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立卫(5344) 订单能见度仅到 2027 年第 1 季!AI 把客户的晶圆产能抢走

2026-11-11 19:38:17 网络 阅读(2)

立卫 2026 年第 4 季法人说明会简报

2026年11月11日(优分析/产业数据中心报导)⸺ 立卫科技(5344-TW) 的测试机台产能利用率约 90%,订单能见度却只到 2027 年第 1 季;能见度的限制在客户端,立卫的客户是消费型 IC 的设计公司,这些公司在晶圆厂与封装厂拿到的产能不足。

公司表示,AI 与 HPC 把晶圆厂、封装厂的产能吸走,客户能给的预估量只到 2027 年第 1 季,量与 2026 年第 4 季相当,2027 年的需求也持平,「今年 Q4 跟明年差不多都是需求大概都是持平」。

立卫的测试应用集中在消费型 IC,包括 USB、影像感测器、微控制器(MCU)、电源管理、混合讯号、射频与光学滑鼠感测器;公司规模不大,走的是利基市场的晶圆测试与成品测试。

10 月营收年增 2.8%

增速的变化已经出现在月营收上。10 月单月营收 3,140 万元,年增 2.8%;累计前 10 个月 3.14 亿元,年增 13.3%,单月增速降到个位数。

如下图,根据优分析产业资料库,10 月营收年增率降到 2.8%,累计年增率仍有 13.3%,单月的动能明显低于前 9 个月。

立卫月营收与年增率走势图,2026 年 10 月营收 3,140 万元、年增 2.8%

(资料来源:优分析产业资料库)

前三季的成长幅度高于 10 月。累计营收 2.82 亿元、年增 15%,第 3 季 9,678.6 万元、季增 2%、年增 14%。10 月是第 4 季的第一个月,单月增速只剩个位数,低于前 9 个月的 15%。

代工厂产能吃紧

晶圆代工厂的八吋产能利用率也在回升。TrendForce 2026 年 6 月的调查指出,全球前十大晶圆代工厂的八吋产能平均利用率在 2026 年回升到 88%,下半年预估达 90%。

同一份调查也提到,成熟制程代工价从 2026 年第 1 季起调涨 5% 到 15%,涨势可能延伸到 2027 年。

晶圆之后还有封装。MoneyDJ 2026 年 7 月的报导指出,成熟制程从晶圆制造到封装测试都吃紧,交期拉长到六到八个月,IC 设计业者即使订单还在,实际出货量仍可能因拿不到产能而减少。

两份资料指向同一件事:产能往 AI 相关的产品集中,其余再由消费型产品彼此竞争。业界向 MoneyDJ 表示,规模较小或单价较低的业者,在这种分配里拿到的片数较少。

立卫厂内的机台还有约一成未用满,订单却只排到 2027 年第 1 季。限制出货量的是客户在晶圆厂与封装厂拿到的配额,立卫的测试机台不是瓶颈。

※ 本文经「优分析」授权转载,原文出处:原文连结
※ 免责声明:文中所提的个股、基金、期货商品内容仅供参考,并非投资建议,投资人应独立判断,审慎评估风险。

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