民主党横扫四大关键州！AI建设要反转？别盲目杀低，聚焦投信逆势锁码股

美国中期选举结束，民主党掌握参议院及众议院多数，昨日美国盘后盘下跌，但开盘之后三大指数皆上涨，美股市场或早已经提前反应民主党掌握国会的影响。

10月份受到AI股拉回的影响，标普500指数下跌约0.9%，但等权重标普500指数却上涨5.0%左右。等权重标普500指数意思是，不看公司市值大小，而是将所有成分股的权重全部设为相等(0.2%)。资金由科技股轮动至医疗保健、原物料及中小型等，因此，10月重标普500指数反而上涨，反应市场对民主党当选对AI基础建设的可能影响。

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从上面资料来看，美国已规划AI基础建设占比的前四大州，有三州原本是共和党，在中期选举之后，皆由民主党掌控，而昨日美股上涨是因路易斯安那州仍由共和党掌控，路易斯安那州承接由德州溢出AI基础建设，成为全美增长最快的新兴市场，Meta总投资高达500亿美元的 Hyperion专案，就是在路易斯安那州。另外，还有亚马逊规划的180亿美元专案。共和党掌握的州或能承接溢出或暂停的AI建设，故昨日美国四大CSP上涨。

实际上，在本次中期选举之前，由于水电资源的压力，不管是民主党或共和党执政的州，对于AI基础设施的建设监管都有趋严的趋势，造成市场两个截然不同的心态：怕大量的AI基础设施造成财务拖累、怕监管趋严导致AI基础设施停摆。心态不同，但又同样偏空，导致AI供应链成为拖累十月份美股与国际股市的重要原因。

不过美国自1950年以来，19次中期选举，中期选举后半年，上涨19次。平均涨幅约14.8%；中位数涨幅15.2%；最低涨幅3.3%。因此，美国中期选举之后的上涨，并不取决于那个政党胜选，因此本次中期选举之后，美股上涨的机率非常高。

目前机构法人看法，AI建置主要州在民主党上台后4-5GW的资料中心产能可能会从2027年延迟2028年，不过实际上是，目前产能本来也跟不上资料中心产能，所以实际情况影响有限，市场过度恐慌。并且，理论上AI资料中心的建置是针对「新」许可申请才会限制，如果是已取得许可的不会限制，而2027年的AI资料中心都已取得许可，因此2027年看法及基本面一样没有影响。因此，AI供应链本益比被下修一大段，反而是低接买进的机会。

台股今日再度杀低，加速投资价值浮现，AI供应链本益比大幅修正，投信开始布局年底行情，下面为投信逆势买进的AI绩优股，给投资朋友参考。

指数持续探低，投资朋友反而更应该冷静面对，短线的急跌，加速筹码沉淀，持股不要杀低，并留意低接买进的机会。

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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