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美国期中选举倒数一个多月 科技股可能面临麻烦?

2026-09-24 12:41:57 网络 阅读(1)

《巴隆周刊》报导,距离美国期中选举只剩一个多月,而这场选举可能对近期涨势强劲的AI类股,以及其他几个产业造成影响。

美国期中选举倒数一个多月 科技股可能面临麻烦?

花旗(Citi)在周二晚间发布的一份研究报告中提出了对即将到来选举的预测。该行表示,如果民主党拿下众议院与参议院,并不会感到意外。

花旗美国股票策略师Scott Chronert表示,无论选举结果如何,期中选举很可能对标普500指数的基本面「不会造成太大影响」,但如果民主党在两院都取得控制权,可能会影响数个产业。

他表示,在这种情况下,保险、医疗保健设备与制药类股可能表现相对良好,原因是市场预期民主党将恢复先前失去的部分医疗保健保障。

Chronert补充指出,晶片投资人「偏好共和党控制局面,可能与AI立法风险有关」,但他也指出,总统川普仍有权否决国会议员试图推动的任何AI监管措施。

部分民主党政治人物在期中选举前已提出加强AI监管的主张。川普则拒绝放慢这项技术发展的呼吁,并表示美国有必要以比中国更快的速度推进AI发展。

通膨、经济,以及伊朗战争,也是选民正在权衡的议题。

目前的市场预测显示,共和党可能难以维持众议院或参议院其中任何一院的控制权。截至周三,预测平台Polymarket的交易价格反映出民主党同时拿下参众两院的机率约为66%。

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      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614551/l/c0003fbe298e70c10a96b9e8f8c4b076.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-23T18:00:04.000Z",
      "description": "传川普政府拟禁美国柴油出口90天,盼增供应压低创纪录油价、缓解期中选举压力。
AAA指全美柴油均价升至每加仑6.52美元,月涨91美分、年增2.83美元;农业州共和党要求白宫出手。
莱特、贝森特、伯伯姆反对全面禁令;业界忧炼油厂减产,反推升汽油与航空燃油价格。",
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    {
      "id": 17209,
      "title": "〈能源盘后〉伊朗总统喊「永不投降」油价反弹近4% Brent重返103美元",
      "shortTitle": "〈能源盘后〉伊朗总统喊「永不投降」油价反弹近4% Brent",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614578/l/cc13cc87f76a5b3f42358e4c34011ace.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-23T21:00:10.000Z",
      "description": "Brent收103.08美元、WTI92.16美元;伊朗总统称「永不投降」,油价震荡走高。
沙乌地东西管线恢复运作但输量偏低,阿美目标逐步回到日约400万桶。
EIA:美国原油库存增300万桶至4.264亿桶;柴油出口禁令传闻遭白宫否认。",
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    {
      "id": 17216,
      "title": "市场逼宫升息 伊尔艾朗警告:全球央行恐陷危险循环",
      "shortTitle": "市场逼宫升息 伊尔艾朗警告:全球央行恐陷危险循环",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-23T22:20:04.000Z",
      "description": "伊尔艾朗忧市场预期推动下,联准会与其他央行若持续紧缩,恐形成危险升息循环。
他指货币政策非解决当前经济金融挑战最佳工具,仅靠联准会压通膨可能让市场与经济陷困境。
他主张降通膨应由立法机关推动供需解方,否则美国恐再被视为「唯一的解方」。",
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    {
      "id": 17223,
      "title": "〈贵金属盘后〉Fed官员接连放鹰 黄金挫逾1%逼近一周最低",
      "shortTitle": "〈贵金属盘后〉Fed官员接连放鹰 黄金挫逾1%逼近一周最低",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614111/l/da6e681e0957a50da8bbb069caaab5f4.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-23T22:49:41.000Z",
      "description": "黄金周三跌逾1%,现货报4282.53美元、期货4318.40美元,盘中触及9月17日来低点
Fed官员释鹰派讯号,市场预期10月升息77%、12月95%,美元升至两个月高点压抑金价
川普警告伊朗、油价一度破100美元;白银跌3.9%、白金跌5%、钯金跌3.7%",
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      "shortTitle": "最强AI大学诞生!黄仁勋、奥特曼、纳德拉当讲师 瞄准矽谷顶尖",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614606/l/387c2dd9a63088436e0cc4ce6e229ec5.jpg",
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      "description": "a16z创办Horowitz Andreessen Academy,两年制寄宿校,2027年秋招收学生。
HAA已募4,200万美元,奥特曼、黄仁勋等列授课/合作名单。
课程主打Co-op、Course、Pursuit,学生三分之一时间在Anthropic、Google、OpenAI等企业实习。",
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    {
      "id": 17228,
      "title": "美股重点新闻摘要2026年9月24日",
      "shortTitle": "美股重点新闻摘要2026年9月24日",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614313/l/db2d6294a5884924510a072cfe195733.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-24T00:02:58.000Z",
      "description": "美5年期公债殖利率升破5%,创2007年来首见,市场押Fed续升息
台积电传2027年1月起调涨晶圆代工价3%至6%,苹果iPhone成本恐增
辉达股价攻高暂歇,IonQ因量子突破与辉达合作大涨5%",
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    {
      "id": 17229,
      "title": "习近平抵达华府 川普接机画面曝光",
      "shortTitle": "习近平抵达华府 川普接机画面曝光",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-23T23:44:45.000Z",
      "description": "习近平抵达华府,川普与夫人梅兰妮亚在安德鲁斯空军基地接机。
川普称此行「举世瞩目」,盼与习近平深入交换意见,推动美中关系发展。
习近平指中美应成伙伴非对手,盼与川普就两国关系、世界局势等议题交流,拓展合作空间。",
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      "id": 17240,
      "title": "川普告民调机构败诉 爱荷华法官:第一修正案保障政治言论",
      "shortTitle": "川普告民调机构败诉 爱荷华法官:第一修正案保障政治言论",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614712/l/3861b32e3ef99e143f455397cedc3c13.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-24T01:30:13.000Z",
      "description": "法官驳回川普对《Des Moines Register》与民调专家Selzer的诉讼,认定2024总统大选前民调属第一修正案保障的政治言论。
法官指民调、预测涉对未来选举的主观判断,川普主张其刻意偏差、捏造,欺诈与消费者欺骗不成立。
判决唯恐对新闻媒体与民调机关造成寒蝉效应;川普律师团称将上诉。",
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      "id": 17241,
      "title": "川普首次会晤委内瑞拉代总统 双方满脸笑容",
      "shortTitle": "川普首次会晤委内瑞拉代总统 双方满脸笑容",
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罗德里格斯称会谈是推进委美在能源、矿业和安全关系的历史性步骤。
川普称马杜洛是「无法无天的独裁者」。",
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    "title": "美国期中选举倒数一个多月 科技股可能面临麻烦?",
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    "description": "花旗称美国期中选举恐影响AI与部分产业,若民主党拿下参众两院,保险、医疗保健设备与制药可能相对受惠。
Scott Chronert指选举对标普500基本面影响不大,但晶片投资人偏好共和党掌权,因忧AI立法风险。
川普可否决AI监管法案;Polymarket显示民主党同时拿下参众两院机率约66%。",
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    "content": "<p>《巴隆周刊》报导,距离美国期中选举只剩一个多月,而这场选举可能对近期涨势强劲的AI类股,以及其他几个产业造成影响。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614601/l/50387e02c814667042b7d3994fd31e76.jpg\" alt=\"美国期中选举倒数一个多月 科技股可能面临麻烦?\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>花旗(Citi)在周二晚间发布的一份研究报告中提出了对即将到来选举的预测。该行表示,如果民主党拿下众议院与参议院,并不会感到意外。</p>\n\n<p>花旗美国股票策略师Scott Chronert表示,无论选举结果如何,期中选举很可能对标普500指数的基本面「不会造成太大影响」,但如果民主党在两院都取得控制权,可能会影响数个产业。</p>\n\n<p>他表示,在这种情况下,保险、医疗保健设备与制药类股可能表现相对良好,原因是市场预期民主党将恢复先前失去的部分医疗保健保障。</p>\n\n<p>Chronert补充指出,晶片投资人「偏好共和党控制局面,可能与AI立法风险有关」,但他也指出,总统川普仍有权否决国会议员试图推动的任何AI监管措施。</p>\n\n<p>部分民主党政治人物在期中选举前已提出加强AI监管的主张。川普则拒绝放慢这项技术发展的呼吁,并表示美国有必要以比中国更快的速度推进AI发展。</p>\n\n<p>通膨、经济,以及伊朗战争,也是选民正在权衡的议题。</p>\n\n<p>目前的市场预测显示,共和党可能难以维持众议院或参议院其中任何一院的控制权。截至周三,预测平台Polymarket的交易价格反映出民主党同时拿下参众两院的机率约为66%。</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17228.html\" title=\"美股重点新闻摘要2026年9月24日\">美股重点新闻摘要2026年9月24日</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17293.html\" title=\"全球抛售潮烧到日本 10年期日债殖利率飙上30年新高\">全球抛售潮烧到日本 10年期日债殖利率飙上30年新高</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17286.html\" title=\"美股泡沫化疑虑升温?渣打:评价合理、获利动能强劲 仍有上涨空间\">美股泡沫化疑虑升温?渣打:评价合理、获利动能强劲 仍有上涨空间</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17229.html\" title=\"习近平抵达华府 川普接机画面曝光\">习近平抵达华府 川普接机画面曝光</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17294.html\" title=\"若获准进入美国市场 中国车厂市占率可能突破10%\">若获准进入美国市场 中国车厂市占率可能突破10%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17205.html\" title=\"川普急着救选情!白宫传拟禁柴油出口90天 燃油价格恐不降反升\">川普急着救选情!白宫传拟禁柴油出口90天 燃油价格恐不降反升</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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