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"title": "Fed要大改造了!华许喊「体制改革」 5大工作小组全面动刀",
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"description": "美国联准会 (Fed) 主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 周二 (14 日) 在国会听证会上宣示,Fed 需要进行一场政策「体制改革」(regime change),以摆脱过去政策失误造成的高通膨。他将通膨形容为加诸美国民众与企业身",
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"content": "<p>美国联准会 (Fed) 主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 周二 (14 日) 在国会听证会上宣示,Fed 需要进行一场政策「体制改革」(regime change),以摆脱过去政策失误造成的高通膨。他将通膨形容为加诸美国民众与企业身上的「税」,并透露已成立 5 个工作小组,全面检讨 Fed 的政策沟通、科技、资产负债表、经济数据与通膨评估方式。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6534925/l/6b39559e45e0c31e947b3be62f47a4fc.jpg\" alt=\"Fed要大改造了!华许喊「体制改革」 5大工作小组全面动刀\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>华许表示,通膨是一项「不公平的负担」,犹如对美国民众与企业课税,而 Fed 计划消除这项「税负」。</p>\n\n<p>他说:「这意味着我们需要政策上的体制改革,也需要重新检视我们的做法,其中一些有效,一些则没有。」</p>\n\n<p>华许今年 5 月才接掌 Fed,但他表示,上任短短 6 周以来,Fed 内部已出现「思维上的重大转变」,并开始推动至少涵盖 5 个货币政策层面的改革。</p>\n\n<p>为此,华许成立 5 个工作小组,分别检讨 Fed 的政策沟通、科技、资产负债表、使用的经济数据,以及评估通膨的方式。他将这些改革形容为 Fed 的「新篇章」,并表示目前正处于历史的关键转折点。</p>\n\n<p>华许说,Fed 的首要目标是尽可能制定正确的货币政策,这是央行明确且不变的方向。他强调:「如果我们把政策做对——而且我们会做到——过去 5 年的通膨飙升将成为历史。」</p>\n\n<p>华许也再次批评 Fed 过去采行的「弹性平均通膨目标制」(flexible average inflation targeting)。这项 2020 年推出的政策框架,允许通膨在一段时间低于 2% 目标后,暂时高于目标,以实现长期平均 2% 的通膨率。</p>\n\n<p>然而,华许认为,这项政策是一个错误。他表示,Fed 并非第一家希望多一点通膨、最后却得到更多通膨的央行,这套框架最终并未达成原定目标。</p>\n\n<p>自 2021 年以来,美国通膨持续高于 Fed 的 2% 目标。华许指出,持续偏高的物价已对美国家庭及企业造成不当负担。尽管每月价格波动无可避免,尤其是在全球局势动荡之际,但长期而言,潜在通膨主要仍由货币政策决定。</p>\n\n<p>在经济展望方面,华许表示,美国经济正以稳健步伐扩张,并在近期各项事件冲击下展现韧性。他特别将企业投资形容为当前经济环境中「最引人注目的特征」,其中 AI 相关投资尤其突出。</p>\n\n<p>华许指出,资料中心建设以及对 AI 相关设备与软体的庞大需求,正推动企业投资快速成长,而且这股趋势似乎仍在加速。他认为,虽然目前尚不清楚美国经济最终能从 AI 建设热潮中获得多大好处,但如今所谓的「AI 投资」,未来很可能就只是被视为一般的「投资」。</p>\n\n<p>华许先前曾表示,他预期 AI 带来的生产力提升最终将具有抑制通膨效果,不过这项观点仍受到部分经济学家及其他 Fed 官员质疑。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-2668.html\" title=\"小摩看好AI超级周期续强!点出下一波红利将流向「这里」\">小摩看好AI超级周期续强!点出下一波红利将流向「这里」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-2369.html\" title=\"SpaceX市值逼近3兆美元 但有一个致命缺口\">SpaceX市值逼近3兆美元 但有一个致命缺口</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4052.html\" title=\"科技股写下一年来最惨单周 AI热潮为何突然失速?\">科技股写下一年来最惨单周 AI热潮为何突然失速?</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-9913.html\" title=\"Situational Awareness基金断臂求生后 已花4亿美元重返投资市场\">Situational Awareness基金断臂求生后 已花4亿美元重返投资市场</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-14801.html\" title=\"格芯获美商务部3.75亿美元研发补助 携手Rigetti、Quantinuum打造美国量子晶片制造枢纽\">格芯获美商务部3.75亿美元研发补助 携手Rigetti、Quantinuum打造美国量子晶片制造枢纽</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4117.html\" title=\"AI之外的投资主线?美银揭2026中小型股「8大」潜力名单\">AI之外的投资主线?美银揭2026中小型股「8大」潜力名单</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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