【量大强涨股整理】台股拉回是送分题？！台股震荡「这件事千万别做」

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再来看一下今天的台股!

加权指数今日开低走低，终场下跌667.25点，收在46368.33，成交量7891.52亿。

观察三大法人今天筹码动向，外资卖超688.15亿元，投信买超86.49亿元，自营商卖超215亿元，三大法人合计卖超816.66亿元，其中，外资、自营商由买转卖，投信则连买十三日共买超 1991.09亿元。

联准会如市场预期维持利率不变，美股连续第三个交易日收高，记忆体与半导体族群同步走强，带动市场投资气氛回温，不过科技股盘后表现分歧，加上通膨走势与AI资本支出效益仍存疑虑，联准会以10票赞成、2票反对，决议将联邦资金利率目标区间维持在3.75%至4%，符合市场预期，主席华许重申抑制通膨的决心，并形容目前就业情势相当正面，但未明确释出12月利率政策方向，市场对后续货币政策仍保持观望，美股四大指数全数收红，道琼工业指数上涨0.2%，标普500指数上涨0.28%，那斯达克指数上涨0.27%，费城半导体指数上涨1.75%，美股延续反弹格局。个股表现方面，(ORCL-US)甲骨文，受惠长期营收展望强劲，股价大涨10.73%，公司预估2030会计年度营收可达2,250亿美元，年成长约35%，凸显AI云端基础建设需求持续升温，记忆体族群同样成为盘面焦点，(MU-US)美光，大涨5.86%，(SNDK-US)SanDisk，上涨7.66%，反映市场对AI伺服器、高效能运算及储存需求的期待，不过科技股盘后走势涨跌互见，(MSFT-US)微软，第一季营收与获利优于预期，Azure云端业务成长48%，自由现金流达186亿美元，股价下跌0.06%，(GOOGL-US)Alphabet，因财报表现及AI投资效益引发市场疑虑，股价仅小涨1.6%，(CRWV-US)CoreWeave，上涨7.32%，显示市场开始更加重视AI投资能否转化为实际获利与现金流。

回到台股，台股在前一日大涨后面临获利了结卖压，今日盘中一度回测季线支撑，所幸跌幅随后收敛，终场下跌667.25点，收在46368.33，成交量7891.52亿，显示下方仍有承接买盘，今日回档除了量能不够以外，加上融资余额大幅的增加短线上筹码比较凌乱，不过台股这波每逢回测季线都出现收脚及反弹向上，显示季线附近相对有撑，整体而言，台股短线预期在季线附近震荡整理，前波涨多拉回有助筹码沉淀，在11月美国期中选举的不确定性因素消除后，台股未来有望续攻向上，第四季至明年第一季仍可持续关注具备基本面支撑的成长型企业，操作上维持选股不选市，优先布局订单能见度高、获利实质成长、评价相对合理的AI供应链及中小型利基股，避免单纯追逐热门题材，本周后续应持续关注美国通膨数据、科技巨头财报，以及(AXTI-US)AXT，(INTC-US)英特尔，与(AMZN-US)亚马逊，等企业的业绩表现，作为判断半导体需求、AI投资趋势及市场资金轮动的重要依据。

权值股方面，(2330-TW)台积电，下跌0.41%，收在2415元，AI晶片需求持续攀升，台积电CoWoS先进封装报价酝酿调涨1至2成，部分设备交期延长至6至8个月，供应链扩产压力升高，随着AI GPU、伺服器CPU及客制化ASIC需求扩大，加上高频宽记忆体整合提高制程复杂度，封装与测试产能同步吃紧，台积电持续推进先进封装布局，法人估2026年月产能朝逾13万片迈进，2027年以20万片为目标，并扩充嘉义、台南产能，长期也规划美国新厂，相关设备与零组件供应商可望受惠；

(2317-TW)鸿海，下跌1.39%，收在248元，携手(NVDA-US)辉达深化AI智慧制造布局，运用Blackwell架构及DGX超级运算平台，使1,200亿参数模型训练速度提升至过去的2.48倍，并加速自研FoxBrain模型发展，AI应用已导入全球逾200座厂区，生产排程工时减少25%，射出成型工程工作量降低50%，SMT产线异常改善率逾90%，此外鸿海结合数位孪生、机器人及AI代理人技术，推动工厂自动化与智慧化升级，有助提升生产效率及长期竞争力；

(2454-TW)联发科，上涨6.94%，收在4235元，将于30日举行法说会，花旗预估第四季营收季增30%，达2,169亿元，2026年AI ASIC业务贡献可望突破20亿美元，联发科积极布局预计2029年量产的TPU v10专案，采用CoWoS或CoPoS封装技术，订单能见度延伸至2029年以后，花旗预估2026至2028年EPS分别为74.94元、167.76元及282.47元，并给予6,800元目标价，后续仍须观察AI ASIC出货进度与实际获利表现。

2026.10.25 股市期皇后领先预告(2465-TW)丽台

(2465-TW)丽台，78=>113，领先预告后+45%，

AI需求持续升温，受惠于母集团美超微（Supermicro）财报利多激励，加上辉达AI工作站需求有增无减，在辉达RTX Pro 5500工作站绘图卡即将量产上市，因可进入中国市场，尚未出货便传出抢购潮，丽台(2465-TW)为台湾独家代理商，中国业务占比逾六成，可望成为主要受惠者，公司前三季营收73.9亿元，年增逾倍，上半年每股盈余2.79元，第三季营收33.15亿元创高。随RTX Pro 6000系列、DGX Spark需求畅旺，加上产品售价调涨，第四季营运可望续强，全年获利具成长潜力。

2026.10.16 股市期皇后领先预告(4526-TW)东台

(4526-TW)东台，34.1=>54.6，领先预告后+60%，

东台，于TPCA Show 2026展出CCD高精度钻孔机及AMR无人化解决方案，锁定AI伺服器板与IC载板需求，整合自动换刀、板材上下料及刀具仓储管理，提升生产效率与加工精度，随着全球AI基础建设持续扩张，高阶PCB钻孔设备需求升温，东台已切入台湾、中国及韩国指标板厂供应链，订单能见度直达2027年底，目前产能维持满载，并积极优化产线、扩充产能，掌握AI产业成长商机。

2026.10.24 股市期皇后领先预告(3105-TW)稳懋

(3105-TW)稳懋，486=>594，领先预告后+22%，

稳懋受惠PIN等光通讯新订单自6月开始量产，搭配AI资料中心、低轨道卫星需求成长，后续营运动能看俏，2026年第二季营收52.57亿元，季增14.54%，税后净利9.77亿元，季增83.22%，展望第三季，光通讯出货放量，加上低轨卫星标案陆续出货，可望带动营收成长，其中光通讯成长动能最受期待，随新订单第四季持续放大，2027年营运成长空间可期。

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股市期皇后庄佳萤

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10/29

强势股分享

【上市量大上涨股】

(3321-TW)同泰

(3035-TW)智原

(2352-TW)佳世达

(2465-TW)丽台

(6873-TW)泓德能源

(2491-TW)吉祥全

(2426-TW)鼎元

(4526-TW)东台

(2492-TW)华新科

(1201-TW)味全

(4562-TW)颖汉

(6719-TW)力智

(4155-TW)讯映

(2892-TW)第一金

(6155-TW)钧宝

(6446-TW)药华药

10/29

强势股分享

【上柜量大上涨股】

(2221-TW)大甲

(3105-TW)稳懋

(6233-TW)旺玖

(3691-TW)硕禾

(6727-TW)亚泰金属

(8089-TW)康全电讯

(8099-TW)大世科

(4577-TW)达航科技

(6925-TW)意蓝

(8240-TW)华宏

(3581-TW)博磊

(6173-TW)信昌电

(6708-TW)天擎

(8042-TW)金山电

(3324-TW)双鸿

(4714-TW)永捷

庄佳萤分析师:

每日分享盘势解析跟精选产业个股，让投资朋友轻松追踪2026年年台股操作方向，相关详细内容请加入Line@索取，免费提供给您!

股市期皇后证期双分析师庄佳萤

LINE官方帐号

LINE ID搜寻: @win1788 (@不可省略)

或是点击下方网址加入

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文章来源:摩尔投顾庄佳萤分析师

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市场指台股前波涨多拉回、盘中回测季线后收敛，短线估在季线附近震荡整理，操作宜选股不选市。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/l/def4fd8eb8b941e7134ca039c4e6fd22.jpg", "content": "\n【量大强涨股整理】台股拉回是送分题？！台股震荡「这件事千万别做」\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/l/def4fd8eb8b941e7134ca039c4e6fd22.jpg\" alt=\"【量大强涨股整理】台股拉回是送分题？！台股震荡「这件事千万别做」\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/wF5tDvF-y5g\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n（按赞订阅打开小铃铛）\n\n再来看一下今天的台股!\n\n加权指数今日开低走低，终场下跌667.25点，收在46368.33，成交量7891.52亿。\n\n观察三大法人今天筹码动向，外资卖超688.15亿元，投信买超86.49亿元，自营商卖超215亿元，三大法人合计卖超816.66亿元，其中，外资、自营商由买转卖，投信则连买十三日共买超 1991.09亿元。\n\n联准会如市场预期维持利率不变，美股连续第三个交易日收高，记忆体与半导体族群同步走强，带动市场投资气氛回温，不过科技股盘后表现分歧，加上通膨走势与AI资本支出效益仍存疑虑，联准会以10票赞成、2票反对，决议将联邦资金利率目标区间维持在3.75%至4%，符合市场预期，主席华许重申抑制通膨的决心，并形容目前就业情势相当正面，但未明确释出12月利率政策方向，市场对后续货币政策仍保持观望，美股四大指数全数收红，道琼工业指数上涨0.2%，标普500指数上涨0.28%，那斯达克指数上涨0.27%，费城半导体指数上涨1.75%，美股延续反弹格局。个股表现方面，(ORCL-US)甲骨文，受惠长期营收展望强劲，股价大涨10.73%，公司预估2030会计年度营收可达2,250亿美元，年成长约35%，凸显AI云端基础建设需求持续升温，记忆体族群同样成为盘面焦点，(MU-US)美光，大涨5.86%，(SNDK-US)SanDisk，上涨7.66%，反映市场对AI伺服器、高效能运算及储存需求的期待，不过科技股盘后走势涨跌互见，(MSFT-US)微软，第一季营收与获利优于预期，Azure云端业务成长48%，自由现金流达186亿美元，股价下跌0.06%，(GOOGL-US)Alphabet，因财报表现及AI投资效益引发市场疑虑，股价仅小涨1.6%，(CRWV-US)CoreWeave，上涨7.32%，显示市场开始更加重视AI投资能否转化为实际获利与现金流。\n\n回到台股，台股在前一日大涨后面临获利了结卖压，今日盘中一度回测季线支撑，所幸跌幅随后收敛，终场下跌667.25点，收在46368.33，成交量7891.52亿，显示下方仍有承接买盘，今日回档除了量能不够以外，加上融资余额大幅的增加短线上筹码比较凌乱，不过台股这波每逢回测季线都出现收脚及反弹向上，显示季线附近相对有撑，整体而言，台股短线预期在季线附近震荡整理，前波涨多拉回有助筹码沉淀，在11月美国期中选举的不确定性因素消除后，台股未来有望续攻向上，第四季至明年第一季仍可持续关注具备基本面支撑的成长型企业，操作上维持选股不选市，优先布局订单能见度高、获利实质成长、评价相对合理的AI供应链及中小型利基股，避免单纯追逐热门题材，本周后续应持续关注美国通膨数据、科技巨头财报，以及(AXTI-US)AXT，(INTC-US)英特尔，与(AMZN-US)亚马逊，等企业的业绩表现，作为判断半导体需求、AI投资趋势及市场资金轮动的重要依据。\n\n权值股方面，(2330-TW)台积电，下跌0.41%，收在2415元，AI晶片需求持续攀升，台积电CoWoS先进封装报价酝酿调涨1至2成，部分设备交期延长至6至8个月，供应链扩产压力升高，随着AI GPU、伺服器CPU及客制化ASIC需求扩大，加上高频宽记忆体整合提高制程复杂度，封装与测试产能同步吃紧，台积电持续推进先进封装布局，法人估2026年月产能朝逾13万片迈进，2027年以20万片为目标，并扩充嘉义、台南产能，长期也规划美国新厂，相关设备与零组件供应商可望受惠； \n\n(2317-TW)鸿海，下跌1.39%，收在248元，携手(NVDA-US)辉达深化AI智慧制造布局，运用Blackwell架构及DGX超级运算平台，使1,200亿参数模型训练速度提升至过去的2.48倍，并加速自研FoxBrain模型发展，AI应用已导入全球逾200座厂区，生产排程工时减少25%，射出成型工程工作量降低50%，SMT产线异常改善率逾90%，此外鸿海结合数位孪生、机器人及AI代理人技术，推动工厂自动化与智慧化升级，有助提升生产效率及长期竞争力；\n\n(2454-TW)联发科，上涨6.94%，收在4235元，将于30日举行法说会，花旗预估第四季营收季增30%，达2,169亿元，2026年AI ASIC业务贡献可望突破20亿美元，联发科积极布局预计2029年量产的TPU v10专案，采用CoWoS或CoPoS封装技术，订单能见度延伸至2029年以后，花旗预估2026至2028年EPS分别为74.94元、167.76元及282.47元，并给予6,800元目标价，后续仍须观察AI ASIC出货进度与实际获利表现。\n\n2026.10.25 股市期皇后领先预告(2465-TW)丽台\n\n<img data-height=\"500\" data-ratio=\"1.52\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/m/68ee7c48d8ad4afdc379249eb72f3fa1.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/l/68ee7c48d8ad4afdc379249eb72f3fa1.jpg\"></img>\n\n(2465-TW)丽台，78=>113，领先预告后+45%，\n\nAI需求持续升温，受惠于母集团美超微（Supermicro）财报利多激励，加上辉达AI工作站需求有增无减，在辉达RTX Pro 5500工作站绘图卡即将量产上市，因可进入中国市场，尚未出货便传出抢购潮，丽台(2465-TW)为台湾独家代理商，中国业务占比逾六成，可望成为主要受惠者，公司前三季营收73.9亿元，年增逾倍，上半年每股盈余2.79元，第三季营收33.15亿元创高。随RTX Pro 6000系列、DGX Spark需求畅旺，加上产品售价调涨，第四季营运可望续强，全年获利具成长潜力。\n\n<img data-height=\"498\" data-ratio=\"1.5261044176706828\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/m/fd359fbefdf871348a9f99b585c435d8.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/l/fd359fbefdf871348a9f99b585c435d8.jpg\"></img>\n\n2026.10.16 股市期皇后领先预告(4526-TW)东台\n\n<img data-height=\"497\" data-ratio=\"1.529175050301811\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/m/11c9db9064ca9b2bea8444be8b264c4d.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/l/11c9db9064ca9b2bea8444be8b264c4d.jpg\"></img>\n\n(4526-TW)东台，34.1=>54.6，领先预告后+60%，\n\n东台，于TPCA Show 2026展出CCD高精度钻孔机及AMR无人化解决方案，锁定AI伺服器板与IC载板需求，整合自动换刀、板材上下料及刀具仓储管理，提升生产效率与加工精度，随着全球AI基础建设持续扩张，高阶PCB钻孔设备需求升温，东台已切入台湾、中国及韩国指标板厂供应链，订单能见度直达2027年底，目前产能维持满载，并积极优化产线、扩充产能，掌握AI产业成长商机。\n\n<img data-height=\"503\" data-ratio=\"1.510934393638171\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/m/2f89f2c212338a50046e23d5d9b3049e.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/l/2f89f2c212338a50046e23d5d9b3049e.jpg\"></img>\n\n2026.10.24 股市期皇后领先预告(3105-TW)稳懋\n\n<img data-height=\"496\" data-ratio=\"1.532258064516129\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/m/abb1eee1fd45eb8f2a5689a805e345c1.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/l/abb1eee1fd45eb8f2a5689a805e345c1.jpg\"></img>\n\n(3105-TW)稳懋，486=>594，领先预告后+22%，\n\n稳懋受惠PIN等光通讯新订单自6月开始量产，搭配AI资料中心、低轨道卫星需求成长，后续营运动能看俏，2026年第二季营收52.57亿元，季增14.54%，税后净利9.77亿元，季增83.22%，展望第三季，光通讯出货放量，加上低轨卫星标案陆续出货，可望带动营收成长，其中光通讯成长动能最受期待，随新订单第四季持续放大，2027年营运成长空间可期。\n\n<img data-height=\"505\" data-ratio=\"1.504950495049505\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/m/86158c424683b94d99a770b45df5c25e.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/l/86158c424683b94d99a770b45df5c25e.jpg\"></img>\n\n欢迎免费订阅 \n股市期皇后庄佳萤\n\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a>\n\n10/29\n\n强势股分享\n\n【上市量大上涨股】 \n(3321-TW)同泰\n\n(3035-TW)智原\n\n(2352-TW)佳世达\n\n(2465-TW)丽台\n\n(6873-TW)泓德能源\n\n(2491-TW)吉祥全\n\n(2426-TW)鼎元\n\n(4526-TW)东台\n\n(2492-TW)华新科\n\n(1201-TW)味全\n\n(4562-TW)颖汉\n\n(6719-TW)力智\n\n(4155-TW)讯映\n\n(2892-TW)第一金\n\n(6155-TW)钧宝\n\n(6446-TW)药华药\n\n<img data-height=\"547\" data-ratio=\"1.1151736745886653\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/m/9d12143adedbf089fdd38be56d860d4e.jpg\" data-width=\"610\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/l/9d12143adedbf089fdd38be56d860d4e.jpg\"></img>\n\n10/29\n\n强势股分享\n\n【上柜量大上涨股】 \n(2221-TW)大甲\n\n(3105-TW)稳懋\n\n(6233-TW)旺玖\n\n(3691-TW)硕禾\n\n(6727-TW)亚泰金属\n\n(8089-TW)康全电讯\n\n(8099-TW)大世科\n\n(4577-TW)达航科技\n\n(6925-TW)意蓝\n\n(8240-TW)华宏\n\n(3581-TW)博磊\n\n(6173-TW)信昌电\n\n(6708-TW)天擎\n\n(8042-TW)金山电\n\n(3324-TW)双鸿\n\n(4714-TW)永捷\n\n<img data-height=\"549\" data-ratio=\"1.1074681238615665\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/m/9955ade7383c7f0ba088ae581c58430b.jpg\" data-width=\"608\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640682/l/9955ade7383c7f0ba088ae581c58430b.jpg\"></img>\n\n庄佳萤分析师: \n每日分享盘势解析跟精选产业个股，让投资朋友轻松追踪2026年年台股操作方向，相关详细内容请加入Line@索取，免费提供给您!\n\n股市期皇后证期双分析师庄佳萤\n\nLINE官方帐号\n\nLINE ID搜寻: @win1788 (@不可省略)\n\n或是点击下方网址加入 \n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a>\n\nYoutube影音频道精彩解盘影片不容错过!\n\n(记得按赞，订阅并打开小铃铛)\n\n<a href=\"http://yt1.piee.pw/QAHKZ\">http://yt1.piee.pw/QAHKZ</a>\n\nFB粉丝团:【股市期皇后】\n\n<a href=\"https://goo.gl/kN2VKT\">https://goo.gl/kN2VKT</a> \n \n文章来源:摩尔投顾庄佳萤分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-13884.html\" title=\"《价值型投资最新产业研究报告》仓和 (6538-TW) 美国电池片扩产，高规格网版带动营运升温\">《价值型投资最新产业研究报告》仓和 (6538-TW) 美国电池片扩产，高规格网版带动营运升温</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8602.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：纬颖(6669-TW)EPS预估上修至357.48元，预估目标价为7323.5元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：纬颖(6669-TW)EPS预估上修至357.48元，预估目标价为7323.5元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10870.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：望隼(4771-TW)EPS预估上修至17.42元，预估目标价为247元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：望隼(4771-TW)EPS预估上修至17.42元，预估目标价为247元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11269.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 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