《大卖空》贝瑞：市场已投票 AI烧钱模式不再受华尔街青睐

因成功放空美国次级房贷市场、被视为电影《大卖空》主角原型的传奇投资人麦可 · 贝瑞 (Michael Burry) 表示，华尔街对科技巨头大举投入人工智慧 (AI) 基础建设的态度已出现明显转变，市场正逐渐不再奖励高额资本支出，而是更加重视企业能否将 AI 投资转化为实际获利与报酬。

贝瑞周日在社群平台 X 引用《彭博》整理的市场数据指出，自 6 月初以来，多家投入 AI 资本支出最多的大型科技公司，股价表现均落后整体大盘，包括 Alphabet (GOOG-US)、Alphabet Class A (GOOGL-US)、亚马逊 (AMZN-US)、微软 (MSFT-US)、Meta Platforms (META-US) 及甲骨文 (ORCL-US)。

其中，Alphabet 成为表现最弱势的个股之一，尽管公司未来 12 个月预估资本支出居所有大型科技企业之冠，但股价仍明显落后大盘。相较之下，苹果 (AAPL-US) 在预期资本支出相对较低的情况下，股价反而跑赢整体市场。

贝瑞同时分享另一张图表指出，市场已开始重新调整大型 AI 概念股的估值水准。包括辉达 (NVDA-US)、微软、亚马逊、Alphabet 及 Meta Platforms 等企业，预估本益比 (Forward P/E) 均自近期高点回落，显示投资人正重新评估 AI 巨额投资是否能带来足够回报。

他并在贴文中直言：「市场已经投票，结果非常清楚。」

公司	近 1 个月	年初至今 (YTD)	近 1 年	预估本益比 (Forward P/E)
Alphabet Class A	下跌 9.59%	上涨 1.46%	上涨 66.03%	22.624
Alphabet Class C	下跌 9.16%	上涨 1.20%	上涨 64.97%	22.676
Microsoft	上涨 3.56%	下跌 19.29%	下跌 25.52%	19.724
NVIDIA	上涨 6.09%	上涨 9.53%	上涨 17.02%	23.585
Amazon.com	下跌 3.34%	上涨 2.48%	下跌 0.29%	27.397
Oracle	下跌 22.18%	下跌 41.24%	下跌 53.58%	14.225
Apple	上涨 18.20%	上涨 22.88%	上涨 55.58%	34.843

市场情绪转变也反映在追踪科技七雄 (Magnificent Seven) 的 ETF 表现。截至目前为止，Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS-US) 今年累计下跌 3.37%，明显落后 Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ-US) 同期 11.60% 的涨幅，显示投资人对过去主导市场涨势的 AI 大型科技股热情已有所降温。

不过，并非所有市场人士都认同贝瑞的看法。

知名创投人士 Chamath Palihapitiya 日前在 Alphabet 公布最新财报、股价大跌后，公开为公司扩大 AI 投资辩护。他在《All-In Podcast》节目中表示，Alphabet 数十年来持续创造优异的投入资本报酬率 (Return on Invested Capital)，管理团队已建立长期可信度，因此投资人应该给予管理层更多耐心与信任。

Palihapitiya 更形容 Alphabet 是一家「复利机器 (Compounding Machine)」，认为市场不应因短期资本支出增加而否定公司的长期竞争力，AI 投资未来仍有望带来可观回报。

股价方面，Alphabet Class A 股票上周五收涨 0.65%，收在 319.74 美元，周一盘前再上涨 1.56%；Alphabet Class C 股票上周五收涨 0.24%，收报 319.09 美元，盘前进一步上涨 1.51%，显示市场在经历财报后大幅修正后，买盘开始回流。

近期市场普遍认为，科技巨头第二季财报普遍仍维持稳健成长，但投资人关注焦点已由营收与获利，转向 AI 投资的资本支出规模、未来现金流及投资报酬率。若企业无法证明巨额 AI 投入能够转化为实际获利，相关个股评价仍可能持续面临修正压力。

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概念股评价正面临重新洗牌。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6547317/l/600cb64bdeb7547485bad2adbdf8ea59.jpg", "content": "<p>因成功放空美国次级房贷市场、被视为电影《大卖空》主角原型的传奇投资人麦可 · 贝瑞 (Michael Burry) 表示，华尔街对科技巨头大举投入人工智慧 (AI) 基础建设的态度已出现明显转变，市场正逐渐不再奖励高额资本支出，而是更加重视企业能否将 AI 投资转化为实际获利与报酬。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6547317/l/600cb64bdeb7547485bad2adbdf8ea59.jpg\" alt=\"《大卖空》贝瑞：市场已投票 AI烧钱模式不再受华尔街青睐\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>贝瑞周日在社群平台 X 引用《彭博》整理的市场数据指出，自 6 月初以来，多家投入 AI 资本支出最多的大型科技公司，股价表现均落后整体大盘，包括 Alphabet (GOOG-US)、Alphabet Class A (GOOGL-US)、亚马逊 (AMZN-US)、微软 (MSFT-US)、Meta Platforms (META-US) 及甲骨文 (ORCL-US)。</p>\n\n<p>其中，Alphabet 成为表现最弱势的个股之一，尽管公司未来 12 个月预估资本支出居所有大型科技企业之冠，但股价仍明显落后大盘。相较之下，苹果 (AAPL-US) 在预期资本支出相对较低的情况下，股价反而跑赢整体市场。</p>\n\n<p>贝瑞同时分享另一张图表指出，市场已开始重新调整大型 AI 概念股的估值水准。包括辉达 (NVDA-US)、微软、亚马逊、Alphabet 及 Meta Platforms 等企业，预估本益比 (Forward P/E) 均自近期高点回落，显示投资人正重新评估 AI 巨额投资是否能带来足够回报。</p>\n\n<p>他并在贴文中直言：「市场已经投票，结果非常清楚。」</p>\n\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>公司</th>\n<th>近 1 个月</th>\n<th>年初至今 (YTD)</th>\n<th> 近 1 年</th>\n<th>预估本益比 (Forward P/E)</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Alphabet Class A</td>\n<td> 下跌 9.59%</td>\n<td> 上涨 1.46%</td>\n<td> 上涨 66.03%</td>\n<td>22.624</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Alphabet Class C</td>\n<td> 下跌 9.16%</td>\n<td> 上涨 1.20%</td>\n<td> 上涨 64.97%</td>\n<td>22.676</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Microsoft</td>\n<td> 上涨 3.56%</td>\n<td> 下跌 19.29%</td>\n<td> 下跌 25.52%</td>\n<td>19.724</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>NVIDIA</td>\n<td> 上涨 6.09%</td>\n<td> 上涨 9.53%</td>\n<td> 上涨 17.02%</td>\n<td>23.585</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Amazon.com</td>\n<td> 下跌 3.34%</td>\n<td> 上涨 2.48%</td>\n<td> 下跌 0.29%</td>\n<td>27.397</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Oracle</td>\n<td> 下跌 22.18%</td>\n<td> 下跌 41.24%</td>\n<td> 下跌 53.58%</td>\n<td>14.225</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Apple</td>\n<td> 上涨 18.20%</td>\n<td> 上涨 22.88%</td>\n<td> 上涨 55.58%</td>\n<td>34.843</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n\n<p>市场情绪转变也反映在追踪科技七雄 (Magnificent Seven) 的 ETF 表现。截至目前为止，Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS-US) 今年累计下跌 3.37%，明显落后 Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ-US) 同期 11.60% 的涨幅，显示投资人对过去主导市场涨势的 AI 大型科技股热情已有所降温。</p>\n\n<p>不过，并非所有市场人士都认同贝瑞的看法。</p>\n\n<p>知名创投人士 Chamath Palihapitiya 日前在 Alphabet 公布最新财报、股价大跌后，公开为公司扩大 AI 投资辩护。他在《All-In Podcast》节目中表示，Alphabet 数十年来持续创造优异的投入资本报酬率 (Return on Invested Capital)，管理团队已建立长期可信度，因此投资人应该给予管理层更多耐心与信任。</p>\n\n<p>Palihapitiya 更形容 Alphabet 是一家「复利机器 (Compounding Machine)」，认为市场不应因短期资本支出增加而否定公司的长期竞争力，AI 投资未来仍有望带来可观回报。</p>\n\n<p>股价方面，Alphabet Class A 股票上周五收涨 0.65%，收在 319.74 美元，周一盘前再上涨 1.56%；Alphabet Class C 股票上周五收涨 0.24%，收报 319.09 美元，盘前进一步上涨 1.51%，显示市场在经历财报后大幅修正后，买盘开始回流。</p>\n\n<p>近期市场普遍认为，科技巨头第二季财报普遍仍维持稳健成长，但投资人关注焦点已由营收与获利，转向 AI 投资的资本支出规模、未来现金流及投资报酬率。若企业无法证明巨额 AI 投入能够转化为实际获利，相关个股评价仍可能持续面临修正压力。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-19064.html\" 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