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"title": "全球柴油危机蔓延 专家警示二次通膨风险",
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"description": "EIA称美国柴油库存创20多年新低，预估2026年Q4零售柴油价升至每加仑5.55美元。 IEA指全球柴油供应「极度紧张」；中东战事、乌军袭俄炼油厂及美国炼厂96%开工率加剧短缺。 川普考虑禁柴油出口；欧盟警告重创经济，俄、中出口限制已推升英法菲等地价格与供应危机。",
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"content": "<p>地缘政治冲突加剧与主要产油国出口限制共同影响，使全球柴油及中间馏分油供应陷入多年来最严峻的「完美风暴」，多国柴油价格飙升至历史高位。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620263/l/40eb391b50a62717a462ebb3e51b897e.jpg\" alt=\"全球柴油危机蔓延 专家警示二次通膨风险\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>美国能源资讯局(EIA)在其短期能源展望报告中指出，美国柴油库存已降至 20 多年来最低水准，并将 2026 年第四季零售柴油价格预测调高至每加仑 5.55 美元。国际能源署(IEA)署长Fatih Birol警告，全球柴油市场正面临「极度紧张」的供应形势，主因是中东战事、乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，以及美国炼油厂开工率高达 96% 等产能极限所致。</p>\n\n<p>对于价格走势与经济影响，业界专家一致认为高油价冲击恐将长期化。达拉斯联准银行调查显示，48% 的受访能源企业高管预计，柴油与原油之间的价差需要四个季度(一年以上)才能恢复至正常水准。</p>\n\n<p>达拉斯联准银行调查的一位能源公司高管强调：「柴油是经济运作的关键燃料，市场才刚开始感受到高油价对整体经济的冲击」。</p>\n\n<p>大宗商品策略师Jeff Currie与 GasBuddy 分析师 Patrick De Haan 分别预测，在美国 11 月期中选举前油价居高不下已是无可避免的趋势。</p>\n\n<p>面对供应紧张与期中选举压力，美国总统川普将柴油短缺归咎于乌克兰，并表示正「非常认真地考虑」全面禁止柴油出口。美方财政部长贝森特(Scott Bessent)与能源部长赖特(Chris Wright)要求欧洲盟友在六个月内释放 1.2 亿桶战略柴油储备以平抑油价，否则不排除祭出出口禁令。</p>\n\n<p>对此，欧盟贸易专员Maros Sefcovic公开反驳，强调任何限制柴油出口的措施都会对欧洲经济带来极其剧烈的负面后果。同时，德州州长Greg Abbott已签署紧急状态公告，允许原本用于农场的「染色柴油」合法上路并放宽卡车限重，内布拉斯加等州亦暂时豁免燃油税以缓解供应压力。</p>\n\n<p>在全球供应端，俄罗斯因炼油厂遭乌克兰袭击导致原油加工能力大跌近 30%，已将柴油出口禁令延长至 2026 年 10 月底；中国也宣布无限期暂停成品油出口。</p>\n\n<p>这场危机正迅速波及消费端，英国财政大臣希利(John Healey)坦言英国柴油价格正处于「极端状态」；法国更有高达 11% 至 14% 的加油站陷入脱销；菲律宾马尼拉柴油单月暴涨逾 18 比索，引发运输工会发动全国大罢工。</p>\n\n<p>世界大型企业联合会首席经济学家Ben Peterson指出，高昂的柴油与运输支出直接侵蚀家庭可支配收入，导致消费者信心跌至 12 年新低。知名经济学家彼得希夫(Peter Schiff)则警告，能源价格攀升将加剧通膨，联准会若采取降息甚至可能引发二次通膨。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18232.html\" title=\"美光财报佳涨逾3% 分析师的关键问题有答案了\">美光财报佳涨逾3% 分析师的关键问题有答案了</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18266.html\" title=\"Moderna今年股价飙逾6倍 跃进Nasdaq-100 取代华纳兄弟探索\">Moderna今年股价飙逾6倍 跃进Nasdaq-100 取代华纳兄弟探索</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18267.html\" title=\"川普：任期结束前给予政府成员「预防性赦免」免受起诉威胁\">川普：任期结束前给予政府成员「预防性赦免」免受起诉威胁</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18306.html\" title=\"美银警告高油价成第4季头号威胁 金价恐探3750美元\">美银警告高油价成第4季头号威胁 金价恐探3750美元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18200.html\" title=\"全球债市为何跌跌不休？十大原因一次看 美债殖利率年底冲6%\">全球债市为何跌跌不休？十大原因一次看 美债殖利率年底冲6%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18305.html\" title=\"中国新能源车金九旺季表现分化：比亚迪、吉利海外暴增 新势力阵营迎来洗牌期\">中国新能源车金九旺季表现分化：比亚迪、吉利海外暴增 新势力阵营迎来洗牌期</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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