为决策官员预期中东冲突推升油价，将带动未来通膨再次升温。\n\n尽管如此，会议纪录也反映出官员们对利率前景并未形成一致共识。多数官员认为，通膨仍有机会在没有额外升息的情况下，逐步回到联准会设定的 2% 目标。另一方面，也有不少官员担心，AI 带动的强劲需求、伊朗冲突，以及关税政策等因素，都可能让通膨维持在较高水准，因此未来仍不能排除进一步升息的可能。\n\n摩根大通经济学家 Michael Feroli 表示，这份会议纪录确实偏向鹰派，但并没有超出市场预期，因为三周前公布的点阵图其实就已经透露相同的政策方向。他指出，所有与会官员都支持此次维持利率不变，虽然有少数官员认为升息已有充分理由，但最终仍同意按兵不动。\n\n自联准会 6 月会议以来，市场的通膨环境其实已出现明显变化。就在宣布利率决策的同一天，美国与伊朗达成临时和平协议，油价随即跌回战前水准，也使市场对通膨升温的担忧有所降温。\n\n然而，本周双方又爆发自停火协议以来最激烈的军事冲突，使原油价格再次反弹，也提醒投资人，中东局势依然十分脆弱，任何变化都可能再次推升能源价格与通膨。\n\n油价转跌川普：伊朗还是想谈判\n\n油价周四再度回落，前一天才创下近三周新高。在美国总统川普表示伊朗「非常想达成协议」后，油价开始下跌。\n\n此前，美国因三艘商船遭到攻击，于周二和周三对伊朗境内约 170 个军事目标发动空袭，包括防空系统、飞弹与无人机储存设施，以及超过 60 艘伊斯兰革命卫队的小型快艇。伊朗则根据官媒报导，向中东地区的美军基地发动报复性攻击。\n\n川普在北约 (NATO) 于土耳其举行的峰会期间表示，美伊之间的停火已经结束，他也不希望再与伊朗打交道。不过，在离开峰会、搭乘空军一号接受媒体访问时，他又表示，美军此次行动只是针对油轮遇袭事件的报复措施。\n\n当记者问到，美国是否可能再次与伊朗爆发全面战争时，川普回答：「我不知道。」并谈到，「他们刚刚打电话来，他们真的非常想达成协议。我只是不知道他们是否值得谈判，也不知道他们会不会遵守协议，这才是真正的问题。」\n\n市场似乎将这番言论解读为双方都不希望冲突持续升高，因此油价随后回落，也进一步减轻了市场对通膨的担忧。\n\nMacquarie 外汇与利率策略师 Thierry Wizman 认为，虽然油价近两天有所反弹，但与 6 月初相比仍明显偏低，而这种变化已经开始影响联准会官员对通膨的判断。他预期，如果未来一周油价没有继续上涨，联准会主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 将有机会收敛 6 月以来偏鹰的政策立场。\n\n但他也提醒，若油价再次快速飙升，不仅联准会，欧洲央行 (ECB)、英国央行(BoE) 及澳洲央行 (RBA) 等主要央行，都可能重新采取更强硬的态度来对抗通膨。\n\n至于联准会下一步何时升息，Wizman 认为，油价将是最重要的观察指标。若油价再次上涨，联准会可能在 9 月就采取行动。若油价维持目前水准，则更可能等到 10 月才升息。\n\n另一方面，日元当天难得对美元走强，美元兑日元下跌 0.1% 至 162.40。\n\n不过，日元仍徘徊在近 40 年来低点附近，汇率依然高于 160。由于今年稍早日本政府正是在这个价位附近进场干预汇市，因此市场仍密切关注后续是否会再次面临官方干预。\n\n截至台湾时间周五 (10 日) 约 5:40 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 100.9329。-0.0023% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑 1.1430 美元。0.0000% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑 1.3399 美元。-0.0746% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑 0.6936 美元。-0.0720%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4168 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。0.0000%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 162.3400 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0246%</li>\n</ul>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-16559.html\" title=\"川普宣布达格陵兰协议将大规模驻军并获「永久安全控制权」\">川普宣布达格陵兰协议将大规模驻军并获「永久安全控制权」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-2101.html\" title=\"台积电不排除因通膨涨价！称AI不是泡沫、否认海外建厂是因政治施压\">台积电不排除因通膨涨价！称AI不是泡沫、否认海外建厂是因政治施压</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12772.html\" title=\"OpenAI自研晶片超车辉达？Jalapeno两项测试击败GB300\">OpenAI自研晶片超车辉达？Jalapeno两项测试击败GB300</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15051.html\" title=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元小幅波动市场聚焦央行会议\">〈纽约汇市〉美元小幅波动市场聚焦央行会议</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15041.html\" title=\"贝森特砸60亿美元也压不住！10年期美债殖利率冲上近3年新高\">贝森特砸60亿美元也压不住！10年期美债殖利率冲上近3年新高</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11061.html\" 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