【辉达太狂！】财报财测双超预期！AI主流全面回归？

美股周三在辉达财报公布前维持高档震荡，道琼下跌113点、跌0.21％，标普500小跌0.02％，那斯达克下跌0.08％，费半反而上涨0.20％，真正影响市场的是美国7月PCE年增3.7％、略高于市场预期3.6％，核心PCE年增3.3％则符合预期，让市场重新提高对Fed升息的戒心，美国10年债殖利率也回升至4.65％附近；不过真正的大消息在盘后，辉达第二季营收962.2亿美元、EPS 2.22美元全面优于预期，第三季营收财测更上看1080亿美元，高于市场预估1042亿美元，资料中心营收890亿美元、年增117％，黄仁勋更表示AI已经来到转折点，公司预估2028会计年度营收成长70％，远高于市场原本预期约45％，带动辉达盘后一度大涨5％。财报公布后，美国股指期货全面转强，那斯达克100期货一度上涨近1％，标普500期货涨约0.6％、道琼期货涨约0.5％，代表市场对这份财报的第一时间反应偏正面。技术面来看，标普仍稳守7600点以上、距离历史高点不远，科技股也已连续数日没有再破底，只要辉达今天美股现货开盘后能守住财报利多，科技股很有机会重新挑战前高。

台股昨天则已经提前表态，加权指数开低走高大涨663点、收45832点，一口气站回所有均线，成交量也由前几天6000多亿元放大至8042亿元，最重要的是外资大买365.98亿元、三大法人合计买超593.87亿元，外资期货空单也回补1659口，代表现货、期货筹码同步改善；台积电(2330-TW)上涨至2415元，联发科(2454)大涨5.6％、台达电(2308-TW)上涨2％，鸿海(2317-TW)也同步收红。从技术面来看，台股连续6天测试45000点都没有真正跌破，昨天更直接带量长红突破短期均线，这就是非常典型的「利空不跌、利多一来就喷」讯号，今天再加上辉达财报与财测全面优于预期，46000点很有机会再次挑战；如果台积电、鸿海、台达电、台光电等AI权值股同步发动，突破46000点后，市场原本担心的「量缩」问题自然就会消失。不过昨天已经大涨663点，今天若直接开高太多不要急着追，我认为台股多头格局不但没有结束，经过这波震荡洗盘后筹码反而更加干净，策略为不要过度追高，选还没起涨的绩优好股票。

个股方面，今天第一主线毫无疑问就是AI伺服器＋散热＋CPO高速传输。辉达资料中心营收年增117％、第三季营收财测再超预期，而且公司直言AI基础建设需求持续攀升、即使扩产仍无法满足全部需求，这对台湾AI供应链就是最直接的基本面利多。AI伺服器可持续观察纬颖(6669)、鸿海(2317-TW)、纬创(3231-TW)，其中纬颖昨天已冲上6925元再创历史新高，上半年EPS达156.38元，法人也看好AWS Trainium3与水冷机柜持续放量；散热可锁定奇𬭎(3017-TW)、健策(3653-TW)、双鸿(3324)，因为Rubin平台功耗持续提高，液冷与高阶散热渗透率只会越来越高。另外我更重视CPO与矽光子，力成(6239-TW)最新宣布采Micro-Bump技术的CPO光引擎有机会今年底送客户验证、明年进入量产，代表CPO开始从题材走向实际营收，可持续观察联亚(3081-TW)、全新(2455-TW)、IET-KY(4971-TW)、光圣(6442-TW)、上诠(3363-TW)、波若威(3163-TW)、联钧(3450-TW)，加上力成(6239-TW)本身。今天最大的重点不是看到辉达财报好就全部追高，而是确认哪一批股票在利多公布后能「强恒强」；真正最强的股票通常不会等大盘创高才发动，昨天已经率先创高、今天又有基本面加持的AI伺服器、散热、CPO，就是我最想持续追踪的三大主流。

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"<p>美股周三在辉达财报公布前维持高档震荡，道琼下跌113点、跌0.21％，标普500小跌0.02％，那斯达克下跌0.08％，费半反而上涨0.20％，真正影响市场的是美国7月PCE年增3.7％、略高于市场预期3.6％，核心PCE年增3.3％则符合预期，让市场重新提高对Fed升息的戒心，美国10年债殖利率也回升至4.65％附近；不过真正的大消息在盘后，辉达第二季营收962.2亿美元、EPS 2.22美元全面优于预期，第三季营收财测更上看1080亿美元，高于市场预估1042亿美元，资料中心营收890亿美元、年增117％，黄仁勋更表示AI已经来到转折点，公司预估2028会计年度营收成长70％，远高于市场原本预期约45％，带动辉达盘后一度大涨5％。财报公布后，美国股指期货全面转强，那斯达克100期货一度上涨近1％，标普500期货涨约0.6％、道琼期货涨约0.5％，代表市场对这份财报的第一时间反应偏正面。技术面来看，标普仍稳守7600点以上、距离历史高点不远，科技股也已连续数日没有再破底，只要辉达今天美股现货开盘后能守住财报利多，科技股很有机会重新挑战前高。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6588401/l/4693373367fef85a761d5592a216401c.jpg\" alt=\"【辉达太狂！】财报财测双超预期！AI主流全面回归？\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>台股昨天则已经提前表态，加权指数开低走高大涨663点、收45832点，一口气站回所有均线，成交量也由前几天6000多亿元放大至8042亿元，最重要的是外资大买365.98亿元、三大法人合计买超593.87亿元，外资期货空单也回补1659口，代表现货、期货筹码同步改善；台积电(2330-TW)上涨至2415元，联发科(2454)大涨5.6％、台达电(2308-TW)上涨2％，鸿海(2317-TW)也同步收红。从技术面来看，台股连续6天测试45000点都没有真正跌破，昨天更直接带量长红突破短期均线，这就是非常典型的「利空不跌、利多一来就喷」讯号，今天再加上辉达财报与财测全面优于预期，46000点很有机会再次挑战；如果台积电、鸿海、台达电、台光电等AI权值股同步发动，突破46000点后，市场原本担心的「量缩」问题自然就会消失。不过昨天已经大涨663点，今天若直接开高太多不要急着追，我认为台股多头格局不但没有结束，经过这波震荡洗盘后筹码反而更加干净，策略为不要过度追高，选还没起涨的绩优好股票。</p>\n\n<p>个股方面，今天第一主线毫无疑问就是AI伺服器＋散热＋CPO高速传输。辉达资料中心营收年增117％、第三季营收财测再超预期，而且公司直言AI基础建设需求持续攀升、即使扩产仍无法满足全部需求，这对台湾AI供应链就是最直接的基本面利多。AI伺服器可持续观察纬颖(6669)、鸿海(2317-TW)、纬创(3231-TW)，其中纬颖昨天已冲上6925元再创历史新高，上半年EPS达156.38元，法人也看好AWS Trainium3与水冷机柜持续放量；散热可锁定奇𬭎(3017-TW)、健策(3653-TW)、双鸿(3324)，因为Rubin平台功耗持续提高，液冷与高阶散热渗透率只会越来越高。另外我更重视CPO与矽光子，力成(6239-TW)最新宣布采Micro-Bump技术的CPO光引擎有机会今年底送客户验证、明年进入量产，代表CPO开始从题材走向实际营收，可持续观察联亚(3081-TW)、全新(2455-TW)、IET-KY(4971-TW)、光圣(6442-TW)、上诠(3363-TW)、波若威(3163-TW)、联钧(3450-TW)，加上力成(6239-TW)本身。今天最大的重点不是看到辉达财报好就全部追高，而是确认哪一批股票在利多公布后能「强恒强」；真正最强的股票通常不会等大盘创高才发动，昨天已经率先创高、今天又有基本面加持的AI伺服器、散热、CPO，就是我最想持续追踪的三大主流。</p>\n\n<p>➤鼎极操盘手何基鼎 LINE 粉丝团</p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://lin.ee/iuxMCJU\">https://lin.ee/iuxMCJU</a></p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券<br>\n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利<br>\n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2150.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 富裔(6264)5月营收2,175万元年增率高达226.07％\">营收速报 - 富裔(6264)5月营收2,175万元年增率高达226.07％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10167.html\" title=\"散户都在怕量缩，我却看到台股准备变盘的讯号\">散户都在怕量缩，我却看到台股准备变盘的讯号</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9439.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 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