市场错读华许演讲！聪明人默默收筹码，假利空拉回买这产业！？

联准会主席华许在全球央行年会首度演说，被市场偏向鹰派解读，主要的原因在于其明确表示联准会政策是通膨朝2%的目标迈进。

联准会7月底利率会议后，华许会后发表偏向鸽派的言论，导致市场担忧通膨失控风险提升，美国长债殖利率开始走高，短债与长债的利差急遽飙升。而上周五华许发言之后，长债殖利率虽稍有提升，但长短天期殖利率差距反而缩小，因此，有投资机构认为这次发言是针对7月底的修正，并非华许真的转向鹰派。

投资朋友应该留意，现任联准会主席华许与前任鲍尔的做法最大差异，就是取消『联准会前瞻指引』，让利率交由『市场与数据』决定。既然联准会不指引市场未来利率方向，且是华许自己推动的政策，华许就更不会在全球央行年会上指引联准会偏鹰走向，毕竟华许也没明确支持9月升息。在市场与数据决定方向之下，下周公布8月PPI与CPI指数，将是9月联准会会议前最重要的经济数据。

频道连结https://www.youtube.com/@money66868

目前联准会实质上正在进行缩表(持有公债与MBS到期不再投资)的量化紧缩政策，联准会总资产占美国GDP的比例，在2020年疫情爆发之后高速成长，至2021年一度高达37%，目前占美国GDP的比重降至21%，但其间美股依然创新高，而推动美股创新高的是企业获利的成长。

昨日(8/31)受到联准会9月升息预期影响，亚洲股市拉回，跌幅甚至高于上周五(8/28)美股三大指数，市场受到华许偏鹰派假消息影响拉回，反而是新切入的机会。

美国三十年期国债殖利率一度创下近二十年新高，导致财政部部长贝森特推出财政部版的扭转操作(QT)，市场变相紧缩，联准会升息的必要性降低，而对于股市来说，企业获利与科技创新才是支持股市上涨的动力。

辉达新一代Vera Rubin平台已经开始量产，并且预计Q4显著放量，2027年将成为主力产品。Vera Rubin平台将推动CPO渗透率提升；100%采用全液冷散热；高阶M8、M9材料与PCB层数增加等等，相关可留意的供应链如下。

昨日又收长下影线，每次假消息导致市场拉回，就有人低接筹码，筹码越洗越干净，等到开始波段回升时，才发现又错过买点！

只有看得懂产业与市场格局，才会在市场拉回的时候提醒大家好买点，8/25时提醒投资朋友回测月线支撑好买点，现在再度提醒投资朋友，假利空拉回是买点。

不想错过的投资朋友，加入我的行列，可先加入https://user225916.pse.is/money668并私讯【金融家】

Vera Rubin平台绩优股如下：

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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