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通膨与地缘风险加剧 印度央行时隔近4年首度升息

2026-10-07 14:52:45 网络 阅读(1)

印度央行(RBI)货币政策委员会(MPC)周三(7日)一致通过将基准附买回利率(Repo Rate)调升25个基点(1码)至5.50%,这是自2023年2月以来近四年首度升息。此外,委员会以4比2的票数,决议将政策立场由「中立」转为「权衡紧缩」。

通膨与地缘风险加剧 印度央行时隔近4年首度升息

印度央行总裁马洛特拉(Sanjay Malhotra)发布声明指出:「通膨及其前景已不像去年那般温和,重新调整政策利率已成为当务之急。」他强调,鉴于当前局势,短期内已不可能降息,未来的政策行动仅会是升息或暂停升息,端看经济发展而定。

不过委员会内部出现分歧,外部委员Nagesh Kumar与Ram Singh主张应继续维持「中立」立场。

受中东冲突推升国际油价突破每桶100美元、季风偏弱及卢比承压影响,印度央行将2026-27财年的CPI通膨预测由5.0%上调至5.2%。但受益于强劲内需与第一季高达7.8%的经济成长,央行同步将财年的GDP成长率预测由6.7%大幅上调至7.1%。

针对本次决策,星展银行(DBS Bank)资深经济学家Radhika Rao表示,这次升息承认了周期性通膨风险不再温和,展现出央行强烈的鹰派意图。

邦罕资产管理公司(Bandhan AMC)债券首席投资长Suyash Choudhary认为,立场转变是央行致力确保达成通膨目标的及时信号,并预测后续可能还会再升息100个基点。

Capital Economics 资深亚太经济学家Abhijit Surya指出,鹰派基调支持进一步紧缩,预估央行将于12月与2月各升息1码,使附买回利率达到6%的顶峰。

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分析师估2027年EPS 1.70美元、2031年升至21.05美元,PEG约1.2倍。
Starship第15次测试可望成催化剂,带动Starlink等业务;股价周二收171.92美元,3日涨逾16%。",
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美国仅提供情报、目标与后勤协助,劝阻沙国扩大为全面叶门战争。
华府忧同时深陷伊朗、荷姆兹海峡与叶门战线,并恐推升油价与通膨。",
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事件反映控糖需求升温,消费者多依标签判断。",
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台股明星队改配施罗德台湾乐活中小基金,近1年获利成长率50.7%,提升中小型成长股比重。
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      "shortTitle": "伊朗国防部:伊朗武器产能已达美伊冲突前2.5倍",
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      "title": "台股大涨66%后防高档震荡 联博建议3招卡位4大「AI应用」",
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