《价值型投资最新产业研究报告》国巨 (2327-TW)、华新科 (2492-TW) AI推升订单出货比，被动元件涨价循环升温

庆龙老师帮大家避开被动元件大回档的风险，同时提醒首度接回的时机，这段时间也持续追踪基本面变化。从关键的 B/B Ratio 订单出货比，到最新营收与报价讯号，今天利多出来后该怎么看？一起来研究国巨 (2327-TW) 与华新科 (2492-TW) 的关键报告。

营收已经先走出来。国巨 (2327-TW) 7 月营收 161.31 亿元，月增 5%、年增 51.5%，连续第五个月改写单月新高；前七月累计 987.53 亿元，年增 32.5%，逼近千亿元。华新科 (2492-TW) 7 月营收 44.44 亿元，月增 12.2%、年增 41.95%，创近 93 个月新高；前七月累计 253.72 亿元，年增 18.66%。两家公司同时出现月增、年增，这波需求已反映在实际出货。

B/B Ratio 是接单金额除以出货金额。数字高于 1，代表新订单大于当期出货，手上待交订单继续累积。第二季产业追踪资料显示，国巨 (2327-TW) 的 B/B Ratio 升到 2.20，华新科 (2492-TW) 约 1.80；三星电机与太阳诱电约 1.72，村田约 1.34。各家公司揭露范围与产品口径不完全相同，不能只拿单一数字直接比较获利，但全部高于 1，方向很清楚：AI 带动的高阶 MLCC 需求正在挤压可用产能。

国巨 (2327-TW) 的优势在产品组合。除了积层陶瓷电容与晶片电阻，集团还有钽质电容、磁性元件与感测器，可供应 AI 伺服器电源、运算与液冷系统。一般品产能利用率已超过八成，特殊品超过九成，AI 应用的订单出货比又高于公司平均。高阶产品占比拉高后，营收成长不只靠出货量，产品单价与毛利率也有往上走的条件。

华新科 (2492-TW) 的变化更直接。公司订单能见度已看到年底，部分产品延伸到明年，管理层也明确表达涨价势在必行。代理商价格已先调整，直接客户会在第 3 季、第 4 季陆续议价，范围涵盖晶片电阻与部分 MLCC。法人机构推估，AI 相关应用今年营收占比可能提高到 15% 至 20%，高容值、高可靠度产品放量，将改善过去较偏标准品的产品结构。

供给端短时间很难追上。华新科 (2492-TW) 今年规画约 40 亿元资本支出，既有厂房已预留空间，可缩短新增设备的量产时间，也在评估赴美设厂。MLCC 设备交期约半年至一年，新产能从装机、认证到稳定生产仍需要时间。客户为了确保供货，会提早下单与争取配额，这正是订单出货比持续高于 1、报价开始上调的背景。

国巨 (2327-TW) 与华新科 (2492-TW) 吃到同一波被动元件景气，定位仍有差异。国巨 (2327-TW) 全球产品线较完整，高阶与特殊品比重高，能直接承接 AI 伺服器、工业与车用需求；华新科 (2492-TW) 对 MLCC 与晶片电阻景气的敏感度较高，产能吃紧与涨价落实时，营运弹性更明显。两家公司 7 月营收同步创高，说明产业复苏已从订单数据走到营收。

接下来就看涨价由通路端扩散到直接客户，以及新产能何时开始贡献。国巨 (2327-TW) 连续五个月营收创高，AI 与特殊品仍是主要推力；华新科 (2492-TW) 有订单能见度、扩产与报价调整接棒。B/B Ratio 维持高档，代表手上需求还没有被当期出货消化完，被动元件这一轮成长仍有基本面支撑。想第一时间知道哪些股票可以逢低进场，请先加入庆龙老师官方 LINE，搜寻 @ai8085，或点击下方连结。每天盘中还有免费 CALL 讯，带你掌握可以留意的强势股。

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文章来源: 蔡庆龙分析师 - 摩尔投顾

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51.5%，连续第五个月改写单月新高；前七月累计 987.53 亿元，年增 32.5%，逼近千亿元。华新科 (2492-TW) 7 月营收 44", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6570586/l/5f7ad98f58def7a11845728c0ea5ace7.jpg", "content": "<p>庆龙老师帮大家避开被动元件大回档的风险，同时提醒首度接回的时机，这段时间也持续追踪基本面变化。从关键的 B/B Ratio 订单出货比，到最新营收与报价讯号，今天利多出来后该怎么看？一起来研究国巨 (2327-TW) 与华新科 (2492-TW) 的关键报告。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6570586/l/5f7ad98f58def7a11845728c0ea5ace7.jpg\" alt=\"《价值型投资最新产业研究报告》国巨 (2327-TW)、华新科 (2492-TW) AI推升订单出货比，被动元件涨价循环升温\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>营收已经先走出来。国巨 (2327-TW) 7 月营收 161.31 亿元，月增 5%、年增 51.5%，连续第五个月改写单月新高；前七月累计 987.53 亿元，年增 32.5%，逼近千亿元。华新科 (2492-TW) 7 月营收 44.44 亿元，月增 12.2%、年增 41.95%，创近 93 个月新高；前七月累计 253.72 亿元，年增 18.66%。两家公司同时出现月增、年增，这波需求已反映在实际出货。</p>\n\n<p>B/B Ratio 是接单金额除以出货金额。数字高于 1，代表新订单大于当期出货，手上待交订单继续累积。第二季产业追踪资料显示，国巨 (2327-TW) 的 B/B Ratio 升到 2.20，华新科 (2492-TW) 约 1.80；三星电机与太阳诱电约 1.72，村田约 1.34。各家公司揭露范围与产品口径不完全相同，不能只拿单一数字直接比较获利，但全部高于 1，方向很清楚：AI 带动的高阶 MLCC 需求正在挤压可用产能。</p>\n\n<p>国巨 (2327-TW) 的优势在产品组合。除了积层陶瓷电容与晶片电阻，集团还有钽质电容、磁性元件与感测器，可供应 AI 伺服器电源、运算与液冷系统。一般品产能利用率已超过八成，特殊品超过九成，AI 应用的订单出货比又高于公司平均。高阶产品占比拉高后，营收成长不只靠出货量，产品单价与毛利率也有往上走的条件。</p>\n\n<p>华新科 (2492-TW) 的变化更直接。公司订单能见度已看到年底，部分产品延伸到明年，管理层也明确表达涨价势在必行。代理商价格已先调整，直接客户会在第 3 季、第 4 季陆续议价，范围涵盖晶片电阻与部分 MLCC。法人机构推估，AI 相关应用今年营收占比可能提高到 15% 至 20%，高容值、高可靠度产品放量，将改善过去较偏标准品的产品结构。</p>\n\n<p>供给端短时间很难追上。华新科 (2492-TW) 今年规画约 40 亿元资本支出，既有厂房已预留空间，可缩短新增设备的量产时间，也在评估赴美设厂。MLCC 设备交期约半年至一年，新产能从装机、认证到稳定生产仍需要时间。客户为了确保供货，会提早下单与争取配额，这正是订单出货比持续高于 1、报价开始上调的背景。</p>\n\n<p>国巨 (2327-TW) 与华新科 (2492-TW) 吃到同一波被动元件景气，定位仍有差异。国巨 (2327-TW) 全球产品线较完整，高阶与特殊品比重高，能直接承接 AI 伺服器、工业与车用需求；华新科 (2492-TW) 对 MLCC 与晶片电阻景气的敏感度较高，产能吃紧与涨价落实时，营运弹性更明显。两家公司 7 月营收同步创高，说明产业复苏已从订单数据走到营收。</p>\n\n<p>接下来就看涨价由通路端扩散到直接客户，以及新产能何时开始贡献。国巨 (2327-TW) 连续五个月营收创高，AI 与特殊品仍是主要推力；华新科 (2492-TW) 有订单能见度、扩产与报价调整接棒。B/B Ratio 维持高档，代表手上需求还没有被当期出货消化完，被动元件这一轮成长仍有基本面支撑。想第一时间知道哪些股票可以逢低进场，请先加入庆龙老师官方 LINE，搜寻 @ai8085，或点击下方连结。每天盘中还有免费 CALL 讯，带你掌握可以留意的强势股。</p>\n\n<p>「价值型投资」最新盘后解盘节目</p>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/n6PdSm0eMUc\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"537\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.415270018621974\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6570586/m/ca8dac16651e936df32d558c6d471e55.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6570586/l/ca8dac16651e936df32d558c6d471e55.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6570586/l/ca8dac16651e936df32d558c6d471e55.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6570586/xl/ca8dac16651e936df32d558c6d471e55.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6570586/xxl/ca8dac16651e936df32d558c6d471e55.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n<p>每天二 + 一则免费 CALL 讯</p>\n\n<p>加入价值型投资 LINE 官方帐号: <a href=\"https://lin.ee/3rueKmz\">https://lin.ee/3rueKmz</a></p>\n\n<p>文章来源: 蔡庆龙分析师 - 摩尔投顾</p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券<br>\n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利<br>\n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4326.html\" title=\"AI棒球赛才到第三局！刘宗圣、胡睿涵看台股：高档筹码清洗、留意二次通膨\">AI棒球赛才到第三局！刘宗圣、胡睿涵看台股：高档筹码清洗、留意二次通膨</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11915.html\" title=\"AI带动成长广运在手订单已达66.6亿元以半导体占比成长最高\">AI带动成长广运在手订单已达66.6亿元以半导体占比成长最高</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6378.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 天品(6199)6月营收7,636万元年增率高达476.98％\">营收速报 - 天品(6199)6月营收7,636万元年增率高达476.98％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6731.html\" title=\"〈台塑集团调薪〉台塑企业启动「有感升级」大规模加薪新进员工起薪创近10年最高调幅\">〈台塑集团调薪〉台塑企业启动「有感升级」大规模加薪新进员工起薪创近10年最高调幅</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2373.html\" title=\"亚弘电订单能见度不弱 3.1元股息敲定8/5除息交易\">亚弘电订单能见度不弱 3.1元股息敲定8/5除息交易</a></li>\n <li><a 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