外资狂砍1兆元！台股杀出双11大特价，AI股捡便宜别只盯台积电、鸿海、联发科

10月初，台股一度冲上49,968点，离5万点只差一步。才一个月，「光辉十月」就变成「输光十月」。外资这波卖超已突破1兆！看到这种数字，你手心会冒汗、想全数卖掉很正常。但我想先问你一句：「AI真的完蛋了吗？台股已经走空了吗？」

变的是筹码，不是基本面

大跌时最先被丢出来的，通常是借钱买股的人。融资户一怕断头就杀出，杀到最后，不少好公司也被一起贱卖。外资卖超也有同样道理，历史经验：每次台股低点，都是外资大卖杀出的台股低点。

至于基本面到底有没有坏，看台积电(2330-TW)就知道！如果AI真是泡沫，最先破的应该是台积电。但事实刚好相反：台积电2026年第三季合并营收约1兆4,942.4亿元，年增50.9%；税后纯益约7,630.6亿元，年增68.7%；单季EPS达29.43元。这不是「故事」，而是已经兑现的获利。

更关键的是供给端。市场传出台积电高阶CoWoS先进封装酝酿涨价，幅度上看20%，交期也拉长至约8个月，背后正是AI GPU、伺服器CPU与客制化ASIC抢产能，加上HBM供给吃紧。当产能不是卖不掉，而是排队都排不到，你说这是泡沫，还是供不应求？

云端巨头也没有踩煞车。微软、甲骨文、Google等持续扩大AI算力资本支出，这也将持续带动台积电、鸿海(2317-TW)、广达(2382-TW)、纬创(3231-TW)等指标协力厂。

拉回不是灾难，是打折特价机会！

台股近期下杀，本益比已降至16倍左右，来到近一年相对低点。对长线投资人来说，这又一次捡便宜的机会！不过，便宜不等于要一次梭哈。比较稳的做法是分批承接，或等右侧讯号出现再进场。还记得我说的「落底四部曲」：先急跌洗融资，再小红小黑盘底；接着出现向上跳空缺口且三天不回补；最后由KD低档黄金交叉、MACD柱状体翻红确认攻击。

首选仍是AI，但别只盯台积鸿海联发科

台积电与鸿海(2317-TW)、联发科(2454-TW)当然是AI列车的车头，但当外资卖压高度集中在权值股时，拉回布局可考虑「供不应求更明显」的次产业找机会。

CPO与光通讯是下一个战场。辉达(NVDA-US)已宣布CPO交换器进入量产，并与台积电共同开发COUPE制程；台系供应链包括京元电(2449-TW)、欣兴(3037-TW)、日月光投控(3711-TW)，都位于光学引擎、载板与测试扩产的关键位置。 CPO就像把AI资料中心内部的「铜线高速公路」升级成「光纤高速公路」，谁能解决测试与良率，谁就吃到量产红利。

HBM与记忆体则是AI的粮仓。三星、SK海力士与美光(MU-US)为符合辉达标准，将HBM基础晶粒委外台积电3奈米代工，带动南亚科(2408-TW)、华邦电(2344-TW)、群联(8299-TW)等记忆体供应链受到法人关注。当AI模型越来越大，记忆体频宽就是新的瓶颈，这不是短期题材，而是结构性需求。

散热、电源与低轨卫星也不能忽略。台积电指出，单一AI机柜正面临功耗飙升与散热极限挑战。摩根士丹利也把光学互连、先进封装、记忆体架构与电源散热列为AI基础设施的四大技术战场，并点名联发科、日月光投控、世芯-KY(3661-TW)、南亚科等具备布局价值。

重申：德国股神科斯托兰尼说：「下跌时没有小麦的人，上涨时也不会有。」所以，现在的重点不是担心台股会不会再跌，而是问自己：如果AI需求未来三年仍在扩张，你愿不愿意在市场恐慌、价格打折时，用现金、分批、有纪律地把好公司抱回来？

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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