天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-油轮重返荷姆兹难救通膨！布兰特油价破百炼油瓶颈加剧美债抛售潮

油轮重返荷姆兹海峡，原本应该有助于压低原油、汽油与柴油价格，进而抑制通膨并降低全球借贷成本，但目前情况并非如此：供应链将原油转化为燃料的环节仍遭受冲击，持续推高能源价格，助长美债卖压。

油轮重返荷姆兹难救通膨！布兰特油价破百炼油瓶颈加剧美债抛售潮

在美军削弱伊朗对荷姆兹海峡控制的情况下，石油运输量逐渐回升至接近战前水准，但作为全球原油期货基准的布兰特原油周四(1日)仍大涨4.4%至每桶102.31美元。由美国汽车协会(AAA)追踪的美国汽油平均价格仍维持在每加仑4.41美元以上。10年期美债殖利率本周则升至24年来最高水准。

华尔街日报(WSJ)报导，导致债券殖利率居高不下的因素，来自多项彼此交织的威胁，而这些因素正持续挤压石油市场：

荷姆兹海峡的船舶通行量预估分歧很大，交易员担心局势再度升温，随时可能让供应量大幅下降。
叶门胡塞武装(Houthi)持续威胁阿拉伯半岛周边同样运输石油的航线。
距离中东数千英里之外，乌克兰持续发动空袭，锁定俄罗斯炼油厂，而俄罗斯炼油厂过去一直是供应柴油给许多工业经济体的重要来源。

这些因素推高了原油运输与燃料加工成本，进而提高汽车、卡车、商用飞机及农业设备等各类交通与生产工具的营运成本。

荷姆兹运输恢复成品油供应仍吃紧

这项瓶颈正让美国通膨受到后续冲击，影响可能持续到11月期中选举之后，并迫使联准会(Fed)考虑未来数月进一步升息。与此同时，债券市场早就难以消化人工智慧(AI)相关债务大量涌现、庞大的财政赤字，以及足以让通膨持续超标的强劲经济。

10年期美债殖利率周四虽然稍稍回落至5.233%，但在周三为止的一季创下1994年以来最大单季升幅，并推动美国房贷利率突破7%。

瑞银投资银行(UBS Investment Bank)全球经济与策略主管Arend Kapteyn说：「目前市场对美国与伊朗是否朝某种正式协议取得进展，以及局势是否可能进一步中断供应，仍高度敏感。从央行的角度来看，不能只关注原油，还要关注(炼制)成品油，而成品油市场非常吃紧。」

库存缓冲大减

目前美国海军逐渐削弱伊朗攻击油轮或附近能源设施的能力，在战争开打八个月后，波斯湾产油国与航运公司也愈来愈擅长抵御或躲避攻击。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师预估，中东原油出口量近期如今仅比战前水准低7%。

但考量到许多油轮关闭追踪系统，或在船与船之间转移货物以降低遭到攻击的风险，其他分析师对航运恢复程度仍抱持审慎态度。

伊朗在叶门的代理人胡塞武装再次攻击区域航线，也促使交易员在持有部位纳入更高的风险溢价，进而支撑能源价格。

伊朗战争爆发至今，市场一直靠从中国、欧洲到美国的库存提供缓冲，但如今库存已大幅下降，需要重新补充，而且几乎没有犯错的空间。这种不确定性让交易员紧盯美国与中国可能限制燃料出口的消息。

中东成品油出口比战前低40%

尽管原油期货价格已从近期高点回落，但实体原油货物的价格仍维持高档，显示炼油商争相锁定短期供应。用来追踪即期交割的基准价格、北海现货原油价格是周四报每桶127.42美元。

CIBC Private Wealth资深能源交易员Rebecca Babin说：「无论数据显示有多少原油正经过荷姆兹海峡，市场的需求显然仍存在。」

摩根大通(JP Morgan)预估，中东汽油、柴油与航空燃油等成品油出口量，目前仍比战前水准低约40%。

原油进入市场成本大增

还要考虑一点：油轮运输量虽然回升，但原油进入市场的成本也大幅飙升。从波斯湾向西航行的油轮，有时必须绕行非洲南端，以避开胡塞武装的攻击威胁。此外，许多航运公司会将石油从波斯湾运往荷姆兹海峡外围，再在当地转运给前往其他目的地的船只。

这些因素占用了全球大量超大型油轮运力，并推高运费。根据Argus数据，从中东运送原油至中国的超大型油轮，近期一趟约21天的航程，成本相当于每桶35美元，而战争爆发前一天的成本还不到每桶7美元。

中东炼油产能下降柴油与原油价差创纪录

当原油抵达炼油厂后，成本压力又进一步扩大。由于中东炼油产能下降，加上乌克兰攻击俄罗斯炼油厂，促使莫斯科限制柴油出口，交易员愿意向其他仍有能力大量生产燃料的企业支付溢价。

在纽约，柴油期货近期价格约为原油价格的两倍，柴油与原油之间的价差远超过过去任何纪录，推升加油站的批发成本。

许多能源业高层预料这种情况将持续。达拉斯联准银行本周公布的调查显示，48%的受访者认为，柴油价格与原油成本之间的价差至少需要一年才会恢复至2025年水准，约36%的受访者对汽油价差也持相同看法。

殖利率仍可能走高

美国企业在年初或战争爆发后初期锁定的部分避险成本，如今即将到期，让农民、居家修缮商店及卡车业者等企业正面临艰难抉择。

U.S. Bank商品团队主管Charlie Macnamara指出，目前较高的价格「将开始渗透到这些企业的避险计划中，最终也会传导至终端消费者」。

尽管能源价格仍处于令人难以承受的高档，分析师认为，能源价格目前还没有高到足以迫使经济大幅放缓的程度，尤其美国经济仍受到人工智慧(AI)热潮与创历史新高的股市支撑。

Principal Asset Management首席全球策略师Seema Shah说：「如果经济韧性与投资需求持续，殖利率可能仍有进一步走高的空间。」

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运费与炼制成本飙升推升通膨，美国房贷利率突破7%，Fed未来数月升息压力升高。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620271/l/44b8ad14488a4666acfc8286c1a09fd0.jpg", "content": "<p>油轮重返荷姆兹海峡，原本应该有助于压低原油、汽油与柴油价格，进而抑制通膨并降低全球借贷成本，但目前情况并非如此：供应链将原油转化为燃料的环节仍遭受冲击，持续推高能源价格，助长美债卖压。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620271/l/44b8ad14488a4666acfc8286c1a09fd0.jpg\" alt=\"油轮重返荷姆兹难救通膨！布兰特油价破百炼油瓶颈加剧美债抛售潮\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>在美军削弱伊朗对荷姆兹海峡控制的情况下，石油运输量逐渐回升至接近战前水准，但作为全球原油期货基准的布兰特原油周四(1日)仍大涨4.4%至每桶102.31美元。由美国汽车协会(AAA)追踪的美国汽油平均价格仍维持在每加仑4.41美元以上。10年期美债殖利率本周则升至24年来最高水准。</p>\n\n<p>华尔街日报(WSJ)报导，导致债券殖利率居高不下的因素，来自多项彼此交织的威胁，而这些因素正持续挤压石油市场：</p>\n\n<ul>\n<li>荷姆兹海峡的船舶通行量预估分歧很大，交易员担心局势再度升温，随时可能让供应量大幅下降。</li>\n<li>叶门胡塞武装(Houthi)持续威胁阿拉伯半岛周边同样运输石油的航线。</li>\n<li>距离中东数千英里之外，乌克兰持续发动空袭，锁定俄罗斯炼油厂，而俄罗斯炼油厂过去一直是供应柴油给许多工业经济体的重要来源。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<p>这些因素推高了原油运输与燃料加工成本，进而提高汽车、卡车、商用飞机及农业设备等各类交通与生产工具的营运成本。</p>\n\n<h6>荷姆兹运输恢复成品油供应仍吃紧</h6>\n\n<p>这项瓶颈正让美国通膨受到后续冲击，影响可能持续到11月期中选举之后，并迫使联准会(Fed)考虑未来数月进一步升息。与此同时，债券市场早就难以消化人工智慧(AI)相关债务大量涌现、庞大的财政赤字，以及足以让通膨持续超标的强劲经济。</p>\n\n<p>10年期美债殖利率周四虽然稍稍回落至5.233%，但在周三为止的一季创下1994年以来最大单季升幅，并推动美国房贷利率突破7%。</p>\n\n<p>瑞银投资银行(UBS Investment Bank)全球经济与策略主管Arend Kapteyn说：「目前市场对美国与伊朗是否朝某种正式协议取得进展，以及局势是否可能进一步中断供应，仍高度敏感。从央行的角度来看，不能只关注原油，还要关注(炼制)成品油，而成品油市场非常吃紧。」</p>\n\n<h6>库存缓冲大减</h6>\n\n<p>目前美国海军逐渐削弱伊朗攻击油轮或附近能源设施的能力，在战争开打八个月后，波斯湾产油国与航运公司也愈来愈擅长抵御或躲避攻击。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师预估，中东原油出口量近期如今仅比战前水准低7%。</p>\n\n<p>但考量到许多油轮关闭追踪系统，或在船与船之间转移货物以降低遭到攻击的风险，其他分析师对航运恢复程度仍抱持审慎态度。</p>\n\n<p>伊朗在叶门的代理人胡塞武装再次攻击区域航线，也促使交易员在持有部位纳入更高的风险溢价，进而支撑能源价格。</p>\n\n<p>伊朗战争爆发至今，市场一直靠从中国、欧洲到美国的库存提供缓冲，但如今库存已大幅下降，需要重新补充，而且几乎没有犯错的空间。这种不确定性让交易员紧盯美国与中国可能限制燃料出口的消息。</p>\n\n<h6>中东成品油出口比战前低40%</h6>\n\n<p>尽管原油期货价格已从近期高点回落，但实体原油货物的价格仍维持高档，显示炼油商争相锁定短期供应。用来追踪即期交割的基准价格、北海现货原油价格是周四报每桶127.42美元。</p>\n\n<p>CIBC Private Wealth资深能源交易员Rebecca Babin说：「无论数据显示有多少原油正经过荷姆兹海峡，市场的需求显然仍存在。」</p>\n\n<p>摩根大通(JP Morgan)预估，中东汽油、柴油与航空燃油等成品油出口量，目前仍比战前水准低约40%。</p>\n\n<h6>原油进入市场成本大增</h6>\n\n<p>还要考虑一点：油轮运输量虽然回升，但原油进入市场的成本也大幅飙升。从波斯湾向西航行的油轮，有时必须绕行非洲南端，以避开胡塞武装的攻击威胁。此外，许多航运公司会将石油从波斯湾运往荷姆兹海峡外围，再在当地转运给前往其他目的地的船只。</p>\n\n<p>这些因素占用了全球大量超大型油轮运力，并推高运费。根据Argus数据，从中东运送原油至中国的超大型油轮，近期一趟约21天的航程，成本相当于每桶35美元，而战争爆发前一天的成本还不到每桶7美元。</p>\n\n<h6>中东炼油产能下降柴油与原油价差创纪录</h6>\n\n<p>当原油抵达炼油厂后，成本压力又进一步扩大。由于中东炼油产能下降，加上乌克兰攻击俄罗斯炼油厂，促使莫斯科限制柴油出口，交易员愿意向其他仍有能力大量生产燃料的企业支付溢价。</p>\n\n<p>在纽约，柴油期货近期价格约为原油价格的两倍，柴油与原油之间的价差远超过过去任何纪录，推升加油站的批发成本。</p>\n\n<p>许多能源业高层预料这种情况将持续。达拉斯联准银行本周公布的调查显示，48%的受访者认为，柴油价格与原油成本之间的价差至少需要一年才会恢复至2025年水准，约36%的受访者对汽油价差也持相同看法。</p>\n\n<h6>殖利率仍可能走高</h6>\n\n<p>美国企业在年初或战争爆发后初期锁定的部分避险成本，如今即将到期，让农民、居家修缮商店及卡车业者等企业正面临艰难抉择。</p>\n\n<p>U.S. Bank商品团队主管Charlie Macnamara指出，目前较高的价格「将开始渗透到这些企业的避险计划中，最终也会传导至终端消费者」。</p>\n\n<p>尽管能源价格仍处于令人难以承受的高档，分析师认为，能源价格目前还没有高到足以迫使经济大幅放缓的程度，尤其美国经济仍受到人工智慧(AI)热潮与创历史新高的股市支撑。</p>\n\n<p>Principal Asset Management首席全球策略师Seema Shah说：「如果经济韧性与投资需求持续，殖利率可能仍有进一步走高的空间。」</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18353.html\" title=\"美债反弹难掩紧缩背景！华尔街警告：今晚非农就业数据恐得「崩盘」　才能扭转升息定价\">美债反弹难掩紧缩背景！华尔街警告：今晚非农就业数据恐得「崩盘」　才能扭转升息定价</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18381.html\" title=\"柏瑞投信10/1更名「大都会投信」 30档境内基金全面更名\">柏瑞投信10/1更名「大都会投信」 30档境内基金全面更名</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18338.html\" title=\"投资雷达》油价再掀通膨警报？会重演通膨失控或停滞性通膨吗？\">投资雷达》油价再掀通膨警报？会重演通膨失控或停滞性通膨吗？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18337.html\" title=\"半导体底蕴与资料中心热潮：马来西亚重塑全球科技供应链的新角色\">半导体底蕴与资料中心热潮：马来西亚重塑全球科技供应链的新角色</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18379.html\" title=\"欧债疑虑引发避险潮瑞士法郎再成为避险宠儿\">欧债疑虑引发避险潮瑞士法郎再成为避险宠儿</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18392.html\" title=\"川普施压后达协议！G7将释出最多1亿桶原油与柴油救油价\">川普施压后达协议！G7将释出最多1亿桶原油与柴油救油价</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 1, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6620271", "createdAt": "2026-10-02T16:00:13.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-02T16:43:13.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 30, "pid": 0, "name": "实时", "pinyin": "hour", "path": "/hour", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

荷姆兹运输恢复 成品油供应仍吃紧

库存缓冲大减

中东成品油出口比战前低40%

原油进入市场成本大增

中东炼油产能下降 柴油与原油价差创纪录

殖利率仍可能走高

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荷姆兹运输恢复成品油供应仍吃紧

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