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季底作帐结束就翻脸?高价股爆调节卖压!法说前夕历史惯性即将复制!

2026-09-30 17:29:36 网络 阅读(1)

第三季最后一个交易日,台股盘面看起来震荡不,高价权值股涌现结算调节卖压,大盘在逼近历史高点之际,究竟是多头力竭还是法人换股?随着今晚PCE数据公布与重磅法说会倒数两周,历史惯性行情已悄然启动。

季底作帐结束就翻脸?高价股爆调节卖压!法说前夕历史惯性即将复制!

〈季底结算卖压浮现 高档震荡更要看懂资金方向〉

台股盘中一度站上48000点,但尾盘在季底结算卖压涌现之下涨幅快速收敛,终场加权指数收在47940.13点,成交金额约8756亿元,这样的走势智霖老师并不意外,因为今天适逢第三季最后一个交易日,多数主、被动式ETF与基金都有结算作帐及换股调节需求,加上台股这一季已经一路推进到历史高档附近,季底作帐任务基本上已经完成,高价权值股自然容易出现逢高获利了结,真正要注意的,是外部总经环境开始出现压力,美国长天期公债殖利率持续维持高档,对高估值科技股仍形成评价压力,今晚市场又将聚焦美国PCE数据,如果通膨降温,当然有机会舒缓债券市场压力,但半导体股本身已经位在相对高档,同样要留意利多反映后的震荡。

〈法说前资金提前卡位 台积电供应链全面表态〉

距离台积电(2330-TW)季度法说会只剩约两周,依照过往市场惯性,法说前资金往往会提前卡位具备展望与订单能见度的供应链,在整体盘势维持量缩震荡的情况下,智霖老师先前再三强调最值得持续追踪的方向,就是直接受惠台积电先进制程扩产的厂务工程、关键设备以及半导体耗材,昨天才特别提醒大家留意,今天资金马上表态,先进厂务工程指标洋基工程(6691-TW)今天直接攻上涨停,会员持续布局的ASML关键模组代工与厂务设备指标帆宣(6196-TW),盘中同样出现明显攻势,至于关键耗材与特用化学品的新应材(4749-TW),最近两天底部型态明显垫高,而且开始有量能进场消化上方季线反压,指数高档震荡不代表市场没有机会,真正的差别仍然在选股。

〈免费下载【陈智霖分析师APP】,掌握第一手盘势资讯与信用筹码名单〉

APP选股会员每月限额招收,名额有限,每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」,邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师APP】:https://lihi.cc/zwrii

〈第四季不是不能做 而是不能再随便做〉

第三季结束之后,市场即将进入第四季新一轮主流轮动,不要因为台股还在高档,就急着把所有股票都买满,这个阶段要把有限的资金集中在具备产业底气、营收动能与筹码优势的少数标的,尤其在量缩环境之下,最忌讳的就是追逐没有基本面支撑的非主流股票,台积电(2330-TW)法说前,先进制程扩产相关供应链仍是我们持续锁定的核心方向,面对高难度的震荡行情,与其每天追逐盘面最热的股票,不如把重点放回产业趋势与资金流向,邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师APP】,即时资讯都会在APP内第一时间分享,带你用数据掌握节奏,每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单,帮你避开风险、锁定机会。

最新影音(请点影音上方标题至Youtube收视品质会更佳)

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忠实粉丝请先完成填表申请,每周限时开放体验精选操作名单、盘中到价盘中通知与即时策略更新,面对震荡行情,理性分析与数据判断是关键,立即填表跟上专业:https://lihi.cc/RFzlE

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文章来源:陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾

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      "id": 40,
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台积电法说前两周,资金提前卡位先进制程供应链,洋基工程涨停、帆宣与新应材走强。",
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    "content": "<p>第三季最后一个交易日,台股盘面看起来震荡不,高价权值股涌现结算调节卖压,大盘在逼近历史高点之际,究竟是多头力竭还是法人换股?随着今晚PCE数据公布与重磅法说会倒数两周,历史惯性行情已悄然启动。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6618728/l/2f57c86c4dc9c3cdd68376f59d5ae980.jpg\" alt=\"季底作帐结束就翻脸?高价股爆调节卖压!法说前夕历史惯性即将复制!\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p><strong>〈季底结算卖压浮现 高档震荡更要看懂资金方向〉</strong></p>\n\n<p>台股盘中一度站上48000点,但尾盘在季底结算卖压涌现之下涨幅快速收敛,终场加权指数收在47940.13点,成交金额约8756亿元,这样的走势<a href=\"https://news.cnyes.com/tag/%E9%99%B3%E6%99%BA%E9%9C%96\">智霖老师</a>并不意外,因为今天适逢第三季最后一个交易日,多数主、被动式ETF与基金都有结算作帐及换股调节需求,加上台股这一季已经一路推进到历史高档附近,季底作帐任务基本上已经完成,高价权值股自然容易出现逢高获利了结,真正要注意的,是外部总经环境开始出现压力,美国长天期公债殖利率持续维持高档,对高估值科技股仍形成评价压力,今晚市场又将聚焦美国PCE数据,如果通膨降温,当然有机会舒缓债券市场压力,但半导体股本身已经位在相对高档,同样要留意利多反映后的震荡。</p>\n\n<p><strong>〈法说前资金提前卡位 台积电供应链全面表态〉</strong></p>\n\n<p>距离台积电(2330-TW)季度法说会只剩约两周,依照过往市场惯性,法说前资金往往会提前卡位具备展望与订单能见度的供应链,在整体盘势维持量缩震荡的情况下,<a href=\"https://news.cnyes.com/tag/%E9%99%B3%E6%99%BA%E9%9C%96\">智霖老师</a>先前再三强调最值得持续追踪的方向,就是直接受惠台积电先进制程扩产的厂务工程、关键设备以及半导体耗材,昨天才特别提醒大家留意,今天资金马上表态,先进厂务工程指标洋基工程(6691-TW)今天直接攻上涨停,会员持续布局的ASML关键模组代工与厂务设备指标帆宣(6196-TW),盘中同样出现明显攻势,至于关键耗材与特用化学品的新应材(4749-TW),最近两天底部型态明显垫高,而且开始有量能进场消化上方季线反压,指数高档震荡不代表市场没有机会,真正的差别仍然在选股。</p>\n\n<p><strong>〈</strong><strong>免费下载【陈智霖分析师APP</strong><strong>】,掌握第一手盘势资讯与信用筹码名单</strong><strong>〉</strong></p>\n\n<p>APP选股会员每月限额招收,名额有限,每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」,邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师APP】:<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/zwrii\">https://lihi.cc/zwrii</a></p>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"121\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"4.016528925619835\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6618728/m/187f9996e8be4c0c342eb43b46d247d8.jpg\" data-width=\"486\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6618728/l/187f9996e8be4c0c342eb43b46d247d8.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<p><strong>〈第四季不是不能做 而是不能再随便做〉</strong></p>\n\n<p>第三季结束之后,市场即将进入第四季新一轮主流轮动,不要因为台股还在高档,就急着把所有股票都买满,这个阶段要把有限的资金集中在具备产业底气、营收动能与筹码优势的少数标的,尤其在量缩环境之下,最忌讳的就是追逐没有基本面支撑的非主流股票,台积电(2330-TW)法说前,先进制程扩产相关供应链仍是我们持续锁定的核心方向,面对高难度的震荡行情,与其每天追逐盘面最热的股票,不如把重点放回产业趋势与资金流向,邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师APP】,即时资讯都会在APP内第一时间分享,带你用数据掌握节奏,每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单,帮你避开风险、锁定机会。</p>\n\n<p>最新影音(请点影音上方标题至Youtube收视品质会更佳)</p>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/A96b1blc0Ns\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n<p><strong>〈</strong><strong>立即填表体验咨询陈智霖分析师会员服务</strong><strong>〉</strong></p>\n\n<p>忠实粉丝请先完成填表申请,每周限时开放体验精选操作名单、盘中到价盘中通知与即时策略更新,面对震荡行情,理性分析与数据判断是关键,立即填表跟上专业:<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/RFzlE\">https://lihi.cc/RFzlE</a></p>\n\n<p>钱进热线 02-2653-8299,立即迈向系统依据的股票操作。</p>\n\n<p>文章来源:陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾</p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券<br>\n无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利<br>\n投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12002.html\" title=\"宏达电推出VIVE Roundtable AI专家团队互动平台 协助使用者探讨健康、科技、艺术领域\">宏达电推出VIVE Roundtable AI专家团队互动平台 协助使用者探讨健康、科技、艺术领域</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4525.html\" title=\"上市非主管均薪前十强清一色半导体 联发科446万元夺冠、台积电第三\">上市非主管均薪前十强清一色半导体 联发科446万元夺冠、台积电第三</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8101.html\" title=\"〈台币〉忧心通膨和升息 股汇双杀收32.358元贬值9.2分\">〈台币〉忧心通膨和升息 股汇双杀收32.358元贬值9.2分</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4481.html\" title=\"新北捷运达108公里冠全国!三莺线通车到台北省20分钟 贯穿北北基桃黄金廊带\">新北捷运达108公里冠全国!三莺线通车到台北省20分钟 贯穿北北基桃黄金廊带</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10265.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:精测(6510-TW)目标价调升至3750元,幅度约7.14%\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:精测(6510-TW)目标价调升至3750元,幅度约7.14%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6985.html\" title=\"iPhone 17系列在台上市9个月销售年增12% 买气强劲未来通路难再降价\">iPhone 17系列在台上市9个月销售年增12% 买气强劲未来通路难再降价</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6618728",
    "createdAt": "2026-09-30T08:58:38.000Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-09-30T09:29:36.000Z"
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