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3100→3300!高盛调高台积电目标价6.5% 看好AI带动业绩强劲成长

2026-10-06 09:21:45 网络 阅读(1)

华尔街投行高盛因AI需求在GPU、网路晶片与伺服器CPU三大领域同步扩张,重申台积电「买进」投资评等,目标价由3100元新台币调升至3300元,并大幅上修2027、2028年资本支出预测,反映先进制程与先进封装产能瓶颈持续紧绷。

3100→3300!高盛调高台积电目标价6.5%  看好AI带动业绩强劲成长

高盛分析师Evelyn Yu表示,由Agentic AI驱动的更强CPU需求,是过去一年的关键变化。相较於单纯大模型训练,AI智慧体应用需多步推理、工具呼叫、任务编排与多模型协作,除推高GPU与ASIC加速器和高速互连晶片用量,也增加伺服器CPU在排程、预处理与系统管理上的负载;网路晶片则受惠于资料中心scale‑up、scale‑out频宽升级。

Yu还指出,台积电在先进逻辑制程、小晶片设计平台与CoWoS等先进封装的完整覆盖,使其同时受惠于加速器、CPU与交换器订单。

财测方面,高盛预估台积电2026、2027年美元营收分别年增42%、36.9%,毛利率约67.2%、67.5%,获利高成长主因高阶AI晶片占比提升、N3与后续N2制程良率改善,以及先进封装溢价。

资本支出方面,高盛预估将原先预测的2027年780亿美元、2028年820亿美元,分别上调至850亿、980亿美元,用于支援长期客户承诺,扩充先进晶圆、CoWoS产能与相关供应链。

高盛认为,AI资本支出循环从「训练主导」转向「训练+推理+智慧体」并行,单一云端客户与主权AI、企业级推论同时放量,台积电议价能力与产能利用率可望维持高档。3300元目标价相当于在既有利润率与成长假设下,给予先进节点龙头更高溢价。

但高盛也点出潜在风险指出,若超大规模云端资本开支放缓、CoWoS扩产不及导致出货延后,或美国出口管制、海外厂区成本与电力供给干扰,可能影响毛利率与资本报酬。整体而言,高盛上修剧本核心在「AI不只买GPU」,网路与CPU需求接力,使台积电先进制程与封装的成长周期再延长。

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看好AI需求扩及GPU、网路晶片与伺服器CPU,台积电受惠
上修2027、2028年资本支出至850亿、980亿美元,先进制程与CoWoS扩产",
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