9月FOMC整体中性偏空解读，短期反弹主因其实是油价

利率决议:升息1码
◎Fed Fund Rate目标区间由3.50%～3.75%调升一码至3.75%～4.00%，为2023年7月以来首次升息

→本次升息1码已经于上周通膨数据公布后提前反应，各大预测市场与利率市场都已经price in，此非分析重点

◎投票组成：12票全数赞成，相比于前次决议是9票赞成3票反对。显示本次委员会对「金融条件不具限制性、通膨改善不足」已形成共识，从点阵图(下方分析)来看也有所收敛，显示内部分歧改善
→此处的分歧收敛与改善，指的是莫名鸽派/鹰派的官员接受现实，尤其是愈趋于短线的决策，愈会恢复理性，例如先前不断唱鸽的米兰，也是在利率不变的内部共识下，才敢高喊降息作为倡议与意见表达，但当升息已成预期，且最新数据难堪，再投反对票或强硬反对的意义不大，真正的鸽派或认为通膨非黏性，应当是在点阵图表态，这也是事前一再强调点阵图更重要的原因。
本次会后声明措辞变化：删除7月份「部分反映能源供应冲击，队特定价格的上涨」，只保留「通膨仍然偏高」，并新增「今日的政策行动有助于通膨更及时(timelier)回到2%目标」。显示FED并不再只把通膨归因于油价造成的供给面冲击，暗示需求面未降温，带动通膨黏性的全面性
点阵图上移且收敛:
相对笔者事前预期，2026偏鹰2027符合预期

短天期反应升息预期，长天期反映通膨数据:
对于资金行情，长债消极防守、短债一波上攻大幅消化升息预期，后续几周反而不必太悲观，

从上述的分析与整理，会认为对于升息预期或通膨影响的观点仅是更延长一些，但仍没有长到改变长线观点与通膨目标(相较今年3月美伊战争、6月华许上任即是关键转折)，因此就笔者的观点，本次点阵图的改变并没有带来决定性的新进展，因为升息的步伐预期持续至明年中，而从总计升息2码改变为升息3码，只差在幅度的推升而已。

FED观察数据而做行动，仍然是通膨数据定胜负，所谓就业数据(非农/初领失业救济金)都是次要的数据，不需太过浪费时间观察与提心吊胆，通膨数据落在当月第2周，专注于此即可，这点是今年初以来，笔者不断强调的观点。所谓资金行情/殖利率折现，后续几周至下个CPI前，反而冲击预期趋缓。

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"listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 16712, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "9月FOMC整体中性偏空解读，短期反弹主因其实是油价", "shortTitle": "9月FOMC整体中性偏空解读，短期反弹主因其实是油价", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "利率决议:升息1码 ◎Fed Fund Rate目标区间由3.50%～3.75%调升一码至3.75%～4.00%，为2023年7月以来首次升息 →本次升息1码已经于上周通膨数据公布后提前反应，各大预测市场与利率市场都已经price in，此非分析重点 ◎投票组成：12票全数赞成，相比于前次决议是9票赞成3票反对。显示本次委员会对「金融条件不具限制性、通膨改善不足」已形成共识，从点阵图(下方分析)来看也有所收敛，显示内部分歧改善 →此处的分歧收敛与改善，指的是莫名鸽派/鹰派的官", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/l/f5b6c3dbcf68b9064bfddbec9a79cd09.jpg", "content": "利率决议:升息1码 \n◎Fed Fund Rate目标区间由3.50%～3.75%调升一码至3.75%～4.00%，为2023年7月以来首次升息\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/l/f5b6c3dbcf68b9064bfddbec9a79cd09.jpg\" alt=\"9月FOMC整体中性偏空解读，短期反弹主因其实是油价\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n→本次升息1码已经于上周通膨数据公布后提前反应，各大预测市场与利率市场都已经price in，此非分析重点\n\n◎投票组成：12票全数赞成，相比于前次决议是9票赞成3票反对。显示本次委员会对「金融条件不具限制性、通膨改善不足」已形成共识，从点阵图(下方分析)来看也有所收敛，显示内部分歧改善 \n→此处的分歧收敛与改善，指的是莫名鸽派/鹰派的官员接受现实，尤其是愈趋于短线的决策，愈会恢复理性，例如先前不断唱鸽的米兰，也是在利率不变的内部共识下，才敢高喊降息作为倡议与意见表达，但当升息已成预期，且最新数据难堪，再投反对票或强硬反对的意义不大，真正的鸽派或认为通膨非黏性，应当是在点阵图表态，这也是事前一再强调点阵图更重要的原因。 \n本次会后声明措辞变化：删除7月份「部分反映能源供应冲击，队特定价格的上涨」，只保留「通膨仍然偏高」，并新增「今日的政策行动有助于通膨更及时(timelier)回到2%目标」。显示FED并不再只把通膨归因于油价造成的供给面冲击，暗示需求面未降温，带动通膨黏性的全面性 \n点阵图上移且收敛: \n相对笔者事前预期，2026偏鹰2027符合预期\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"324\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"2.345679012345679\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/m/af6042fa31d37d2a65d27cc2b22b391a.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/l/af6042fa31d37d2a65d27cc2b22b391a.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/l/af6042fa31d37d2a65d27cc2b22b391a.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/xl/af6042fa31d37d2a65d27cc2b22b391a.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/xl/af6042fa31d37d2a65d27cc2b22b391a.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"246\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"3.089430894308943\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/m/05b338712a5efedecd0ad3f8394495d5.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/l/05b338712a5efedecd0ad3f8394495d5.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/l/05b338712a5efedecd0ad3f8394495d5.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/xl/05b338712a5efedecd0ad3f8394495d5.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/xl/05b338712a5efedecd0ad3f8394495d5.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n短天期反应升息预期，长天期反映通膨数据: \n对于资金行情，长债消极防守、短债一波上攻大幅消化升息预期，后续几周反而不必太悲观，\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"274\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"2.7737226277372264\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/m/38368cd9005231e431830e916bc57838.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/l/38368cd9005231e431830e916bc57838.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/l/38368cd9005231e431830e916bc57838.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/xl/38368cd9005231e431830e916bc57838.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/xl/38368cd9005231e431830e916bc57838.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n从上述的分析与整理，会认为对于升息预期或通膨影响的观点仅是更延长一些，但仍没有长到改变长线观点与通膨目标(相较今年3月美伊战争、6月华许上任即是关键转折)，因此就笔者的观点，本次点阵图的改变并没有带来决定性的新进展，因为升息的步伐预期持续至明年中，而从总计升息2码改变为升息3码，只差在幅度的推升而已。\n\nFED观察数据而做行动，仍然是通膨数据定胜负，所谓就业数据(非农/初领失业救济金)都是次要的数据，不需太过浪费时间观察与提心吊胆，通膨数据落在当月第2周，专注于此即可，这点是今年初以来，笔者不断强调的观点。所谓资金行情/殖利率折现，后续几周至下个CPI前，反而冲击预期趋缓。\n\n（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）\n\n点击下图【60 秒测试 你的理财天赋有几分？】\n\n<a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\"><img alt=\"图片 1\" data-height=\"174\" data-ratio=\"4.011494252873563\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/m/ac0cdef7fb3f9e49f1f312667974d851.jpg\" data-width=\"698\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6611783/l/ac0cdef7fb3f9e49f1f312667974d851.jpg\"></a>\n\n「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」，20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区，以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务，让努力累积财富的你，也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。\n\n没有代理金融商品，不以商品销售出发，减少你的财务漏洞！从资产配置出发，透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」，你不需牺牲时间体力，就能感受到资产提升！\n\n「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑 \n立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a> \n进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a> \n收听「资产汇谈」Podcast <a href=\"https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8\">https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8</a>\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2347.html\" title=\"合晶矽光子、碳化矽晶圆报捷三地同步大扩产\">合晶矽光子、碳化矽晶圆报捷三地同步大扩产</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2691.html\" title=\"昕力资加入Intel伙伴联盟强打企业级AI解决方案\">昕力资加入Intel伙伴联盟强打企业级AI解决方案</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11170.html\" 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