友达⊕、长广⊕、均豪⊕、台积电7月法说会有大利多？

一、今日盘势重点

加权指数开平震荡收高，反弹力道受压抑

指数盘中一度大涨 949 点、最高 45,521 点，终场上涨 428 点，收 44,999 点。
受 10 日线、月线反压，以及中东局势再度升温、美伊冲突、外资与自营商持续调节影响，反弹未能一鼓作气。

成交量急缩，市场观望气氛浓厚

大盘成交量缩至约 9,992 亿元。
OTC 柜买指数下跌 2.33 点至 412.93 点，成交量缩至 1,776 亿元，同样受制 10 日线及月线。

筹码逐步改善

上市柜融资余额持续下降，市场杠杆逐步去化。
外资卖超缩减至 60.11 亿元，自营商卖超 45.93 亿元；投信则持续买超 137.54 亿元，内资买盘仍具支撑力。

二、后市展望

短线仍以震荡筑底为主

利空因素尚未完全消除，外资仍偏保守，市场信心仍待修复。
预估短期指数将于季线至 47,000 点附近区间震荡整理。

42K 及季线形成重要支撑

AI 产业基本面仍强劲，下档 42,000 点及季线附近具实质支撑，回档可视为健康换手。

中长期多头架构不变

AI、高效能运算 (HPC)、云端建设持续推升企业获利。
若全球未出现系统性风险，台股续朝 5 万点、甚至 6 万点迈进仍具想像空间。

三、四大利多支撑台股

(一) 外销订单续创新高

5 月外销订单 894.8 亿美元、年增 47.2%，连 16 个月正成长。
AI、HPC、云端资料中心带动资讯通信、电子、半导体设备需求全面增温。

(二) 全球 AI 资本支出大爆发

北美五大 CSP 未来三年 AI 资本支出快速攀升，2027 年可望突破 1 兆美元。
台湾完整 AI 供应链可望持续受惠，法人同步上修 2026~2028 年企业获利成长。

(三) ETF 资金形成结构性买盘

台股 ETF 规模突破 7 兆元，今年增加逾 3 兆元。
ETF 已成市场重要承接力量，即使外资持续卖超，指数仍维持长线多头格局。

(四) 第二、三季企业获利续创高

法人预估第二季上市柜获利挑战 1.7 兆元新高，第三季上看 1.8 兆元。
台积电第三季营收预估季增 7%~10%，毛利率挑战 68%~70%，持续扮演台股多头火车头。

四、产业与选股方向

AI 供应链仍是市场主轴

先进封装 (CoWoS、SoIC、CoPoS)、ASIC、高速 PCB/CCL、ABF 载板、CPO 矽光子、液冷散热、先进封测及设备持续受惠。

记忆体景气正式进入上升循环

美光财报及展望优于预期，HBM 产能已接近售罄，供需吃紧可望延续至 2027~2028 年。
华邦电 (2344-TW)、南亚科(2408-TW) 等记忆体族群评价同步提升，AI 记忆体需求持续增温。

其他值得留意族群

ASIC 设计、被动元件、MOSFET、二极体、导线架、半导体设备、自动化设备、晶圆代工、低轨卫星等中长期成长题材。

五、投资策略

** 短线：** 采「降杠杆、留核心、重节奏」策略，适度提高现金比重，避免追高。
** 中长线：** 持续布局 AI 核心供应链与具竞争优势企业，逢震荡分批承接。
** 操作原则：** 回归基本面，利用市场修正完成换手，掌握 AI 长线产业趋势带来的成长契机。

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文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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"article": { "id": 4291, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "友达⊕、长广⊕、均豪⊕、台积电7月法说会有大利多？", "shortTitle": "友达⊕、长广⊕、均豪⊕、台积电7月法说会有大利多？", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "一、今日盘势重点加权指数开平震荡收高，反弹力道受压抑指数盘中一度大涨 949 点、最高 45,521 点，终场上涨 428 点，收 44,999 点。受 10 日线、月线反压，以及中东局势再度升温、美伊冲突、外资与自营商持续调节影响，反弹未能一鼓作气。成交量急缩，市场观望气氛浓厚大盘成交量缩至约 9,992 亿元。 OTC 柜买指数下跌 2.33 点至 412.93 点，成交量缩至 1,776 亿元，同样受制 10 日线及月线。筹码逐步改善上市柜融资余额持续下降，市场杠杆逐步去化。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/l/f992adea32dd1e999a1e5a812140ab71.jpg", "content": "一、今日盘势重点\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/l/f992adea32dd1e999a1e5a812140ab71.jpg\" alt=\"友达⊕、长广⊕、均豪⊕、台积电7月法说会有大利多？\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<ol>\n<li>加权指数开平震荡收高，反弹力道受压抑</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>指数盘中一度大涨 949 点、最高 45,521 点，终场上涨 428 点，收 44,999 点。</li>\n<li>受 10 日线、月线反压，以及中东局势再度升温、美伊冲突、外资与自营商持续调节影响，反弹未能一鼓作气。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>成交量急缩，市场观望气氛浓厚</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>大盘成交量缩至约 9,992 亿元。</li>\n<li>OTC 柜买指数下跌 2.33 点至 412.93 点，成交量缩至 1,776 亿元，同样受制 10 日线及月线。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>筹码逐步改善</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>上市柜融资余额持续下降，市场杠杆逐步去化。</li>\n<li>外资卖超缩减至 60.11 亿元，自营商卖超 45.93 亿元；投信则持续买超 137.54 亿元，内资买盘仍具支撑力。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n二、后市展望\n\n<ol>\n<li>短线仍以震荡筑底为主</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>利空因素尚未完全消除，外资仍偏保守，市场信心仍待修复。</li>\n<li>预估短期指数将于季线至 47,000 点附近区间震荡整理。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>42K 及季线形成重要支撑</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li> AI 产业基本面仍强劲，下档 42,000 点及季线附近具实质支撑，回档可视为健康换手。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>中长期多头架构不变</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li> AI、高效能运算 (HPC)、云端建设持续推升企业获利。</li>\n<li>若全球未出现系统性风险，台股续朝 5 万点、甚至 6 万点迈进仍具想像空间。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n三、四大利多支撑台股\n\n(一) 外销订单续创新高\n\n<ul>\n<li>5 月外销订单 894.8 亿美元、年增 47.2%，连 16 个月正成长。</li>\n<li>AI、HPC、云端资料中心带动资讯通信、电子、半导体设备需求全面增温。</li>\n</ul>\n\n(二) 全球 AI 资本支出大爆发\n\n<ul>\n<li>北美五大 CSP 未来三年 AI 资本支出快速攀升，2027 年可望突破 1 兆美元。</li>\n<li>台湾完整 AI 供应链可望持续受惠，法人同步上修 2026~2028 年企业获利成长。</li>\n</ul>\n\n(三) ETF 资金形成结构性买盘\n\n<ul>\n<li>台股 ETF 规模突破 7 兆元，今年增加逾 3 兆元。</li>\n<li>ETF 已成市场重要承接力量，即使外资持续卖超，指数仍维持长线多头格局。</li>\n</ul>\n\n(四) 第二、三季企业获利续创高\n\n<ul>\n<li>法人预估第二季上市柜获利挑战 1.7 兆元新高，第三季上看 1.8 兆元。</li>\n<li>台积电第三季营收预估季增 7%~10%，毛利率挑战 68%~70%，持续扮演台股多头火车头。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n四、产业与选股方向\n\n<ol>\n<li>AI 供应链仍是市场主轴</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>先进封装 (CoWoS、SoIC、CoPoS)、ASIC、高速 PCB/CCL、ABF 载板、CPO 矽光子、液冷散热、先进封测及设备持续受惠。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>记忆体景气正式进入上升循环</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>美光财报及展望优于预期，HBM 产能已接近售罄，供需吃紧可望延续至 2027~2028 年。</li>\n<li>华邦电 (2344-TW)、南亚科(2408-TW) 等记忆体族群评价同步提升，AI 记忆体需求持续增温。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>其他值得留意族群</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li> ASIC 设计、被动元件、MOSFET、二极体、导线架、半导体设备、自动化设备、晶圆代工、低轨卫星等中长期成长题材。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n五、投资策略\n\n<ul>\n<li>** 短线：** 采「降杠杆、留核心、重节奏」策略，适度提高现金比重，避免追高。</li>\n<li>** 中长线：** 持续布局 AI 核心供应链与具竞争优势企业，逢震荡分批承接。</li>\n<li>** 操作原则：** 回归基本面，利用市场修正完成换手，掌握 AI 长线产业趋势带来的成长契机。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n眼前的黑不是黑 \n这是天上掉下来的礼物 \n当强势股出现急跌修正 \n散户用情绪操作看到的都是恐惧 \n我看到的是积极抓绝佳进场机会 \n只要你依然认同 \nAI 是不可逆的大趋势 \n台股爆发好公司逢低布局的价值 \n现在正是资金从旧主流 \n转向新主流的重要时刻 \n那么本周将会是你 \n下一波大获利的起手式 \n不要等股价大涨后 \n才后悔没有提早上车 \n越早卡位获利越惊人 \n我们一起拚找回你的信心 \n举手说这次你也要一起大赚\n\n<a href=\"https://forms.gle/82PcvrqF61eFWnv78\">https://forms.gle/82PcvrqF61eFWnv78</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"307\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.3257328990228012\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/m/3673a53c1c5f580dde7170e74b66b19a.jpg\" data-width=\"407\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/m/3673a53c1c5f580dde7170e74b66b19a.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"288\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.4131944444444444\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/m/19e1c6199ade1c257590654c0ae97315.jpg\" data-width=\"407\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/m/19e1c6199ade1c257590654c0ae97315.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"286\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.4230769230769231\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/m/fc555d96bfc648c12f22b76f4ba0323e.jpg\" data-width=\"407\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/m/fc555d96bfc648c12f22b76f4ba0323e.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"306\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.3660130718954249\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/m/accafc9b23f070bd6758264d801e0604.jpg\" data-width=\"418\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/m/accafc9b23f070bd6758264d801e0604.jpg\"></figure>\n\n※如果各位有任何持股上的问题，不晓得该如何处理或调整，欢迎透过 LINE@直接私讯大师兄，把你的持股状况写清楚，并留下你的姓名及连络电话，大师兄情义相挺来助你一臂之力，帮你把不对、不会涨的杂货店，换到对的、未来会大涨的精品股上，一个转念就可以改变你的一生，感恩！\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/cU34omr_Gck\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n工商时报绩效竞赛 13 冠王、卓越绩效傲视同业、专业实力有目共赌！ \n更多第一手讯息、以及飙股机会→请加入大师兄飙股鑫天地的大家族 \nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a> \nTelegram 连结网址：<a href=\"https://t.me/gold0999\">https://t.me/gold0999</a> \nYT 个人专属频道：<a href=\"mailto:youtube.com/@master55688\">youtube.com/@master55688</a> \n举手之劳 \n记得！按赞、订阅、分享、开启小铃铛 \n让更多人可以看见我们的影片 \n咨询专线 : 02-2321-9933(24 小时专人服务)\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"520\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4615384615384615\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/m/94e5e7649fea9ea06f3c41ebd3351c1c.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6516137/l/94e5e7649fea9ea06f3c41ebd3351c1c.jpg\"></figure>\n\n文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10658.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 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