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"title": "谁算得准?小摩vs高盛预测中东石油流量:一个说整体89%、一个说回到2025年平均值",
"shortTitle": "谁算得准?小摩vs高盛预测中东石油流量:一个说整体89%、一",
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"description": "小摩、高盛称中东原油流量回升,但成品油与航运安全仍落后,属「不均衡复苏」。 小摩估荷姆兹海峡近每日1300万桶;高盛称波斯湾出口过去一周回至每日2330万桶,9月油市大致平衡。 供应恢复预期压低油价,布兰特跌至102.59美元、WTI至89.38美元;但美伊冲突与保险成本仍支撑油价。",
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"content": "<p>摩根大通(下称小摩)与高盛周二(29日)同声预测,中东原油流量正逐步回复,但成品油与航运安全仍落后。小摩团队称「中东石油出口动脉重新流动」:该区原油出口反弹至每日1750万桶,约达战前98%;柴油、汽油等成品油仅每日300万桶,为战前58%。若以过去五天、十天移均计算,整体石油流量约为2025年水准89%。在美伊冲突进入第八个月背景下,这属于「不均衡复苏」。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6618661/l/c90057c44a306c26b24127e7d90c62d4.jpg\" alt=\"谁算得准?小摩vs高盛预测中东石油流量:一个说整体89%、一个说回到2025年平均值\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>荷姆兹海峡为核心变数。根据小摩预估,该水道流量已近6月底高点、约每日1300万桶,主要由沙乌地阿拉伯带动;沙国东西输油管本月受损后已恢复约一半,改经红海港口分流。</p>\n\n<p>分析师指出,流量回升不代表安全改善,而是业界在船只遭袭、封锁与保险溢价下维持营运的能力增强。伊朗宣称掌控荷姆兹海峡,美国否认并封伊朗港口、协助其他船只通行,故不同预测差异大。美国财长贝森特表示,荷姆兹海峡有时达每日1700万桶,道达尔执行长则估计约1000万桶。</p>\n\n<p>高盛统计则更宽,把「暗流」秘密运输计入,波斯湾出口过去一周恢复至每日2330万桶,与2025年均値相若,9月全球油市「大致平衡」。</p>\n\n<p>高盛数据显示,伊朗出口下滑,但沙国及其他波斯湾产油国补位,沙国9月出口估值倍增,并超过去年均値。</p>\n\n<p>国际油价则受供应恢复预期回落,周二布兰特原油价格下跌2.69美元至102.59美元,跌幅2.6%;WTI跌3.22美元至89.38美元,跌幅3.5%。</p>\n\n<p>不过,市场仍计入美伊冲突升级风险,高盛提醒波斯湾基建若再受袭,原油价格仍有支撑。在美伊战事、荷姆兹不稳与成品油修复慢下,9月油价月线仍可能连3月收红。</p>\n\n<p>对炼油厂与冬季柴油供应而言,原油回量不等于成品油回量,红海、海峡双线保险成本仍构成通膨压力。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17900.html\" title=\"审计时代要来了?香港证监会将虚拟资产平台纳入传统证券审计监管\">审计时代要来了?香港证监会将虚拟资产平台纳入传统证券审计监管</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17911.html\" title=\"京港高铁雄商段通车 北京南下第三条高铁大通道成形\">京港高铁雄商段通车 北京南下第三条高铁大通道成形</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17928.html\" title=\"进口配额已用尽 中国10月1日起对巴西牛肉加征55%关税\">进口配额已用尽 中国10月1日起对巴西牛肉加征55%关税</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17920.html\" title=\"英国第2季GDP优于预期 但经济学家忧下半年表现\">英国第2季GDP优于预期 但经济学家忧下半年表现</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17929.html\" title=\"伊朗战争揭示「精准规模」时代!低成本无人机改变攻防成本、美军武器库存成瓶颈\">伊朗战争揭示「精准规模」时代!低成本无人机改变攻防成本、美军武器库存成瓶颈</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17871.html\" title=\"伊朗称再次捕获美国无人潜航器 美伊水下暗战升级\">伊朗称再次捕获美国无人潜航器 美伊水下暗战升级</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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"createdAt": "2026-09-30T09:00:06.000Z",
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