华许并非鹰派，而是大动作改革中增添不确定性

会后声明大改版，SEP 剧烈变动，事件效应有限

本次的 FOMC 重点是华许的谈话与新改革措施，因此本次利率不升不降，且购债小幅 QE 都维持原状，不多做讨论。

重点在于改变的地方，首先是会后声明大改版!

字数大幅缩减，仅陈述事实。移除前瞻指引与风险平衡

→ 先前暗示降息，只是时机未到的文字删除，上次已经有 3 票异议，这次完全删除

维持: 经济稳健成长、中东局势而存在不确定性

新增: 生产力与资本投资强劲，上修就业增长与劳动力成长相符。

→上修劳动市场，增添 AI 对生产力和投资的影响

强调通膨偏高是供给面影响：承认通膨持续高于委员会 2% 目标，反映能源冲击，并坚定承诺委员会将实现物价稳定。

另外就数据层面的 SEP 报告，也出现针对 2026 一年内的剧烈变动:

小幅下修今年经济成长至 2.2%、失业率至 4.3%，不过都是短期修正，后续 2 年数据持平稳定

大幅上修今年通膨 PCE 2.7% 至 3.6%，核心 PCE2.7% 至 3.3%，反映能源短期波动为通膨上升主因，加上基期效应不扩增至 12 个月后，因此没有上修 2027 与之后的数据

点阵图是 02:00 全球股指一度下跌的主因:

正式转为年底前升息预期，幅度超出机构法人预期，但符合笔者事前 0.5~1 码升息预期

普遍的机构法人自身交易员押注升息，但认为 FED 本次会相对保守，采取渐进式上移，例如高盛预期点阵图集中在 (升 1,0, 降 1)=(3,11,1)，先转为年底前不升不降，宣示降息预期结束。结果实际上的点阵图结果是 (升 3, 升 2, 升 1,0, 降 1)=(1,5,3,8,1)，呈现持续分歧发散，且隐含升息预期高达 0.83 码。

笔者评论: 每次会议的市场不确定性将难消除

华许宣示启动五大改革: 1. 联准会对外沟通方式；2. 资产负债表与缩表政策；3. 经济数据来源；4. 生产力、就业因应 AI 等技术变革；5. 通膨目标与货币政策框架。

总归而言，华许改革方向正确，但过犹不及，FED 预测落后且不准，因此改革经济数据来源、增添 AI 技术变革等新想法，本中心给予正向评价，但是对外沟通方式，华许本次不提交点阵图! 且言明有话要讲才召开记者会，这会引起不透明的担忧浮现。同时如果真的因为预测不准，就完全舍弃指引，甚至是改革并非渐进式，在完成前，都不提供相关改革的方向与逻辑，这会导致会议之间无法提前消化反映，增添后续 FOMC 波动度。

（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）

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字数大幅缩减，仅陈述事实。移除前瞻指引与风险平衡 → 先前暗示降息，只是时机未到的文字删除，上次已经有 3 票异议，这次完全删除维持: 经济稳健成长、中东局势而存在不确定性新增: 生产力与资本投资强劲，上修就业增长与劳动力成长相符。 →上修劳动市场，增添 AI 对生产力", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505012/l/4e4ea61b2b218e6de16cd0dd57c0723f.jpg", "content": "会后声明大改版，SEP 剧烈变动，事件效应有限\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505012/l/4e4ea61b2b218e6de16cd0dd57c0723f.jpg\" alt=\"华许并非鹰派，而是大动作改革中增添不确定性\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n本次的 FOMC 重点是华许的谈话与新改革措施，因此本次利率不升不降，且购债小幅 QE 都维持原状，不多做讨论。\n\n重点在于改变的地方，首先是会后声明大改版! \n\n<figure><img data-height=\"872\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"0.8715596330275229\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505012/m/c10a41fb2f493034286363d2ad140bcd.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505012/l/c10a41fb2f493034286363d2ad140bcd.jpg\"></figure>\n\n字数大幅缩减，仅陈述事实。移除前瞻指引与风险平衡\n\n→ 先前暗示降息，只是时机未到的文字删除，上次已经有 3 票异议，这次完全删除\n\n维持: 经济稳健成长、中东局势而存在不确定性\n\n新增: 生产力与资本投资强劲，上修就业增长与劳动力成长相符。\n\n→上修劳动市场，增添 AI 对生产力和投资的影响\n\n强调通膨偏高是供给面影响：承认通膨持续高于委员会 2% 目标，反映能源冲击，并坚定承诺委员会将实现物价稳定。\n\n另外就数据层面的 SEP 报告，也出现针对 2026 一年内的剧烈变动:\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"222\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"3.4234234234234235\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505012/m/cb4e805b582e8bcfac69077eb2bdbd08.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505012/l/cb4e805b582e8bcfac69077eb2bdbd08.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505012/l/cb4e805b582e8bcfac69077eb2bdbd08.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505012/xl/cb4e805b582e8bcfac69077eb2bdbd08.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505012/xxl/cb4e805b582e8bcfac69077eb2bdbd08.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n小幅下修今年经济成长至 2.2%、失业率至 4.3%，不过都是短期修正，后续 2 年数据持平稳定\n\n大幅上修今年通膨 PCE 2.7% 至 3.6%，核心 PCE2.7% 至 3.3%，反映能源短期波动为通膨上升主因，加上基期效应不扩增至 12 个月后，因此没有上修 2027 与之后的数据\n\n点阵图是 02:00 全球股指一度下跌的主因:\n\n正式转为年底前升息预期，幅度超出机构法人预期，但符合笔者事前 0.5~1 码升息预期\n\n普遍的机构法人自身交易员押注升息，但认为 FED 本次会相对保守，采取渐进式上移，例如高盛预期点阵图集中在 (升 1,0, 降 1)=(3,11,1)，先转为年底前不升不降，宣示降息预期结束。结果实际上的点阵图结果是 (升 3, 升 2, 升 1,0, 降 1)=(1,5,3,8,1)，呈现持续分歧发散，且隐含升息预期高达 0.83 码。\n\n笔者评论: 每次会议的市场不确定性将难消除\n\n华许宣示启动五大改革: 1. 联准会对外沟通方式；2. 资产负债表与缩表政策；3. 经济数据来源；4. 生产力、就业因应 AI 等技术变革；5. 通膨目标与货币政策框架。\n\n总归而言，华许改革方向正确，但过犹不及，FED 预测落后且不准，因此改革经济数据来源、增添 AI 技术变革等新想法，本中心给予正向评价，但是对外沟通方式，华许本次不提交点阵图! 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