Anthropic正式提交S-1文件，IPO前揭露数据估值信心稍有回升

股票代号ANT，Anthropic IPO首日市值有望逼近2兆

IPO前必须提交S-1文件，释出相关营运数据与风险揭露，而S-1文件提交后，市场对Anthropic的估值是正向看待，以polymarket的预测交易市场来看，其中一个210万交易金额的事件，押注IPO首日收盘市值，如下

目前1.75~2兆的隐含机率仍是最高，但1.5~1.75兆下降，2兆以上的两个选项都一度上扬

→凸显出隐含市值落在1.75~2兆，且正在往上缘2兆靠拢

S-1文件中，揭露营收成长与算力效率提升与Q2首见获利

26H1会计帐上营收167亿，为去年同期的14倍，尤其Q1仅47亿，Q2营收达 115亿美元，Q3粗估168亿，成长快速，26H1虽出现巨额亏损807 亿美元，不过其中724亿为公司为所发行的可转债与相关融资协议，进行市值基础的估值减损认列，不涉及现金流出。实际上Q2的快速增长下，首次出现单季营运利益/盈余。

→预期Q3也能缴出损益两平数字，法人机构从ARR等替代数据，转向专注于季度会计数据，例如营收、获利、现金流量表等，因此成长快速且刚盈余翻正的公司，估值正向反应出现，当然这也是公司挑这时候IPO的主要原因。

算力的使用效率提升，营收快速增长是营运利多主因，如上图所示，超越了费用的成长速度。因此可以说营收、获利这部份解决市场疑虑，但现金流仍未能改善，仍需要大量支出，因此相关疑虑仍是现金流这部分

帐上现金1370亿，短期不会有影响，重点在长期采购合约的条件!

目前揭露Anthropic帐上现金1370亿，代表今年至今，包含发债、供应链融资、IPO前增资等几轮募资顺利，短期内现金无虞。至少1~2季之内都没有立即融资的必要

短期的资金也没有担忧的道理，自然最显著的风险仍是长期采购合约这块，从S-1朝股书中爬梳的资料整理如下表，总额破7000亿，前5大合作商的总额破5000亿

包含TPU体系的供应链融资，有Broadcom、Google/SPV，另外Anthropic的旧爱，合作最久的AWS也在其中，除此之外，另一破1000亿的大客户是SpaceX(xAI)

并且而这些合约的细项各有不同，除了合约总额外，举几个普遍拿来对比的例如合约年限，有长达10年至2036，也有短至年年更新换约，整体而言，长约大多是大型云端厂商，大多合约是不得取消，无论最终使用量多寡，都要付款短约，针对小型Neocloud作为弹性调控项目，这部分Anthropic议价权较高。

核心风险: 仍然认为是模型商不再付钱或付不出钱

统整以上，近期传出的公司债殖利率走高，这都是涉及次级市场，初级市场的募资仍然顺利，短期并不会造成太大影响，S-1文件与过去追踪产业的整合分析，笔者认为重点还是摆在AI大买家 Anthropic、OpenAI，尤其又以后者较为有暴雷疑虑，而这类独角兽的IPO，与SpaceX类似，会有蜜月行情，但蜜月行情通常很短，因为机构早就在IPO前都想尽办法拿到持股，所以明年初OpenAI IPO前后，提交S-1文件才会是真正动摇市场信心与估值的关键。

（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）

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S-1揭露26H1营收167亿美元、Q2营收115亿美元并首见单季营运利益；Q3粗估168亿，现金1370亿。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643721/l/d7fc134423c5d226ef790ab145da66cf.jpg", "content": "股票代号ANT，Anthropic IPO首日市值有望逼近2兆\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643721/l/d7fc134423c5d226ef790ab145da66cf.jpg\" alt=\"Anthropic正式提交S-1文件，IPO前揭露数据估值信心稍有回升\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\nIPO前必须提交S-1文件，释出相关营运数据与风险揭露，而S-1文件提交后，市场对Anthropic的估值是正向看待，以polymarket的预测交易市场来看，其中一个210万交易金额的事件，押注IPO首日收盘市值，如下\n\n目前1.75~2兆的隐含机率仍是最高，但1.5~1.75兆下降，2兆以上的两个选项都一度上扬\n\n→凸显出隐含市值落在1.75~2兆，且正在往上缘2兆靠拢\n\nS-1文件中，揭露营收成长与算力效率提升与Q2首见获利\n\n26H1会计帐上营收167亿，为去年同期的14倍，尤其Q1仅47亿，Q2营收达 115亿美元，Q3粗估168亿，成长快速，26H1虽出现巨额亏损807 亿美元，不过其中724亿为公司为所发行的可转债与相关融资协议，进行市值基础的估值减损认列，不涉及现金流出。实际上Q2的快速增长下，首次出现单季营运利益/盈余。\n\n→预期Q3也能缴出损益两平数字，法人机构从ARR等替代数据，转向专注于季度会计数据，例如营收、获利、现金流量表等，因此成长快速且刚盈余翻正的公司，估值正向反应出现，当然这也是公司挑这时候IPO的主要原因。\n\n算力的使用效率提升，营收快速增长是营运利多主因，如上图所示，超越了费用的成长速度。因此可以说营收、获利这部份解决市场疑虑，但现金流仍未能改善，仍需要大量支出，因此相关疑虑仍是现金流这部分\n\n帐上现金1370亿，短期不会有影响，重点在长期采购合约的条件!\n\n目前揭露Anthropic帐上现金1370亿，代表今年至今，包含发债、供应链融资、IPO前增资等几轮募资顺利，短期内现金无虞。至少1~2季之内都没有立即融资的必要\n\n短期的资金也没有担忧的道理，自然最显著的风险仍是长期采购合约这块，从S-1朝股书中爬梳的资料整理如下表，总额破7000亿，前5大合作商的总额破5000亿\n\n包含TPU体系的供应链融资，有Broadcom、Google/SPV，另外Anthropic的旧爱，合作最久的AWS也在其中，除此之外，另一破1000亿的大客户是SpaceX(xAI)\n\n并且而这些合约的细项各有不同，除了合约总额外，举几个普遍拿来对比的例如合约年限，有长达10年至2036，也有短至年年更新换约，整体而言，长约大多是大型云端厂商，大多合约是不得取消，无论最终使用量多寡，都要付款短约，针对小型Neocloud作为弹性调控项目，这部分Anthropic议价权较高。 \n\n核心风险: 仍然认为是模型商不再付钱或付不出钱\n\n统整以上，近期传出的公司债殖利率走高，这都是涉及次级市场，初级市场的募资仍然顺利，短期并不会造成太大影响，S-1文件与过去追踪产业的整合分析，笔者认为重点还是摆在AI大买家 Anthropic、OpenAI，尤其又以后者较为有暴雷疑虑，而这类独角兽的IPO，与SpaceX类似，会有蜜月行情，但蜜月行情通常很短，因为机构早就在IPO前都想尽办法拿到持股，所以明年初OpenAI IPO前后，提交S-1文件才会是真正动摇市场信心与估值的关键。\n\n（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）\n\n点击下图【60 秒测试你的理财天赋有几分？】\n\n<a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\"><img alt=\"图片 1\" data-height=\"174\" data-ratio=\"4.011494252873563\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643721/m/7651d4424f3445248550951e28f3b577.jpg\" data-width=\"698\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643721/l/7651d4424f3445248550951e28f3b577.jpg\"></a>\n\n「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」，20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区，以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务，让努力累积财富的你，也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。\n\n没有代理金融商品，不以商品销售出发，减少你的财务漏洞！从资产配置出发，透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」，你不需牺牲时间体力，就能感受到资产提升！\n\n「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑 \n立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a> \n进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a> \n收听「资产汇谈」Podcast <a href=\"https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8\">https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8</a>\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9242.html\" title=\"国道ETC整案输出至印度背后推手远通携手众台厂成功输出新南向\">国道ETC整案输出至印度背后推手远通携手众台厂成功输出新南向</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4711.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - 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