AI成长完全没有崩坏、弯腰捡钻石机会、建荣、高侨

一、盘势结构：开高走低再探底，千点下影线透露低接买盘进场

1. 台股今日呈现「开高震荡走低、尾盘跌幅收敛」格局，早盘受费半大涨逾2.6%、AMD财报优于预期激励，一度大涨434点，惟受到美国期中选举不确定性、AI资本支出效益疑虑及外资、自营商持续调节影响，盘中一度重挫1,451点，下探41,855点新低。

2. 所幸尾盘在低接买盘及国家队进场支撑下，跌幅快速收敛，终场下跌358点，收在42,948点，成交值扩大至约1.12兆元，留下长达1,093点下影线，显示低档承接意愿逐渐浮现。

3. 目前市场仍处于「杀现金流、杀融资、杀高估值」的筹码修正阶段，短线剧烈震荡并不意外，但盘中急杀后能够大幅收敛，代表市场并非全面失去承接力道，后续仍须观察低档支撑是否获得确认。

二、技术面与筹码面：融资降温，短线筑底仍待确认

1. 指数再创波段低点，短线技术结构尚未完全扭转，10日线及月线仍是反弹过程中的重要反压，必须重新站回，才能确认多方重新取得主导权。

2. 下档可留意7月31日多方缺口41,155～41,610点区间的支撑效果，加上近期融资大幅减少，有助于降低杠杆及浮额卖压。

3. 后续观察三大法人卖超是否收敛、成交量能否健康降温，以及融资余额是否持续下降。若能出现量缩止跌、低点不再下移，将有利于底部型态逐步成形。

三、基本面：AI需求持续强劲，台股中长期成长动能仍在

1. 外销订单创高： 9月外销订单达1,142.1亿美元，年增62.4%，连续20个月正成长，资讯通信及电子产品分别年增87.3%、71%，反映AI供应链接单动能依然强劲。

2. AMD财报报喜： AMD第三季营收达134亿美元，资料中心部门营收年增97%，显示AI GPU及伺服器需求持续扩张，对台湾半导体、伺服器及相关零组件供应链具有正面意义。

3. CSP资本支出仍有支撑： S&P Global预估2027年大型云端业者AI基础建设投资将超过1.3兆美元，惟融资及自由现金流压力值得留意，因此市场将更加重视AI投资报酬率及能源使用效率。

四、产业布局：聚焦AI新规格与具实质成长的族群

1. CPO／矽光子：Marvell于11月2日宣布以全股票交易收购Lumentum，交易企业价值约1,150亿美元，凸显AI高速光通讯及光电整合的重要性。台股可留意众达-KY(4977-TW)、GIS-KY(6456-TW)及磷化铟相关供应链。

2. Low DK玻纤布／CCL：AI伺服器高速传输规格升级，带动高阶玻纤布、玻纤砂及铜箔基板需求，可持续追踪具产能、认证及涨价受惠能力的厂商。

3. AI资安：AI加速企业数位化，也提高网路攻击及资安防护需求，可留意广寰科(3287-TW)、大世科(8099-TW)、骅宏资(6148-TW)、晋泰(6221-TW)、华经(2468-TW)、讯达(6140-TW)及全景软(8272-TW)等相关个股。

4. 设备与自动化：CNC、PCB钻孔设备及机器人自动化族群，可留意泷泽科(6609-TW)、东台(4526-TW)、恩德(1528-TW)、高侨(6234-TW)、彬台(3379-TW)、颖汉(4562-TW)及协易机(4533-TW)。

5. 被动元件与低基期转机股：国巨(2327-TW)、华新科(2492-TW)、金山电(8042-TW)、建荣(5340-TW)，以及三福化(4755-TW)、泓瀚(4741-TW)、上品(4770-TW)等特化族群，可依订单、毛利率及营运改善进度分批观察。

五、后市展望与操作策略：震荡筑底，选股重于选市

1. 短线：国际利空尚未完全解除，指数仍可能反复测底，不宜因单日长下影线就认定底部确立，须观察低点是否守稳及法人卖压是否减轻。

2. 中期： AI基本面并未转弱，外销订单、AMD财报及CPO技术发展均提供产业成长支撑，待市场信心恢复、资金重新回流，仍有机会迎来反弹行情。

3. 操作：避开破线转弱、高估值及纯题材炒作股；优先布局基本面明确、低基期、具实质订单与相对抗跌能力的AI受惠股。

4. 关键策略：谨守「低接不追高、分批布局、严控资金」原则。持股若遇急涨应适度调节，等待10日线及月线反压逐步克服，再提高持股比重。

总结：这一波台股修正，最大的关键不是AI产业成长趋势消失，而是市场开始重新检视资本支出、获利变现及企业估值。短线震荡难免，但真正具备订单、技术及获利成长的优质企业，反而值得趁市场修正时积极研究。接下来将是「选股重于选市」的重要阶段，掌握产业趋势、汰弱留强，才有机会在下一波反弹行情中取得先机。

黎明前的黑暗

真正的投资高手

不是在行情大涨时才看见机会

而是在市场最恐慌的时候

依然能冷静分析、辨别好坏、掌握风险

有些股票反弹只是逃命机会

有些优质股却可能在修正后迎来重新布局的契机

关键不是每一档都要买

而是下一波究竟该买哪一档？

接下来，我更重视三件事：

找出基本面持续成长的AI潜力股

筛选低基期、具产业竞争优势的转机黑马

掌握进场时机、停利停损与资金配置

别让恐惧阻碍你财富的成长

想知道下一波哪些股票值得留意？

哪些股票反弹应该适度作调节？

欢迎加入【飙股鑫天地】大家族

让我陪你一起掌握趋势与机会、做好风险管理

想一起操作的好朋友务必把握

下一波财富翻转就从现在开始

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文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师

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后市看41,155～41,610点支撑，低接不追高，聚焦AI、CPO/矽光子等基本面股。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646656/l/c32241a11cff089210b88fcf49f50463.jpg", "content": "一、盘势结构：开高走低再探底，千点下影线透露低接买盘进场\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646656/l/c32241a11cff089210b88fcf49f50463.jpg\" alt=\"AI成长完全没有崩坏、弯腰捡钻石机会、建荣、高侨\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n1. 台股今日呈现「开高震荡走低、尾盘跌幅收敛」格局，早盘受费半大涨逾2.6%、AMD财报优于预期激励，一度大涨434点，惟受到美国期中选举不确定性、AI资本支出效益疑虑及外资、自营商持续调节影响，盘中一度重挫1,451点，下探41,855点新低。\n\n2. 所幸尾盘在低接买盘及国家队进场支撑下，跌幅快速收敛，终场下跌358点，收在42,948点，成交值扩大至约1.12兆元，留下长达1,093点下影线，显示低档承接意愿逐渐浮现。\n\n3. 目前市场仍处于「杀现金流、杀融资、杀高估值」的筹码修正阶段，短线剧烈震荡并不意外，但盘中急杀后能够大幅收敛，代表市场并非全面失去承接力道，后续仍须观察低档支撑是否获得确认。\n\n二、技术面与筹码面：融资降温，短线筑底仍待确认\n\n1. 指数再创波段低点，短线技术结构尚未完全扭转，10日线及月线仍是反弹过程中的重要反压，必须重新站回，才能确认多方重新取得主导权。\n\n2. 下档可留意7月31日多方缺口41,155～41,610点区间的支撑效果，加上近期融资大幅减少，有助于降低杠杆及浮额卖压。\n\n3. 后续观察三大法人卖超是否收敛、成交量能否健康降温，以及融资余额是否持续下降。若能出现量缩止跌、低点不再下移，将有利于底部型态逐步成形。\n\n三、基本面：AI需求持续强劲，台股中长期成长动能仍在\n\n1. 外销订单创高： 9月外销订单达1,142.1亿美元，年增62.4%，连续20个月正成长，资讯通信及电子产品分别年增87.3%、71%，反映AI供应链接单动能依然强劲。\n\n2. AMD财报报喜： AMD第三季营收达134亿美元，资料中心部门营收年增97%，显示AI GPU及伺服器需求持续扩张，对台湾半导体、伺服器及相关零组件供应链具有正面意义。\n\n3. CSP资本支出仍有支撑： S&P Global预估2027年大型云端业者AI基础建设投资将超过1.3兆美元，惟融资及自由现金流压力值得留意，因此市场将更加重视AI投资报酬率及能源使用效率。\n\n四、产业布局：聚焦AI新规格与具实质成长的族群\n\n1. CPO／矽光子：Marvell于11月2日宣布以全股票交易收购Lumentum，交易企业价值约1,150亿美元，凸显AI高速光通讯及光电整合的重要性。台股可留意众达-KY(4977-TW)、GIS-KY(6456-TW)及磷化铟相关供应链。\n\n2. Low DK玻纤布／CCL：AI伺服器高速传输规格升级，带动高阶玻纤布、玻纤砂及铜箔基板需求，可持续追踪具产能、认证及涨价受惠能力的厂商。\n\n3. AI资安：AI加速企业数位化，也提高网路攻击及资安防护需求，可留意广寰科(3287-TW)、大世科(8099-TW)、骅宏资(6148-TW)、晋泰(6221-TW)、华经(2468-TW)、讯达(6140-TW)及全景软(8272-TW)等相关个股。\n\n4. 设备与自动化：CNC、PCB钻孔设备及机器人自动化族群，可留意泷泽科(6609-TW)、东台(4526-TW)、恩德(1528-TW)、高侨(6234-TW)、彬台(3379-TW)、颖汉(4562-TW)及协易机(4533-TW)。\n\n5. 被动元件与低基期转机股：国巨(2327-TW)、华新科(2492-TW)、金山电(8042-TW)、建荣(5340-TW)，以及三福化(4755-TW)、泓瀚(4741-TW)、上品(4770-TW)等特化族群，可依订单、毛利率及营运改善进度分批观察。\n\n五、后市展望与操作策略：震荡筑底，选股重于选市\n\n1. 短线：国际利空尚未完全解除，指数仍可能反复测底，不宜因单日长下影线就认定底部确立，须观察低点是否守稳及法人卖压是否减轻。\n\n2. 中期： AI基本面并未转弱，外销订单、AMD财报及CPO技术发展均提供产业成长支撑，待市场信心恢复、资金重新回流，仍有机会迎来反弹行情。\n\n3. 操作：避开破线转弱、高估值及纯题材炒作股；优先布局基本面明确、低基期、具实质订单与相对抗跌能力的AI受惠股。\n\n4. 关键策略：谨守「低接不追高、分批布局、严控资金」原则。持股若遇急涨应适度调节，等待10日线及月线反压逐步克服，再提高持股比重。\n\n总结：这一波台股修正，最大的关键不是AI产业成长趋势消失，而是市场开始重新检视资本支出、获利变现及企业估值。短线震荡难免，但真正具备订单、技术及获利成长的优质企业，反而值得趁市场修正时积极研究。接下来将是「选股重于选市」的重要阶段，掌握产业趋势、汰弱留强，才有机会在下一波反弹行情中取得先机。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n黎明前的黑暗\n\n真正的投资高手\n\n不是在行情大涨时才看见机会\n\n而是在市场最恐慌的时候\n\n依然能冷静分析、辨别好坏、掌握风险\n\n有些股票反弹只是逃命机会\n\n有些优质股却可能在修正后迎来重新布局的契机\n\n关键不是每一档都要买\n\n而是下一波究竟该买哪一档？\n\n接下来，我更重视三件事：\n\n找出基本面持续成长的AI潜力股\n\n筛选低基期、具产业竞争优势的转机黑马\n\n掌握进场时机、停利停损与资金配置\n\n别让恐惧阻碍你财富的成长\n\n想知道下一波哪些股票值得留意？\n\n哪些股票反弹应该适度作调节？\n\n欢迎加入【飙股鑫天地】大家族\n\n让我陪你一起掌握趋势与机会、做好风险管理\n\n想一起操作的好朋友务必把握\n\n下一波财富翻转就从现在开始\n\n<a href=\"https://forms.gle/ZfCi1qmEAJk54xo18\">https://forms.gle/ZfCi1qmEAJk54xo18</a> \n\n<img data-height=\"289\" data-ratio=\"1.5121107266435987\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646656/m/dc92dc3221bcca5585f0615e361863b9.jpg\" data-width=\"437\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646656/m/dc92dc3221bcca5585f0615e361863b9.jpg\">\n\n<img data-height=\"299\" data-ratio=\"1.4782608695652173\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646656/m/d5484d87d8bfc8a6dc992c3a782e3ff5.jpg\" data-width=\"442\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646656/m/d5484d87d8bfc8a6dc992c3a782e3ff5.jpg\">\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/Qp9te8ATBZA\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n \n\n工商时报绩效竞赛13冠王、卓越绩效傲视同业、专业实力有目共赌！\n\n更多第一手讯息、以及飙股机会→请加入大师兄飙股鑫天地的大家族\n\nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a>\n\nTelegram连结网址：<a href=\"https://t.me/gold0999\">https://t.me/gold0999</a>\n\nFB连结网址：<a href=\"https://www.facebook.com/groups/newleechou?locale=zh_TW\">https</a><a href=\"https://www.facebook.com/groups/newleechou?locale=zh_TW\">://</a><a href=\"https://www.facebook.com/groups/newleechou?locale=zh_TW\">www.facebook.com/groups/newleechou?locale=zh_TW</a>\n\nYT个人专属频道：<a href=\"mailto:youtube.com/@master55688\">youtube.com/@master55688</a>\n\n举手之劳、记得！按赞、订阅、分享、开启小铃铛\n\n让更多人可以看见我们的影片\n\n咨询专线02-2321-9933(24小时专人服务)\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"252\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4722222222222223\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646656/m/a978c2edf8bb7dedf387330504aa4688.jpg\" data-width=\"371\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646656/m/a978c2edf8bb7dedf387330504aa4688.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-16415.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 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