台积电、鸿海非首选？非农暴冷引爆AI大轧空！ 10档翻倍黑马曝光

上周五美国公布的非农就业数据大暴冷，新增就业人数意外急冻远低于预期的 8 万人。但这个「坏消息」在华尔街眼里，却是天大的「超级好消息」！你看懂这场华尔街的「反直觉」大戏了吗？

理由很简单：因为市场现在看的不是「美国工作好不好找」，而是今年升息的机率大幅降低，突然间，整个市场发现利率上升的压力没有想像中大，资金成本下降，第一个反应就是重新追逐成长性最高、对利率最敏感的科技与 AI 资产。所以你将会看到，辉达、美光、AI 软体与半导体族群再次受到资金推升。

技术分析会说话：台股 48,000 点能不能挑战？
再来看台股，7 月台股历经剧烈震荡，这种行情最容易让散户犯一个错：就是「追高杀低」！看到跌就怕，看到涨又追。如果从技术面观察，这波行情最值得注意的不是一天涨几百点，而是月线能不能由下弯转为走平，再进一步翻扬。

而最重要的证据在道琼与标普身上。道琼与标普已领先那指和费半创下历史新高，指标之王 MACD 在月线上也没有任何背离。这意味着尚未创高的那斯达克、费半与台股，未来必定会跟随创下历史新高。研判台股这波关关难过关关过，所以我们可以大胆预言目标直指 48,000 点历史新高！但大家要记住：48,000 点是「情境目标」，不是保证会到达的数字。

春江水暖鸭先知：真正的大行情，永远从筹码集中开始！
选股部分：现在很多投资人最焦虑的是：「第一波我没买，现在是不是来不及了？」我的答案是：「不一定」。因为多头行情真正走完之前，通常不会只有一波。但第二波行情的玩法，跟第一波完全不同。

第一波可以靠全面反弹推升；到了第二波，市场会开始挑公司。谁有订单？谁的营收正在加速？谁的 EPS 真的能成长？谁的外资、投信、大户正在增加持股？这才是接下来真正重要的问题。所以真正的大行情，永远从筹码集中开始。锁定大户、外资、投信个动作：只要大资金动向对了，我们就能轻松掌握获利密码。

以下这 10 档，都是 AI 趋势明确、未来营收持续成长、EPS 有爆发力、且筹码开始集中的精选标的。

外资锁码：强势领航

至上 (8112-TW)：身为台湾最大三星半导体代理商，至上受惠 AI 伺服器高频宽记忆体（HBM）与 SSD 需求大增。在记忆体超级循环下，通路利基显著，营收与获利成长性极强，深获外资锁码。
所罗门 (2359-TW)：辉达执行长黄仁勋钦点合作伙伴，所罗门主打 AI 3D 视觉与机器人开发。受惠智慧制造与自动化浪潮，其工业 AI 软体利基稳固，未来具备极高的 EPS 爆发力。
联钧 (3450-TW)：联钧卡位 CPO 矽光子封装，美系客户防资安外泄排除陆系零组件，使其具备强大的转单利基。下半年高阶产能开出，营收获利成长惊人，外资积极锁码。

投信锁码：波段重仓

强茂 (2481-TW)：二极体龙头强茂，积极切入车用与工控等高毛利市场。受惠 AI 伺服器电源管理对中高压功率元件需求，获利结构显著改善，EPS 成长性佳，获投信锁码。
臻鼎 - KY(4958-TW)：全球 PCB 龙头臻鼎 - KY，除了苹果新机拉货效应外，更卡位 AI 伺服器板与高阶 ABF 载板。稼动率攀升与高传输需求爆发，下半年获利看俏，吸引投信锁码。

大户锁码：主力狂吸

联亚 (3081-TW)：联亚为矽光子雷射晶片关键厂商，营收屡创新高。美股新上市光通讯 ETF(LYTE-US) 预示光互连时代起飞，频宽效能增十倍，大户锁码大举买进。
盟立 (2464-TW)：智能物流龙头盟立切入 CoWoS 先进封装自动化设备。受惠台积电(2330-TW) 等大厂大举扩产，半导体自动化设备出货迎来黄金期，大户筹码低位集中，基本面成长性十足。
十铨 (4967-TW)：记忆体模组大厂十铨受惠 AI PC 与 AI 手机规格升级需求。日前辉达降规 HBM 仅是供应链产能调配的假利空（实为太缺货的工程折衷），十铨具备低价库存优势，上涨潜力大。
华星光 (4979-TW)：华星光 7 月营收创历史新高，宣告 CPO 迈向量产与营收验证期。与美系大厂合作紧密，高频传输升级利基难以替代，大户大举吸筹，股价上涨爆发力极强。
泛铨 (6830-TW)：材料分析龙头泛铨，稳卡先进制程与矽光子检测。半导体制程愈进步检测需求愈大，高技术壁垒造就超高毛利，未来 EPS 爆发力强，为大户锁码的核心飙股。

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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软体与半导体族群再次受到资金推升。技术分析会说话：台股 48,000 点能不", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6567521/m/041419ccad76d38235f2096f3502b78c.jpg", "content": "上周五美国公布的非农就业数据大暴冷，新增就业人数意外急冻远低于预期的 8 万人。但这个「坏消息」在华尔街眼里，却是天大的「超级好消息」！你看懂这场华尔街的「反直觉」大戏了吗？\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6567521/m/041419ccad76d38235f2096f3502b78c.jpg\" alt=\"台积电、鸿海非首选？非农暴冷引爆AI大轧空！ 10档翻倍黑马曝光\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n理由很简单：因为市场现在看的不是「美国工作好不好找」，而是今年升息的机率大幅降低，突然间，整个市场发现利率上升的压力没有想像中大，资金成本下降，第一个反应就是重新追逐成长性最高、对利率最敏感的科技与 AI 资产。所以你将会看到，辉达、美光、AI 软体与半导体族群再次受到资金推升。\n\n技术分析会说话：台股 48,000 点能不能挑战？ \n再来看台股，7 月台股历经剧烈震荡，这种行情最容易让散户犯一个错：就是「追高杀低」！看到跌就怕，看到涨又追。如果从技术面观察，这波行情最值得注意的不是一天涨几百点，而是月线能不能由下弯转为走平，再进一步翻扬。\n\n而最重要的证据在道琼与标普身上。道琼与标普已领先那指和费半创下历史新高，指标之王 MACD 在月线上也没有任何背离。这意味着尚未创高的那斯达克、费半与台股，未来必定会跟随创下历史新高。研判台股这波关关难过关关过，所以我们可以大胆预言目标直指 48,000 点历史新高！但大家要记住：48,000 点是「情境目标」，不是保证会到达的数字。\n\n春江水暖鸭先知：真正的大行情，永远从筹码集中开始！ \n选股部分：现在很多投资人最焦虑的是：「第一波我没买，现在是不是来不及了？」我的答案是：「不一定」。因为多头行情真正走完之前，通常不会只有一波。但第二波行情的玩法，跟第一波完全不同。\n\n第一波可以靠全面反弹推升；到了第二波，市场会开始挑公司。谁有订单？谁的营收正在加速？谁的 EPS 真的能成长？谁的外资、投信、大户正在增加持股？这才是接下来真正重要的问题。所以真正的大行情，永远从筹码集中开始。锁定大户、外资、投信个动作：只要大资金动向对了，我们就能轻松掌握获利密码。\n\n以下这 10 档，都是 AI 趋势明确、未来营收持续成长、EPS 有爆发力、且筹码开始集中的精选标的。\n\n外资锁码：强势领航\n\n<ul>\n<li>至上 (8112-TW)：身为台湾最大三星半导体代理商，至上受惠 AI 伺服器高频宽记忆体（HBM）与 SSD 需求大增。在记忆体超级循环下，通路利基显著，营收与获利成长性极强，深获外资锁码。 </li>\n<li>所罗门 (2359-TW)：辉达执行长黄仁勋钦点合作伙伴，所罗门主打 AI 3D 视觉与机器人开发。受惠智慧制造与自动化浪潮，其工业 AI 软体利基稳固，未来具备极高的 EPS 爆发力。</li>\n<li>联钧 (3450-TW)：联钧卡位 CPO 矽光子封装，美系客户防资安外泄排除陆系零组件，使其具备强大的转单利基。下半年高阶产能开出，营收获利成长惊人，外资积极锁码。 </li>\n</ul>\n\n投信锁码：波段重仓\n\n<ul>\n<li>强茂 (2481-TW)：二极体龙头强茂，积极切入车用与工控等高毛利市场。受惠 AI 伺服器电源管理对中高压功率元件需求，获利结构显著改善，EPS 成长性佳，获投信锁码。 </li>\n<li>臻鼎 - KY(4958-TW)：全球 PCB 龙头臻鼎 - KY，除了苹果新机拉货效应外，更卡位 AI 伺服器板与高阶 ABF 载板。稼动率攀升与高传输需求爆发，下半年获利看俏，吸引投信锁码。</li>\n</ul>\n\n大户锁码：主力狂吸\n\n<ul>\n<li>联亚 (3081-TW)：联亚为矽光子雷射晶片关键厂商，营收屡创新高。美股新上市光通讯 ETF(LYTE-US) 预示光互连时代起飞，频宽效能增十倍，大户锁码大举买进。</li>\n<li>盟立 (2464-TW)：智能物流龙头盟立切入 CoWoS 先进封装自动化设备。受惠台积电(2330-TW) 等大厂大举扩产，半导体自动化设备出货迎来黄金期，大户筹码低位集中，基本面成长性十足。</li>\n<li>十铨 (4967-TW)：记忆体模组大厂十铨受惠 AI PC 与 AI 手机规格升级需求。日前辉达降规 HBM 仅是供应链产能调配的假利空（实为太缺货的工程折衷），十铨具备低价库存优势，上涨潜力大。 </li>\n<li>华星光 (4979-TW)：华星光 7 月营收创历史新高，宣告 CPO 迈向量产与营收验证期。与美系大厂合作紧密，高频传输升级利基难以替代，大户大举吸筹，股价上涨爆发力极强。</li>\n<li>泛铨 (6830-TW)：材料分析龙头泛铨，稳卡先进制程与矽光子检测。半导体制程愈进步检测需求愈大，高技术壁垒造就超高毛利，未来 EPS 爆发力强，为大户锁码的核心飙股。 </li>\n</ul>\n\n更多产业趋势报告 + 盘中讯息→请加入江江 Line@：\n\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ\">https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ</a>\n\n江江每日解盘影片→含金量满满，节目内容太精彩 + 太权威惹！\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/dXdQ2craXwk\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n坚持用心制作优质好节目，一定要看到最后！ \n并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 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