天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-联准会10月可能按兵不动 12月再按下升息按钮

《路透社》报导，美国联准会(Fed)决策官员原本就倾向本月不连续第二次升息，以争取时间进一步检视经济数据，而周五(2日)公布的就业市场报告显示就业表现低于预期，让这项政策方向得以延续。

联准会10月可能按兵不动 12月再按下升息按钮

不过，接下来公布的数据仍可能改变联准会的判断，尤其是备受关注的消费者物价指数(CPI)通膨数据，将在联准会10月27日至28日政策会议前公布。

美国央行上个月将政策利率调升25个基点，使通膨能「更及时」朝联准会2%的目标迈进。如今，官员正权衡两种风险：如果行动太慢，可能无法有效压低物价压力，但如果升息太快，又可能对劳动市场造成伤害。

联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)仍维持不透露自己认为风险位于何处、利率未来可能走向何方的立场，但他的同僚没有如此沉默。

芝加哥联准银行总裁古尔斯比(Austan Goolsbee)接受《福斯财经网》访问，联准会下次会议究竟应升息还是暂停时表示，「任何选项都有充分空间留在讨论桌上。」

古尔斯比认为最新就业数据显示劳动市场保持稳定。「我认为联准会目前面临的问题在通膨这一边。我们必须密切关注这点，不能让通膨进一步失控。」

美国劳工部周五公布，9月仅新增2.9万个工作机会，低于经济学家预期的9万个，且8月新增就业人数也被下修。

9月失业率为4.2%，高于8月的4.1%。但失业率上升主要是因投入劳动市场的人数增加，而失业救济申请人数维持低档，显示裁员并未出现普遍性增加。薪资成长也有所放缓。

联准会9月升高短期借贷成本后，决策官员释放讯号称，如果伊朗战争及其他推升通膨的冲击持续存在，年底前可能至少再升息一次。

直到本周初，随着和平协议迟迟未能达成，加上贸易紧张局势也成为市场焦点，市场对快速连续升息的预期持续升温，长债殖利率也随之上升，并在周四创下24年新高。房贷利率则突破7%。

但联准会副主席杰佛森(Philip Jefferson)与纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)这周表示，他们希望在进一步采取行动前先看到更多数据，促使交易员大幅降低对10月会议升息的押注。

摩根大通经济学家Michael Feroli表示，周五公布的薪资成长放缓，「应能让决策官员放心，经济并未过热到需要仓促展开升息循环的程度」。

他指出，「现在需要非常强劲的CPI数据，才能让10月会议重新成为可能升息的会议。我们仍预期联准会将在12月会议再次升息，前提是9月与10月的通膨数据显示核心通膨仍具黏性。」

周五的就业报告，是美国11月大选前最后一份全面反映劳动市场状况的重要数据。这场选举将决定美国总统川普所属的共和党能否继续掌控国会参众两院。

在通膨偏高与借贷成本上升的双重压力下，生活成本上升已让选民对执政者处理经济的方式感到不满。不过，整体经济成长仍稳健，劳动市场也维持一定韧性。

根据CME FedWatch，交易员目前认为10月升息的机率约为25%，12月升息的机率则高得多。

Fifth Third经济学家Bill Adams表示，「9月CPI与PPI、加油站价格，以及联准会下次于10月底开会前的地缘政治发展，都比这份就业报告更有可能影响下一次利率决策。」

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运费与炼制成本飙升推升通膨，美国房贷利率突破7%，Fed未来数月升息压力升高。", "pv": 5, "pinyin": "hour", "name": "实时", "path": "/hour" }, { "id": 18379, "title": "欧债疑虑引发避险潮瑞士法郎再成为避险宠儿", "shortTitle": "欧债疑虑引发避险潮瑞士法郎再成为避险宠儿", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620603/l/99d4bc7b2971931fe90560efa5dd322e.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-10-02T12:40:09.000Z", "description": "法国债务疑虑升高，带动瑞士法郎再度成为市场避险焦点，兑欧元创去年4月来最佳一周。
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CME交易量约今年均值4倍，选择权显示资金涌入创四年多新高，ING与德商银称反弹出乎意料。", "pv": 4, "pinyin": "hour", "name": "实时", "path": "/hour" }, { "id": 18380, "title": "美国就业市场降温！9月非农仅增2.9万人、失业率攀升 Fed本月料按兵不动", "shortTitle": "美国就业市场降温！9月非农仅增2.9万人、失业率攀升 Fed", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620598/l/650c6f632b67bb06365c8a156f25cd00.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-10-02T12:35:56.000Z", "description": "9月非农新增2.9万人，远低于预期8.9万人，前值下修至13.3万人
失业率升至4.2%，平均每小时薪资年增3.0%，显示就业市场转弱
数据强化Fed本月按兵不动预期，美股指期货短线走高", "pv": 4, "pinyin": "hour", "name": "实时", "path": "/hour" }, { "id": 18381, "title": "柏瑞投信10/1更名「大都会投信」 30档境内基金全面更名", "shortTitle": "柏瑞投信10/1更名「大都会投信」 30档境内基金全面更名", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620536/l/3b55cb455895a31004c6857bbf13169b.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-10-02T12:17:58.000Z", "description": "柏瑞投信自2026年10月1日起更名为「大都会投信」，旗下30档境内基金同步更名，基金名由「柏瑞」改为「大都会」。
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公司强调经营团队、客户权益、投资目标与风险等级不变，投资人无须办理扣款或帐户变更。", "pv": 4, "pinyin": "hour", "name": "实时", "path": "/hour" }, { "id": 18382, "title": "脱欧十年后再一次公投？英国首相柏南抛「重回欧盟」选项", "shortTitle": "脱欧十年后再一次公投？英国首相柏南抛「重回欧盟」选项", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620579/l/8fa9e6282e7100af2363ebcbc5ef3463.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-10-02T12:10:03.000Z", "description": "柏南称脱欧「弊大于利」，政府将评估与欧盟长期关系选项，含关税同盟、单一市场或重新加入。
他指工党宣言「有可能」纳入重启入欧公投；政府预计11月英欧峰会前提出评估。
汗支持重返关税同盟与单一市场，并称脱欧恐致伦敦少300亿英镑、全国少近200万职位。", "pv": 4, "pinyin": "hour", "name": "实时", "path": "/hour" }, { "id": 18383, "title": "明年能产多少油？美伊战事打乱扩产 OPEC+产能评估被迫延期", "shortTitle": "明年能产多少油？美伊战事打乱扩产 OPEC+产能评估被迫延期", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620606/l/d8891f41b529d45a7021d77d4e977bf3.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-10-02T12:00:06.000Z", "description": "OPEC+原订9月底完成的产能评估延后，现预计11月中旬才完成，作为2027年原油配额协商依据。
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第四季须交付31万1,448辆才避全年下滑；Q3储能部署13.7GWh。", "pv": 4, "pinyin": "hour", "name": "实时", "path": "/hour" }, { "id": 18392, "title": "川普施压后达协议！G7将释出最多1亿桶原油与柴油救油价", "shortTitle": "川普施压后达协议！G7将释出最多1亿桶原油与柴油救油价", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620700/l/4abafff5e9c644dd332f7d992dd46525.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-10-02T15:00:08.000Z", "description": "G7未来4个月释出最多1亿桶原油与柴油紧急库存，盼增加供应、压低燃料价格。
马克宏称行动由IEA协调，各国承诺不实施出口禁令；川普称欧洲已同意立即启动释出柴油。
市场预期供应增加，柴油相对原油溢价下滑；若美国禁柴油出口，恐冲击欧洲与拉丁美洲供应。", "pv": 4, "pinyin": "hour", "name": "实时", "path": "/hour" }, { "id": 18437, "title": "升息预期撑美元摩根士丹利改口看多 DXY年底上看102", "shortTitle": "升息预期撑美元摩根士丹利改口看多 DXY年底上看102", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6616069/l/532892d300d76db54bc5fddbb1397464.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-10-03T03:10:03.000Z", "description": "小摩坦承看空美元预测失准，因能源高涨与美国经济强劲，Fed偏鹰派使升息预期升温。
摩根士丹利将今年底DXY预估由96上修至102，欧元兑美元降至1.12、英镑至1.30，美元兑日元上调至159。
展望2027年中，该行估DXY上看104；另提关税、外汇干预等黑天鹅恐引发美元多头停损卖压。", "pv": 1, "pinyin": "hour", "name": "实时", "path": "/hour" }, { "id": 18443, "title": "7.28%！美国房贷创近3年新高购屋族每月多付276美元", "shortTitle": "7.28%！美国房贷创近3年新高购屋族每月多付276美元", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620933/l/edccc62e717f9be227315ea5dce20495.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-10-03T04:20:06.000Z", "description": "美30年房贷利率升至7.28%，单周涨25个基点，创2022年10月以来最大升幅
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Fed官员称仍待更多数据，10月27日至28日会前将公布CPI，成下一步利率决策关键。
交易员降温10月升息押注至约25%，但市场仍押注12月可能再升息。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620835/l/1500354572070d941cde79afc63f6ba3.jpg", "content": "《路透社》报导，美国联准会(Fed)决策官员原本就倾向本月不连续第二次升息，以争取时间进一步检视经济数据，而周五(2日)公布的就业市场报告显示就业表现低于预期，让这项政策方向得以延续。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620835/l/1500354572070d941cde79afc63f6ba3.jpg\" alt=\"联准会10月可能按兵不动 12月再按下升息按钮\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n不过，接下来公布的数据仍可能改变联准会的判断，尤其是备受关注的消费者物价指数(CPI)通膨数据，将在联准会10月27日至28日政策会议前公布。\n\n美国央行上个月将政策利率调升25个基点，使通膨能「更及时」朝联准会2%的目标迈进。如今，官员正权衡两种风险：如果行动太慢，可能无法有效压低物价压力，但如果升息太快，又可能对劳动市场造成伤害。\n\n联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)仍维持不透露自己认为风险位于何处、利率未来可能走向何方的立场，但他的同僚没有如此沉默。\n\n芝加哥联准银行总裁古尔斯比(Austan Goolsbee)接受《福斯财经网》访问，联准会下次会议究竟应升息还是暂停时表示，「任何选项都有充分空间留在讨论桌上。」\n\n古尔斯比认为最新就业数据显示劳动市场保持稳定。「我认为联准会目前面临的问题在通膨这一边。我们必须密切关注这点，不能让通膨进一步失控。」\n\n美国劳工部周五公布，9月仅新增2.9万个工作机会，低于经济学家预期的9万个，且8月新增就业人数也被下修。\n\n9月失业率为4.2%，高于8月的4.1%。但失业率上升主要是因投入劳动市场的人数增加，而失业救济申请人数维持低档，显示裁员并未出现普遍性增加。薪资成长也有所放缓。\n\n联准会9月升高短期借贷成本后，决策官员释放讯号称，如果伊朗战争及其他推升通膨的冲击持续存在，年底前可能至少再升息一次。\n\n直到本周初，随着和平协议迟迟未能达成，加上贸易紧张局势也成为市场焦点，市场对快速连续升息的预期持续升温，长债殖利率也随之上升，并在周四创下24年新高。房贷利率则突破7%。\n\n但联准会副主席杰佛森(Philip Jefferson)与纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)这周表示，他们希望在进一步采取行动前先看到更多数据，促使交易员大幅降低对10月会议升息的押注。\n\n摩根大通经济学家Michael Feroli表示，周五公布的薪资成长放缓，「应能让决策官员放心，经济并未过热到需要仓促展开升息循环的程度」。\n\n他指出，「现在需要非常强劲的CPI数据，才能让10月会议重新成为可能升息的会议。我们仍预期联准会将在12月会议再次升息，前提是9月与10月的通膨数据显示核心通膨仍具黏性。」\n\n周五的就业报告，是美国11月大选前最后一份全面反映劳动市场状况的重要数据。这场选举将决定美国总统川普所属的共和党能否继续掌控国会参众两院。\n\n在通膨偏高与借贷成本上升的双重压力下，生活成本上升已让选民对执政者处理经济的方式感到不满。不过，整体经济成长仍稳健，劳动市场也维持一定韧性。\n\n根据CME FedWatch，交易员目前认为10月升息的机率约为25%，12月升息的机率则高得多。\n\nFifth Third经济学家Bill Adams表示，「9月CPI与PPI、加油站价格，以及联准会下次于10月底开会前的地缘政治发展，都比这份就业报告更有可能影响下一次利率决策。」\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18383.html\" title=\"明年能产多少油？美伊战事打乱扩产 OPEC+产能评估被迫延期\">明年能产多少油？美伊战事打乱扩产 OPEC+产能评估被迫延期</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18406.html\" title=\"杜拜航空爆重大安检漏洞！副机师遭阿曼禁飞仍获聘\">杜拜航空爆重大安检漏洞！副机师遭阿曼禁飞仍获聘</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18437.html\" title=\"升息预期撑美元摩根士丹利改口看多 DXY年底上看102\">升息预期撑美元摩根士丹利改口看多 DXY年底上看102</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18393.html\" title=\"油轮重返荷姆兹难救通膨！布兰特油价破百炼油瓶颈加剧美债抛售潮\">油轮重返荷姆兹难救通膨！布兰特油价破百炼油瓶颈加剧美债抛售潮</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18391.html\" title=\"连两年下滑后有转机？特斯拉Q3交车胜预期分析师看好全年销量\">连两年下滑后有转机？特斯拉Q3交车胜预期分析师看好全年销量</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-18445.html\" title=\"G7突宣布释放1亿桶战略储备！油价跳水后反弹美伊战事仍是最大变数\">G7突宣布释放1亿桶战略储备！油价跳水后反弹美伊战事仍是最大变数</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 1, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6620835", "createdAt": "2026-10-03T04:30:06.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-03T04:48:40.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 30, "pid": 0, "name": "实时", "pinyin": "hour", "path": "/hour", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

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